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Davante Adams Over 7.5 Receptions and TD vs. 49ers
Davante Adams has met the 49ers three times in his career and recorded seven, 10 and 10 receptions on 12, 12 and 16 targets, per statmuse.
When Aaron Rodgers plays his favorite childhood team, it is evident that Adams is the recipient of a majority of the passes.
The 49ers are having major problems at the cornerback position to start the season. With Adams on deck, I am nervous for San Francisco.
Veteran Josh Norman (questionable) started the last game and San Fran has fifth-round rookie Deommodore Lenoir playing a larger amount of snaps than they would like. The 49ers signed Dre Kirkpatrick and have K’Waun Williams and Emmanuel Moseley (questionable) at the corner positions as rotating pieces.
With all the moving parts and chemistry being an issue, I see Rodgers and Adams picking apart this secondary. So far, the 49ers have played the Lions and Eagles through two weeks.
Pick: Davante Adams Over 7.5 Receptions (1u), Anytime Touchdown (2u)
Justin Herbert Over 286.5 Passing Yards vs. Chiefs
Justin Herbert is one of the brightest stars in the NFL and he will meet certified superstar Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs for one of the most exciting matchups of the early NFL season.
Herbert has found success in his young career, hitting Over 286.5 passing yards 11 out of 17 times (64.7%). Over the past three games, Herbert has cashed the Over all three times and four of the last five with 300-plus yards.
Four of his six career games against AFC West opponents went Over this total and he has five games of 278-plus passing yards per statmuse.
The Chiefs’ defense has surrendered eight plays of 20 or more yards through the air and four plays of 40 or more yards (the most) through the air in two weeks.
Through two games for Herbert, he is third in catchable pass rate (84.1%), ninth in accuracy rating (8.0) and 11th in air yards per attempt (8.7), per PlayerProfiler.
With 675 passing yards to start the season (4th), Herbert will need a 300-yard effort to hang around with the Chiefs. Herbert tossed 302 and 311 yards as a rookie with four touchdowns and one interception on 44/66 passing (66.7%) versus Kansas City.
I like the chances he surpasses 300 yards for the 11th time in his short 18-game career. Play this up to 300+ alternative as the 286.5 line is gone.
Pick: Justin Herbert Over 286.5 Passing Yards (1.5u)
Justin Jefferson Over 73.5 Receiving Yards vs. Seahawks
Well, NBC’s model projects Justin Jefferson to hit 103.1 receiving yards, giving him an excellent value. Jefferson’s worst game also came against the Seahawks with only 23 receiving yards and you know he remembers that.
Jefferson’s average target air yards is 12.1 through two games, two winless games, I might add. The urgency is on to get a victory, especially at home versus the 2-0 Seahawks.
With Dalvin Cook drawing questions regarding his status, Jefferson’s value increases whether he is limited or out.
Jefferson has 70-plus yards in 11 of 18 career games (61.1%), had 65 or more in five straight and 64-plus in 10 of the last 11 (90.9%).
Against a Seahawks secondary that was awful last season and allowed 543 through two games (22nd) -- back Jefferson for a second straight Sunday.
I grabbed this at -130 odds and would play this out to 79.5 yards as I think he can have a big day against this Seattle secondary.
Pick: Justin Jefferson Over 73.5 Receiving Yards (1u)
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George Kittle Over 58.5 Receiving Yards vs. Packers
George Kittle has met the Packers twice in his career, back in 2018 and 2019.
He had 129 receiving yards in the last meeting (2019) on six receptions and six targets. In his first-ever meeting, Kittle had four receptions on six targets and 30 yards.
In his last 15 games versus NFC opponents, Kittle has hit 68 or more receiving yards in 12 of them (80%), per statmuse.
NBC’s model projects Kittle to hit 67.1 receiving yards on 5.4 receptions and 7.0 targets. Kittle has 55 or more yards in five of his last seven regular-season games.
The Packers surrendered nine targets and eight receptions to Lions’ T.J. Hockenson for 66 yards and one touchdown. The Saints Juwan Johnson scored two touchdowns on his two receptions, so tight ends have dominated Green Bay thus far.
