Vaughn Dalzell breaks down his best bets for Game 2 of the NBA Finals between the Denver Nuggets and Miami Heat.
Heat at Nuggets (-8.5): O/U 214.5
Denver won Game 1, 104-93, not the fast-paced game nor efficient shooting from deep that I expected.
However, the zig zag theory is in play here and Miami cannot play the same style in Game 2 and expect to break Denver’s 9-0 home record. Teams that have been down 0-2 are practically cooked during a seven-game series throughout NBA history.
The Nuggets shot below their playoff average from three as well as second-chance points, so I expect those both to improve in Game 2. The Heat only attempted two free-throws in Game 1, an NBA Finals record-low, plus Miami shot 33.3% from deep and only 40.6% from the field.
Miami has only reached 100 points once in the past five games and while the recency is against us, I expect the Heat to top 100-plus points here. The Heat can really only improve in all of those areas they struggled in Game 1 and are a strong lean on the spread for me.
Teams that lost and failed to cover in Game 1 of the NBA Finals are 5-4-1 ATS over the last 10 NBA Finals Game 2’s, so not much of a profitable trend.
I will back the zig zag theory on the total and take the Over 214.5 up to 216 for 2 units. I expect this second-half to be more high-scoring than Game 1’s 96 points.
Pick: Over 214.5 (2u)
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