LeBron James O/U 42.5 PRA vs. Warriors
The most notable game of the season is here. LeBron James and the Lakers take on Stephen Curry and the Warriors in the NBA’s first-ever play-in tournament.
The battle for the seventh seed will be underway at 10 PM ET and we all will be forced to stay up for this game.
Last year, LeBron claimed his fourth NBA Finals Championship and posted incredible numbers during that span. This year he has an ankle issue that caused him to miss times, but we all know he will be 110% in the playoffs despite his comments.
In 2020-21, LeBron averaged 25.0 points, 7.8 assists and 7.7 rebounds in 45 games and 33.4 minutes per game, his lowest minutes and games played of his career. [[ad:athena]]
That is alarming to some, but I think this was partially planned at 36-years-old for another title run.
When LeBron plays 30-39 minutes this season, The King averages 26.1 points, 8.2 assists and 8.2 rebounds (42.5 PRA). In his last four games at 30 or more minutes, LeBron has averaged 43.5 PRA.
At 36 minutes, NBC’s model predicts LeBron to record 26.7 points, 7.9 assists and 7.4 rebounds. He played 38 minutes in his first meeting with Golden State this season.
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LeBron played the Warriors three times this season, finding success in each outing.
The previous meeting was his best performance of the three. LeBron scored 22 points and triple-doubled with 11 assists and 10 rebounds.
In the other two meetings, LeBron posted 19 points, six rebounds and four assists in 24 minutes, plus 19 points, five rebounds and five assists in 38 minutes of the first outing.
In the playoffs last year, across four series, LeBron’s minimum averages were 25.8 points, 10.2 rebounds and 7.4 assists. He hit the Over 42.5 PRA 12 out of the last 16 times in the postseason and 16 out of 21 total.
I believe there is value on the 42.5 right now, as this number should be around 45.5 or higher once the first-round commences. I will take the value now and ride it as LeBron gets better and better each series.
Pick: LeBron James Over 42.5 PRA (1.5u)
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