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The NFL regular season concludes with the first-ever Week 18 beginning on Saturday. Six of the eight divisions are locked up, resulting in some rest situations for the division winners, but there are still two divisions undecided and three playoff berths up for grabs. I spoke to Michael Korn at PointsBet Sportsbook to get betting splits and insights on the most interesting spreads of Week 18.
| Team | Open | Current | Bet Count % | Handle % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kansas City Chiefs | -10 | -10.5 | 83 | 92 |
| Denver Broncos | ||||
| Dallas Cowboys | -2.5 | -7 | 54 | 82 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | ||||
| Indianapolis Colts | -9.5 | -15.5 | 61 | 83 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | ||||
| Tennessee Titans | -10.5 | -10 | 57 | |
| Houston Texans | 64 | |||
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 62 | |||
| Baltimore Ravens | -4 | -5.5 | 63 | |
| Green Bay Packers | -2.5 | -4 | 90 | 95 |
| Detroit Lions | ||||
| Chicago Bears | ||||
| Minnesota Vikings | -3.5 | -4 | 65 | 80 |
| Washington Football Team | -6.5 | -7 | ||
| New York Giants | 86 | 87 | ||
| Cincinnati Bengals | ||||
| Cleveland Browns | -1.5 | -6 | 66 | 82 |
| San Francisco 49ers | 69 | |||
| Los Angeles Rams | -5.5 | -4.5 | 54 | |
| New England Patriots | -5.5 | -6.5 | 81 | 65 |
| Miami Dolphins | ||||
| New Orleans Saints | -4 | -4.5 | 54 | |
| Atlanta Falcons | 55 | |||
| Carolina Panthers | ||||
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | -8 | -8 | 83 | 58 |
| New York Jets | ||||
| Buffalo Bills | -17 | -16 | 82 | 91 |
| Seattle Seahawks | ||||
| Arizona Cardinals | -6.5 | -6.5 | 75 | 83 |
| Los Angeles Chargers | -3 | -3 | 70 | 76 |
| Las Vegas Raiders |
Each of the Week 18 games will be played over the weekend, with no Thursday or Monday games this week. The slate kicks off with the Kansas City Chiefs visiting the Denver Broncos as double-digit favorites. Kansas City struggled to cover big spreads last season but went 2-1 ATS as double-digit favorites so far this year. Early bets are heavily slanted to the Chiefs with over 90% of the handle favoring Kansas City, and the line moved from -10 to -10.5.
The other Saturday game is a NFC East clash between the Dallas Cowboys and the Philadelphia Eagles. The Cowboys opened inside the key number of -3 at -2.5 and moved all the way to -7. Jalen Hurts has been limited in practice this week and could rest in a mostly-meaningless game for the Eagles, who clinched a playoff spot last week. Korn thinks that the move might be overreacting to the QB’s status with Philadelphia sporting a capable backup in Gardner Minshew.
“This might have been an over-adjustment to be honest, there’s definitely a gap but Minshew is not a huge step down from Hurts so I wouldn’t be surprised if there is some buyback on this line,” Korn said. “It’s not going to get back to the 2.5/3 area but I don’t think it will get out to 7.5, it will either stay here or move in the Eagles’ direction.”
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Sunday’s early slate includes a few teams trying to solidify playoff seeding against inferior opponents, resulting in some big spreads. The Colts opened at -9.5 but moved all the way to -15.5 against the Jaguars. Indianapolis needs a win to clinch a playoff spot and with the Colts having far more incentive than the Jaguars, who currently lead in the race for the first overall pick, PointsBet Sportsbook has taken a “steady stream of Colts money” with over 80% of the handle on Indianapolis, according to Korn.
The Titans have a chance to clinch the AFC’s top seed with a win over the Houston Texans. Tennessee is favored by 10 on the road after the spread dropped from an opener of 10.5. This game received solid two-way action with 57% of bets on the Titans but 64% of the handle on Houston, driving the move down to -10.
The Green Bay Packers are favored by four points in Detroit but with the Packers locking up the NFC’s top seed, there’s a strong chance the team rests some key players. The line opened at -2.5 but shifted up to -4 with heavy money on the Packers after MVP favorite Aaron Rodgers claimed he would play for some of Sunday’s game. It is rare for an Aaron Rodgers-led Packers team to be favored by so few points against the Lions. Rodgers is 10-6 (62.5%) ATS throughout his career when favored by less than 10 points against Detroit.
