Vaughn Dalzell predicts the outcomes for the Magic at Cavaliers pivotal Game 5 and a series-closing effort from the Knicks hosting the 76ers.
Magic at Cavaliers (-4.5): O/U 200.5
I didn’t get the Cavaliers sweep like I’d hoped, but we have a series now that Orlando won both Games 3 and 4, meaning the series is tied 2-2.
Orlando put up a dominant effort in Game 3’s home win (121-83) and a valiant second half in Game 4’s win (112-89), but this series has shown it may be all about home-court advantage as Cleveland won both home games too.
The Magic will be a serious problem and hold plenty of size and rebounding mismatches versus most teams, but I still like the way Cleveland matches up with Orlando and the three-point shooting edge for the Cavs, especially at home.
Orlando shot 17-of-72 from distance (23.6%) at Cleveland in Games 1 and 2 (86 and 83 points) compared to Orlando’s 25-of-63 (39.6%) from three in Orlando.
As you can imagine, the three-point line will be a significant factor tonight since the road team has failed to score more than 89 points in all four games of this series. All four victors have won by 10 or more points in this series too.
I played Cleveland on the spread at -4.5 and -110 odds and the Under 201 and 200.5 at -110 odds. I would go out to -5 and 200 for the total.
Pick: Cavaliers -4.5 (1u), Under 200.5 (1u)
76ers at Knicks (-4): O/U 204.0
Philly scored 16 points in the fourth quarter of Game 4 with 25% from the field and 11% from three in a devastating home loss to set the 76ers back 3-1 in the series.
The 76ers got 38% from the field out of Tyrese Maxey and Joel Embiid for the entire game, plus a negative rebounding edge (-10) in the loss despite New York running with a seven-man rotation and foul trouble (two players had five fouls).
I don’t have much faith in Kyle Lowry (10.5 PPG), Kelly Oubre (12.0 PPG), or Tobias Harris (8.8 PPG) to go out and get the 76ers 15-plus points, which is what they desperately needed in Game 4.
While New York’s Josh Hart (4 PTS) and Donte DiVincenzo (8 PTS) combined for 12 points in the Game 4 win, Bogdan Bogdanovic only registered one minute off the bench and appears done for the series.
Both teams are banged up with Joel Embiid and Jalen Brunson not 100 percent and most role players involved showed in Game 4 that even open shots aren’t guaranteed this deep in the postseason.
Every possession will be pivotal for the Knicks to close out the series and every possession will carry extra weight for the 76ers to avoid elimination. I expect defense to be the priority of both teams and we see a slugfest.
I played the Under 204 at -110 odds on FanDuel and would go down to 202 before taking some shots on Unders at +200 or better. I have the Knicks to win the series (-118) and Game 1, plus the series (+170), so +2.7 units are on the way with a New York win.
Pick: Knicks vs 76ers Under 204.0 (1u)
Season Record: 48-39 (55.1%) +9.85 units
NBA Futures in my pocket
3u: Boston Celtics to win the Eastern Conference (-125)
Risk 2u: Clippers vs Mavericks Series Over 5.5 Games (-195)
Risk 2u: Cavaliers to win series vs Magic (-184)
1u: Cavaliers to win Game 1 vs Magic and series (-110)
1u: Knicks to win series vs 76ers (-118)
1u: Knicks to win Game 1 vs 76ers and series (+170)
1u: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander for MVP (+300)
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