Not to risk jinxing Notre Dame, since no words typed on a small website have that effect, but what should Irish fans be most thankful for in 2023? Perhaps that No. 18 Notre Dame (8-3) has avoided an inexplicable loss this season like the two it suffered in Marcus Freeman’s debut campaign.
To be completely fair, one such loss last year was more confounding. Losing to Marshall in the week’s second season was easy to explain, if not still frustrating for Notre Dame fans. The Thundering Herd caught the Irish on a short week and were far more physical than had been realized, nine Power Five transfers raising Marshall’s floor to a level that made it dangerous in such a moment.
But how Notre Dame lost to Stanford last October, that remains beyond comprehension. With the Cardinal (3-8) awaiting on Saturday (7 ET on the Pac-12 Network), once again trying to find that reason feels pertinent.
The Irish were 16.5-point favorites and proceeded to gain 86 yards on 32 plays in the first half. For as many offensive struggles as Notre Dame has put forth since mid-September, none were against such a paltry defense as last year’s Cardinal and none were that thoroughly anemic. Gaining 1.53 yards per play on first down in a half is a problem beyond words.
Audric Estimé’s fumble in the fourth quarter proved the ultimate death knell, but the baffling loss extended well past his misguided effort to gain another few yards in that moment. He had gained 22 yards on the carry, his focus needed to be on ball security, but that never should have been the worry. In fact, the ball was in Estimé’s hands because the Irish had flummoxed where they were used to success — modest success, but success.
Days since I wondered how Notre Dame lost to Stanford last season: Once again, that counter has been reset to 0.
— Douglas Farmer (@D_Farmer) May 10, 2023
In the 2022 regular season, Notre Dame averaged 0.026 expected points added per offensive snap. Don’t worry too much about the meaning of that (assigning each snap a base line of success based on down, distance, time, score, field position, etc.) and simply recognize that number and then realize, the Irish lost 0.17 expected points per offensive snap against Stanford. The dropoff occurred mostly through the air, a season-long number of 0.111 EPA on dropbacks falling to -0.26 against the Cardinal.
And therein may finally be the answer to how and why Notre Dame lost to Stanford last year.
Credit to Alex Simon, the sports editor at SFGate.com, for pointing out in this week’s rendition of “And In That Corner,” …
One of the few bright spots even late into the (former Stanford head coach David) Shaw era was their secondary, led by legendary defensive backs coach Duane Akina.
A coaching veteran with four decades of experience, almost entirely spent on the defensive side of the ball, Akina had been the Cardinal defensive backs coach since 2014, coming off more than a decade at Texas under Mack Brown, including winning a national championship with the Longhorns.
Simon may have been giving a bit too much credit to Akina, but as Stanford bottomed out in all regards to end Shaw’s 12 years at the helm, its pass defense actually improved from the previous two seasons, far from good but still not in the bottom third of the country. In 2021, the Cardinal ranked No. 84 in yards per pass attempt against, at 7.6, and No. 75 in passer rating against. In 2022, No. 66 at 7.2 yards per pass attempt against and No. 89 in passer rating against. All of those numbers underrepresent Akina’s efforts, as so little else of Stanford’s program offered merit, his defensive backs often in frustrating positions through no fault of their own.
And again, those numbers were far from good but were massive improvements from 2019’s and 2020’s offerings, the best of which was ranking No. 102 in yards per pass attempt against in 2019 at 8.1.
That, that was how Notre Dame lost to Stanford in 2022.
The Irish pssing game lacked any discernible ceiling with Drew Pyne throwing to Michael Mayer and often only Michael Mayer, and Akina had the experience and wherewithal to shut down that attack. Pyne finished with 151 yards on 13-of-27 passing, completing five of 10 passes to Mayer for 60 yards. When not throwing to his All-American tight end, Pyne averaged 5.35 yards per pass attempt. Include taking two sacks for a loss of nine yards and those 19 non-Mayer-intended dropbacks gained 4.4 yards per play. That is how you lose more than a quarter of an expected point with each passing play.
Finally, the greatest mystery of Notre Dame’s 2022 has been solved. Or, at least, somewhat better understood. Should it be any worry this weekend?
Not with Sam Hartman, a vast upgrade compared to Pyne, leading a passing game averaging 0.172 EPA per dropback. A reminder so you do not need to scroll back up: That was 0.026 last regular season.
3️⃣5️⃣ yards to the HOUSE#GoIrish☘️ pic.twitter.com/wliPNmK1xj
— Notre Dame Football (@NDFootball) November 18, 2023
Not after last weekend featured three playmaking freshmen receivers, players that were quite literally not on the Irish roster last year and should be trusted to break loose again this weekend.
Notre Dame's freshmen receivers on Saturday: 15 catches for 212 yards and 2 touchdowns.
— Douglas Farmer (@D_Farmer) November 21, 2023
Notre Dame's freshmen receivers in the six seasons from 2017 to 2022: 34 catches for 493 yards and 3 touchdowns.
Flores, Greathouse and Faison could change things: https://t.co/wIGndB0evw
And not against this Stanford defense, one that ranks No. 130 in the country in passer rating against, ahead of only New Mexico, Georgia State and Temple. One that gives up 8.4 yards per pass attempt, No. 121 in the country.
How bad is the Cardinal pass defense? No one gets thrown on more often.
When considering game state — the same factors as pondered in EPA: down, distance, score, time, field position, etc. — teams throw against Stanford 10.5 percent more often than would be usually expected, per cfb-graphs.com. And they succeed nearly half the time.
For context, UCLA ranks No. 3 in this regard, but that is because teams are so fearful of the Bruins’ rush defense, No. 1 in the country. They throw so often against UCLA to avoid that front and then fail more than 60 percent of the time.
Arizona State sits at No. 2, problems more akin to Stanford’s. And yet, teams throw on the Sun Devils only 8.8 percent more often than would be expected.
The key to the Cardinal upsetting Notre Dame last season is now an outright Stanford weakness, while that Irish weakness is increasingly a strength once again.
For that matter, Notre Dame is a touchdown better than it was last mid-October.
— Douglas Farmer (@D_Farmer) November 22, 2023
Then: SP+ value of 11.6, No. 27 in the country.
Now: 17.7, No. 10
INSIDE THE IRISH
— Sam Hartman shines in farewell victory against his former team, leading ND to 45-7 win
— Irish defense shuts down Deacons, while Sam Hartman enjoys it all
— Things We Learned: Freshman receivers give Notre Dame hope for 2024 and 2025, both of which will be on NBC
— And In That Corner: Troy Taylor’s first season with the Stanford Cardinal yields relative, modest success
— Notre Dame and NBC Sports continue partnership through 2029 season
Captain, Jack Swarbrick 🫡💚#GoIrish☘️ pic.twitter.com/er43rNJMZV
— Notre Dame Football (@NDFootball) November 18, 2023
OUTSIDE READING
— The backstory on Notre Dame football’s new Victory Monogram celebration
— College football Week 12 takeaways: Expanded CFP one year too late
— How Kansas football coach Matt Lubick found strength in marathon running to battle cancer
— Crooked letters: Inside the NCAA’s years-long, twisting investigation into Mississippi football
"As God is my witness, I thought turkeys could fly."https://t.co/oV0B42qu25
— Douglas Farmer (@D_Farmer) November 24, 2022
