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Derrick Rose O/U 20.5 Points vs. Hawks
Game 4 in Atlanta will be one to remember, and if it is anything like Games 1-3, Derrick Rose and Trae Young should be in for another battle.
Rose scored 17 in Game 1 and 26 in Game 2. As a starter in Game 3, Rose dropped 30 points in 39 minutes, replacing Elfrid Payton.
Rose has 21 field goal attempts in his last two games each and increased his three-pointers made each outing. Rose has scored 20, 17, 26 and 30 points in his last four games versus Atlanta.
NBC’s model projects Rose to score 23.7 points in 37 minutes of action. In Games 1-3, Rose has played 38, 39 and 39 minutes while sliding into the starting lineup seamlessly.
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The former MVP has new life this season, and starring in the playoffs is nothing new to Rose. At 35 or more minutes this season, Rose has scored 17, 23, 27, 17, 26 and 30 points, hitting the Over 4-of-6 times (66.7%) per props.cash.
Rose is a hot commodity worth riding in this series. Expect 35 or more minutes for Rose, and with the Knicks down 2-1 to the Hawks in Atlanta, Rose will keep shooting.
Not to mention Julius Randle (13/54) and R.J. Barrett (13/38) are a combined 26-of-92 (28.2%) shooting in the series.
Rose is shooting 30-of-58 (51.7%) from the field versus the Hawks in the postseason, 6-of-12 (50%) from three and 7-of-7 (100%) from the free-throw line.
Both are leans on Barrett and Randle Under point props, while I will go Over on Rose’s 20.5 points.
Pick: Derrick Rose Over 20.5 Points (1u)
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Trae Young O/U 25.5 Points vs. Knicks
Trae Young has been the most unstoppable player of the series and dominating force for the Hawks.
I rode Young’s point prop three times and sit at 2-1 on the series. Taking this a fourth time seems better after an outlier performance in Game 3.
Young played 37 minutes in Game 3, the most in the series. When Young has played 37 minutes or more on the season, he hits the Over 25.5 points in 8-of-12 (66.7%) games and 10-of-12 (83.3%) at 24.5 points.
This means Young’s Game 3 Under at 21 points on 8-of-19 (42.1%) from the field could be an outlier. That is only the fourth time all season or second time all season at 37-plus minutes that he failed to hit the Over at that playing time, depending on the line you got.
NBC’s model projects Young to total 25.6 points in 34 minutes of action. Young has scored 26 or more points in 25-of-40 (62.5%) games at 34 or more minutes per props.cash.
When the NBC simulator’s set at 37 minutes for Young, he’s projected to score 27.8 points. I see another healthy 35 plus minute game from Young, considering a chance to go up 3-1 on the Knicks at home is a must.
Against the Knicks on the season, Young has scored 31, 23, 20, 32, 30 and 21 points, including the postseason.
Young has scored 20 or more points every game versus the Knicks. When he played 35 or more minutes, Young scored 31, 23, 32, 30 and 21 versus New York.
I like the chances Young goes for 30 points in Game 4 and Game 5, as he is playing some of his best basketball of the season.
Pick: Trae Young Over 25.5 Points (1u)
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