Nikola Vucevic Over/Under 21.5 Points vs. Magic
Revenge, sweet, sweet revenge. Nikola Vucevic was traded from Orlando to Chicago at the trade deadline and the Bulls accepted him with open arms. Over the last six games, Chicago won three straight games before losing three straight, but this is a perfect game for Vucevic to get Chicago back in the win column.
In wins with Chicago, Vucevic has averaged 25.3 points per game (PPG) with 22, 22 and 32 points in three victories. In his first 10 games with the Bulls, Vucevic has scored 21 or more points in seven outings, going Over 21.5 in five.
Vucevic averages 24.0 PPG on the season and in the seven games, he played 30 or more minutes with Chicago, Vucevic averaged 23.2 PPG. In his short 10 games with the Bulls, the big man is bringing in 21.8 PPG on 50.2% from the field, 42.1% from three and 86.4% from the free-throw line.
I like the chances he goes for 25-plus versus his former squad. [[ad:athena]]
Chicago is coming off a five-game road trip to come home, which is a positive for this team. NBC’s model projects Vucevic to score 21.3 points, calling it close to the line, but based on how he has performed in Chicago’s three wins with him, this line is appropriate.
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Orlando allows 50.4 points in the paint per game over the last five contests (18th) and 13.8 second-chance points (21st). Vucevic is scoring 39.4% of his points in the paint and 31.9% from three. The Magic rank 27th in the last five games allowing opponents to hit 49.6% from the field and rank second to the last from three at 41.7%.
Vucevic has attempted at least three triples in every game with Chicago and attempted at least 17 field goals in seven-of-10 games, so he is getting his fill on offense. I would not be surprised to see him more aggressive on the boards as well, resulting in some second-chance points.
When Vucevic posts 19 or more field goal attempts, he averages 24.0 points per game with the Bulls. NBC’s model projects 18.8 tonight. I like that number more and feel comfortable with Vucevic getting 20 shots up as teammates will likely let him work down low more often tonight, not to mention a few three-pointers, because why not.
Vucevic will also go against Wendell Carter Jr. He was dealt in the trade for Vucevic, so he will be more than motivated for this matchup as well. The battle between the two will be interesting, but I am backing Vucevic to surpass 21 points, while I lean Wendell Carter’s Over 14.5 Points.
Pick: Nikola Vucevic Over 21.5 Points (1u)
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