ECF Player Prop: Bucks vs Hawks, Bobby Portis O/U 8.5 Rebounds
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Bobby Portis O/U 8.5 Rebounds vs. Hawks
Giannis Antetokounmpo will be out for Game 5, so the Bucks will need more than a few role players to step up.
Without Giannis, the Bucks’ Bobby Portis is my favorite player to do so. Over the Hawks series, Portis is coming off the bench averaging 10.3 points and 5.5 rebounds in 17.8 minutes per game.
Portis played 21 minutes in Game 4, his most of the series, and posted seven points and seven rebounds in the blowout. He should easily surpass that minute total in Game 5 as the Bucks need an interior presence.
It is not confirmed whether or not Portis will start, but I like the Over on his rebound total if he does. Brook Lopez will likely stick to being a three-point specialist and continue to camp out in the corner for kick-outs.
The Hawks’ Clint Capela is battling an eye injury and questionable. Trae Young is also tagged as questionable with an ankle injury that kept him out in Game 4. John Collins has had foul trouble in all four games, so he is someone I cannot even look at for props.
All of those factors give Portis the green light for rebounds and interior scoring. Portis can guard Capela or Collins, which will bode well for rotational minutes if he is not in the starting lineup.
Portis has started seven games this season and averaged 14.4 points and 11.4 rebounds in 29.4 minutes per game.
NBC’s model projects Portis to record 8.5 rebounds in 29 minutes versus the Hawks. In the seven starts, Portis went 5-2 to the Over (71.4%) with eight and seven rebounds in the two Unders.
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When Portis plays 30-plus minutes, he averages 16.3 points and 11.0 rebounds per game (three games and three starts). When Portis plays between 20-29 minutes, the Bucks’ big man averages 13.7 points and 8.3 rebounds in 32 contests (four starts).
A lot of playing Portis or any of the Bucks/Hawks could be waiting for starting lineups. However, Portis should receive significant run with Giannis out, whether he starts or comes off the bench.
Both teams were equal in boards Game 4 with 43 apiece. Over the four-game series, the Bucks average 46.3 rebounds per game compared to 40.8 for the Hawks. For the Bucks to keep winning the rebound battle, Portis will need to be on the floor.
When he plays 25-plus minutes, he has a 62.5% hit rate to the Over in 10-of-16 games. I will ride with that in Game 5 at home versus the Hawks.
Pick: Bobby Portis Over 8.5 Rebounds (1u)
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