“The line is definitely baking in Rodgers not playing,” Korn said. “The fact that he said he may play is why it moved from -2.5 to -4 but if they needed this game the line would obviously not be this small. The uncertainty of how long he will play is the question, and it seems that any amount of Rodgers is enough for people to lay -2.5 or -3 comfortably.”
The Baltimore Ravens and Pittsburgh Steelers are both still alive in the playoff hunt but neither team controls their own destiny. The spread opened at Ravens -4 and moved up to -5.5 in what is likely Ben Roethlisberger‘s last game of his career. Betting on Roethlisberger as an underdog against the Ravens would yield +1.45 units on the spread and +2.44 units on the moneyline throughout his career, but sharp bettors are skeptical Roethlisberger will end his career with a win.
“The splits explain the move here, it’s going in Baltimore’s direction,” Korn said. “The move isn’t significant in terms of key numbers but the money coming in on the Ravens is sharp enough for us to start moving that line.”
One of the most interesting games of the week is the battle in Ohio between the Cincinnati Bengals and the Cleveland Browns. The spread opened at Browns -1.5 and flipped to Bengals -3 before moving back down to Bengals -1. The line then shifted all the way back to Browns -5.5 and now rests at -6. All of this movement is due to a number of anticipated absences on both sides, with Cleveland expected to play without Baker Mayfield and the Bengals missing Joe Burrow and Joe Mixon. Between 10:53 AM and 2:08 PM EST on Wed. Jan. 6, the line moved nine points in just over three hours.
“Burrow himself is worth around a touchdown and then the extra couple points is a domino effect of expecting some other Bengals to not play as well,” Korn said. “We were being proactive and moving it maybe further than we would have because we knew we’d be getting Browns money.”
Ja’Marr Chase had a dominant game for the Bengals last week, helping the team beat Kansas City and clinch the AFC North (while also carrying two of my fantasy teams to championships). Chase began the Sunday as +350 underdog for Offensive Rookie of the Year but overtook Mac Jones and now sits at -250 to win the award. Jones reached odds of -770 as recently as late December but now is listed at +190 on PointsBet Sportsbook.
The most important game of the late afternoon slate could be the NFC West showdown in Los Angeles, where the Rams can clinch the division with a win. San Francisco still has plenty to play for too, since the 49ers are one of two teams still in play for the NFC’s final playoff berth. Quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo missed last week’s game with a thumb injury and was limited in practice this week, but Kyle Shanahan claimed he will wait until game time to announce the team’s starting quarterback. Rookie Trey Lance looked good in a 23-7 win over Houston last week, and bettors are confident in San Francisco regardless of who starts at QB. Despite 54% of the bet count on LA, the Rams moved from -5.5 to -4.5 with 69% of the handle on the 49ers. The Rams received twice as many bets and double the handle compared to second-place Arizona in the NFC West division market.
“The public probably just sees that the Rams need to win for the division,” Korn said. “People love to bet on LA’s star power.”
The New England Patriots moved from -5.5 to -6.5 against the Miami Dolphins with 81% of the bet count on New England. Only 65% of the handle came in on New England despite the Dolphins already being eliminated from the playoffs. This could be a big game for New England, as they can pass Buffalo for the AFC East with a win and a Bills loss to the Jets. The Patriots received more AFC Championship bets than the Bills at PointsBet Sportsbook but Korn noted that the gap is shrinking since the last Bills/Patriots game and Buffalo actually surpassed New England in Super Bowl bets.
The spread for Buffalo’s game against the Jets opened at -17 but moved down to -16. Bettors are supporting the Jets early in the week despite Buffalo having far more to play for on Sunday. Over 90% of the handle is on New York after Zach Wilson nearly led the Jets to an upset over Tom Brady and the Buccaneers last week.
“This is the most lopsided game in terms of Jets money all season,” Korn said. “They’ve looked okay the last couple of weeks and so with that recency bias, people see a big number and want to take the Jets.”
The NFC South matchup between the Carolina Panthers and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers hasn’t moved from the opener of Bucs -8 despite the consensus favoring Tampa Bay. Only 58% of the handle is on the Buccaneers despite 83% of the bet count coming in on the Bucs, and Korn sees the potential for a surprising move.
“With so many bets on the Bucs I don’t think it will move through 8 since it hasn’t already,” Korn said. “I’d say the sharp side is the Panthers and I wouldn’t be surprised if it drops to -7.5 if more Panthers money comes in.”
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