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Bradley Beal O/U 31.5 Points vs. 76ers
This series just got a whole lot more interesting!
Joel Embiid suffered an apparent injury and will miss Game 5 in Philadelphia, putting pressure on the 76ers’ role players to send Washington home.
The Wizards stole Game 4 behind using the “Hack-A-Shaq” tactics on Ben Simmons.
Bradley Beal led the Wizards in scoring with 27 points on 9-of-23 from the field (39.1%) in Game 4.
Beal did his usual damage, picking up 13 points from the free-throw line (7/8) and three (2/5) in addition to his inside game. With Embiid out, I question how the interior will be when defending the likes of Beal and Russell Westbrook.
Beal scored 31, 60, 19, 33, 33, 25 and 27 points against the 76ers this season and Embiid played in every outing. It will be interesting to see how the 76ers will defend the rim with Dwight Howard, Tony Bradley and Mike Scott as the bench bigs.
Beal and Westbrook could both have their way around the rim and if Beal gets the three-ball going -- watch out.
NBC’s model projects Beal to record 30.4 points in 39 minutes of action on 23.7 field goal attempts. Beal has to play around 37 minutes or more in order to score 32 or more points. With every game being a must-win and the Wizards on the road, expect Beal to bring his A-game.
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Game 5 will be played in Philadelphia, like the first two games of the series where Beal scored 33 points apiece. In his two regular-season trips to Philly, Beal scored 31 and 60 points, so he definitely feels the City of Brotherly Love with four straight 30 burgers.
When he plays 40 or more minutes this season and postseason, Beal has scored at least 30 points in six of those eight but went Over 31.5 in five (62.5%). At 37 or more minutes, Beal has a hit rate to the Over 31.5 points in 65% on 13-of-20 games on the season per props.cash.
Beal has attempted at least five three-pointers in all four games and six or more in three. The Wizards star guard has made a living at the free-throw line, making 80.7% on 21-of-26 in four games -- the same exact makes, attempts and percentage as his three combined regular-season totals versus Philly.
I expect 38 or more minutes from Beal in Game 5. He is averaging 39.0 for the series and when he plays 38-plus, Beal has hit the Over in five of the last seven outings.
In his last few playoff games facing elimination (not including Game 4), Beal scored 32 points in 43 minutes against Toronto (2018) and prior to that, Beal did 33 points in 43 minutes and 38 points in 46 minutes against Boston (2017).
Back Beal to lead the game in scoring, or at least the Wizards, as he is due for a 30-burger with a side of fries.
Pick: Bradley Beal Over 31.5 Points (1u)
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