As the 49ers attempt to keep pace with the Packers, it will take a guy like Kittle to move the chains and make splash plays.
Per PlayerProfiler, Kittle had the third-best catch rate (76.9%), the second-best yards per target (10.1) and an 88.8% catchable target rate, which ranked fifth in 2020.
Bet on Kittle to show up on SNF and expect his receiving line to be more around the 63.5-64.5 line come Sunday.
Based on history and the NBC projection, I would play this up to 64.5 before seeing no value on this prop.
Pick: George Kittle Over 58.5 Receiving Yards (1u)
Matt Ryan Over 1.5 Passing TDs vs. Giants
The New York Giants have struggled against opposing quarterbacks to start 2021, starting with Teddy Bridgewater and Taylor Heinicke (yikes).
Both quarterbacks tossed two scores on the Giants and dating back to last season, four of the previous five QBs threw two or more touchdowns.
To start Matt Ryan‘s 2021 campaign, he did not record a single passing touchdown versus the Eagles but bounced back with two against the Buccaneers last week.
In six of the last 10 games, Ryan has tossed two or more touchdown passes per statmuse.
With Calvin Ridley and Kyle Pitts, it’s easy to see why two touchdowns is possible against New York.
Pick: Matt Ryan Over 1.5 Passing TDs (1u)
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Clyde Edwards-Helaire 50+ Rushing Yards vs. Chargers
Clyde Edwards-Helaire will meet the Chargers for the second time in his career as he looks to improve the first two games of the 2021 season.
CEH recorded 42 and 46 rushing yards on 13 and 14 attempts in each of the first two games. CEH has 13 or more rushing attempts in five of his last six games (83.3%) and nine out of 17 total (52.9%). His rushing attempt prop is set at 13.5.
The Chargers have struggled to defend the ground game and opposing running backs thus far. The Cowboys’ Ezekiel Elliot and Tony Pollard found plenty of success on the ground and through the air versus LA.
Pollard combined for 142 total yards on 13 rushes and three receptions, while Elliot received 18 touches and totaled 97 yards. Both backs found the end zone.
Los Angeles also allowed Antonio Gibson to go for 90 yards on the ground via 20 carries, and Gibson finished with 108 total yards on 23 touches.
That means three running backs posted more than 50 rushing yards versus the Chargers and combined for 97-plus total yards. NBC’s model projects CEH to record 56.7 rushing yards, giving us some value to the 50+ rushing yards.
While CEH has disappointed fantasy owners in two weeks, this could be the game he goes for 50-plus rushing yards and finds the end zone after two games just short of this number.
CEH owns the third-ranked opportunity share of all running backs (85.7%) and faced a light front of six defenders or fewer in 63% of his on-field snaps, which is 13th-best, per PlayerProfiler.
That should allow him to break open a few runs and take advantage of what should be a positive game script come the fourth quarter.
Pick: Clyde Edwards-Helaire 50+ Rushing Yards (1u)
Week 3 Collab Plays!
Like last week, you meet some awesome people in the prop community and sometimes it is better to think with two minds than one.
I collab with my friend @DFSPropBomb for this week’s action and we love Jalen Hurts’ passing yards and Stefon Diggs’ reception prop. Check out our Twitters and come make money with a simple follow.
#NFL Collab @DFSPropBomb 🏈
— Vaughn Dalzell (@VmoneySports) September 25, 2021
1u
Stefon Diggs vs WFT
Over 6.5 Receptions (+100) PB
Discounted line after blowout vs MIA!
WFT will put pressure on Allen which gives Diggs tons of chances for quick hitter routes.
NBC model projects 9.4 catches 👀
Hit this 8 of L10🔥#PlayerProps pic.twitter.com/zKmeARoVAb
1.5u - Jalen Hurts OVER 236.5 PassYds (-115 @ DK) Collab w/ @VmoneySports
— Prop Bomb 🏝️ (@PropBomb) September 24, 2021
Line opened low. He’s hit 3/3 time when on the road. Very favorable matchup on MNF. Threw for 342 PassYds in 2020 vs DAL. Now he has better weapons + stud DE Demarcus Lawrence is ruled out. #PlayerProps pic.twitter.com/9wdwREonkI
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