Week 6 was a good one! After a slight winning week that started off 0-3 thanks to a pitiful Eagles performance at MetLife, it’s time to run it back, and yes, I am back to betting an Eagles game again!
Here are my five early best bets for the week with more to come before Sunday! Be sure to check out DraftKings for all the latest game odds & team props for every matchup this week on the NFL schedule!
Steelers (-5.5) at Bengals: O/U 44.5
As a Steelers fan, I circled this one when I heard Joe Flacco was traded to the Bengals. On a short week and going on the road after beating the Browns in a rivalry game, this is likely where Pittsburgh gets caught napping.
Flacco is an upgrade to Jake Browning and his current play, and while the first half against the Packers was rough, Cincinnati showed life in the second-half scoring all 18 points.
Pittsburgh’s four wins this year are against Justin Fields, Drake Maye, Carson Wentz, and Dillon Gabriel, essentially three backups when the year is over, so the defensive numbers are bit inflated (lost to Sam Darnold). While Flacco isn’t much better, if at all, then the names previously mentioned, he’s played Pittsburgh plenty and relishes this rivalry.
After four straight losses, I think the Bengals get a win and snap the Steelers three-game winning streak. I played Cincy +5.5 and the ML at +215 odds. Being this an AFC North battle with two quarterbacks in their 40’s on short rest — I think it’s logical to sprinkle $5 or $10 on no touchdowns to be scored at +11000 odds or OT at +1400.
Pick: Bengals +5.5 (1 unit), Bengals ML (0.5 unit)
Saquon Barkley O/U 69.5 Rushing Yards vs Vikings
After four consecutive games going Under his rushing prop, I am buying into Saquon Barkley bouncing back in a big way against the Vikings.
Barkley had his best outing in a month against his former Giants’ team. Barkley ran 12 times for 58 yards after three straight of 46 or fewer yards. After 18 or more carries in the first four games (4-0 record), Barkley received six and 12 carries in the past two (0-2 record) — something that obviously won’t work.
Quinshon Judkins went for 110 yards and two touchdowns on 23 carries against Minnesota, Kenneth Gainwell totaled 99 yards and two touchdowns on 19 attempts, and Bijan Robinson amassed 143 rushing yards on 22 carries. Minnesota has had its problems stopping the run this year and that should excite Barkley and Eagles fans this Sunday.
I played Barkley over 69.5 rushing yards at -112 odds. I’d go out to 73.5, but I expect this to close above 75 yards.
Pick: Saquon Barkley Over 69.5 Rushing Yards (2 units)
Dolphins at Browns (-2.5): O/U 40.5
In Dillon Gabriel’s two starts, he played overseas in London, then traveled back across the pond to play in Pittsburgh. Now, in Cleveland, this is the best setup for him to succeed.
Cleveland should have the crowd, excitement, and some type of game script behind them here early, plus being a favorite is a good sign. The Browns and Dolphins are two of the bottom five first-quarter scoring offenses, but I think the Browns can cook a little.
Miami’s defense allowed four of six opponents to score in the first quarter with the Jets and Panthers being the exceptions and they should have scored. The Dolphins have now blown the past two games, so heading to Cleveland will be a spot where they are confident or come out lackluster.
I like the Browns in the first quarter to score Over 3.5 points in the first quarter at +130 odds.
Pick: Browns 1Q Team Total Over 3.5 (1 unit)
Giants at Broncos (-7): O/U 40.5
As soon as I saw this on the schedule, I said that’s an Under game, so I am going to trust my gut. I played the Under 40.5 points scored at -115 odds and here’s why.
The New York Giants experience has been a fun ride over the last three weeks. Jaxson Dart has a 2-1 record and New York is coming off a season-high 34 points in a win over Philadelphia, but this is likely a spot where the Giants’ offense comes back down to Earth. Plus, Dart and New York could be a play-on as a home team (2-0 ML, ATS), and a fade on the road (0-1 vs NO) with Dart.
Denver does a phenomenal job as garnering pressure and containing the run game. Breece Hall, Saquon Barkley, and Chase Brown have a combined for 139 rushing yards in the last three games against the Broncos, plus Denver has 18 sacks in that span!
I think the Giants offense in for a rude awakening when they visit the Mile High city, and the New York defense hasn’t been too shabby either. After Bo Nix and company were held in check during a disgusting 13 points against a bottom-five Jets defense — I lost confidence.
Pick: Under 40.5 (1 unit)
Season Record: 40-30 (57%) +6.72 units | 7.73 ROI%
Week 6 Record: 9-10 (47%) +0.77 units | 3.6%
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