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NBA Play-In Tournament Player Props: Fade Terry Rozier vs the Hawks

Terry Rozier

Terry Rozier

Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports

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Terry Rozier O/U 30.5 PRA vs. Hawks

We have been riding Terry Rozier‘s Unders down the stretch and this line was pretty shocking to me.

Rozier has averaged 11.6 points, 4.3 assists and 4.0 rebounds in three meetings with Atlanta this season (19.9 PRA). Over the last five games entering the play-in tournament, Rozier averaged 17.6 points, 5.8 assists and 4.2 rebounds (27.6 PRA), so this line is pretty high on both accounts.

In his last six meetings versus Atlanta, Rozier has gone Under 30.5 PRA five times (83.3%) and 13 out of the previous 14 (92.8%) as a Hornet and Celtic, per statmuse.

Rozier vs ATL

Rozier vs ATL

Entering this matchup, Rozier hit the Under 30.5 PRA in eight out his last 10 games (80%) and 11 of the past 13 (84.6%) dating back to March 16.

I believe this O/U 30.5 PRA is recency bias because Rozier hit the Over in two of the last three games but they came against the Wizards and Magic. He should smash his Overs and those were two games we avoided one the PRA number.

Rozier L13

Rozier L13

When Rozier plays between 30-and 39 minutes, he has averaged 20.3 points, 4.6 rebounds and 4.4 assists on the season (29.3 PRA).

I expect Rozier to be in that minute range and guys like Miles Bridges and LaMelo Ball to score 20-plus points, more than Rozier. Charlotte will be without Gordon Hayward and Rozier is 9-3 to the Under 30.5 in the last 12 without him (75%).

I have Rozier at 18-5-4, so 27 PRA, giving us an edge.This could be a sweat-free winner or one that comes down to the final minute. Our model predicts 28.8 PRA, so still Under.

I locked Rozier in at -115 odds and would play this at 29.5 or out to -135 odds at 30.5 PRA.

Pick: Terry Rozier Under 30.5 PRA (1u)

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