Damian Lillard O/U 3.5 Three-Pointers vs. Nuggets
Damian Lillard and the Nuggets met for seven hard-fought games in the 2018-19 Western Conference Semifinals. Back at it again for a first round meeting, Lillard will attempt to lead Portland to another series victory over Denver.
Lillard played the Nuggets in the final game of the season, scoring 22 points in 31 minutes of a blowout 16-point win. In the two previous meetings, Lillard scored 22 and 25, going a combined 18-of-44 from the field (40.9%).
From three, Lillard made four, two and five triples, in that order, on nine or more attempts in all three games. Lillard went 11-of-30 (36.6%) from three overall and 9-of-20 (45%) without the outlier game, going two-of-10 (20%).
Lillard scored 30 points in seven straight games before his outing against the Nuggets. Lillard went five-of-seven on his Over 3.5 three-point prop in that stretch. [[ad:athena]]
Denver and Portland both rank bottom of the league over the last 10 games in three-point defense. Both rank 24th and 25th with 36.6 and 38.8 three-point attempts permitted.
Denver allows 14.4 makes from deep, ranking Tied-27th or third-worst. Both squads allow 39.1% from three in that span, Tied-25th.
Lillard was injured from overuse headed into last season’s postseason and it resulted in a shortened Game 4 and him missing Game 5. In the first three games, he played 30 and 43 minutes twice.
In the three postseason series in 2018-19, Lillard averaged 39.8 minutes or more in every series. When Lillard plays 40 or more minutes this season, he averages 36.7 points and 4.4 made three-pointers in seven games.
Lillard hit the Over 28.5 Points in six of those seven games of 40 minute-plus minutes. He hit the Over 3.5 made three-pointers in five. Both great results. In games of 37 or more minutes, Lillard has a 60% success rate on both props.
I like his points prop at 28.5, but I love his three-pointer prop. Lillard should knock down four triples across four quarters and possibly 40 minutes. I would be tempted to play the Over 4.5 three-pointers, pivoting to the Over 28.5 point prop.
With the Nuggets being without Jamal Murray, we could see a shootout or an array of three-pointers from Lillard, C.J. McCollum and Michael Porter Jr.
Pick: Damian Lillard Over 3.5 Three-Pointers (1u)
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