Two weeks after the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series stopped at Ingenuity Sun Media Raceway, they head to another short, flat track. Martinsville Speedway is one of the rhythm tracks that makes up about one-fourth of the races in both the regular season and playoffs. Along with a spate of similarly-configured, 1.5- and two-mile tracks in the opening weeks, now is a good time to achieve and maintain momentum.
This week’s predictions should be made with a combination of recent momentum and a driver’s track record.
1. Kyle Busch
This could be the week Busch stops being frustrated. He enters the STP 500 with a five-race streak of top-fives that includes two victories.
2. Brad Keselowski
Keselowski is the defending winner of this race and is second only to Busch in terms of top-five streaks. He has been perfect in that regard for the past four races.
3. Joey Logano
Logano can be difficult to handicap at Martinsville. In the past three years there, he has two top-fives, one other top-10, and two results outside the top 20.
4. Martin Truex Jr.
Before anyone gets overly excited about Truex’s runner-up finish in last fall’s Tums 500, they should note that is his only top-five at Martinsville in the past 11 races.
5. Chase Elliott
The final result last fall reads 27th for Elliott in the First Data 500, but one needs to remember he was racing for the win until he was crashed and had a top-five in the spring.
6. Denny Hamlin
Hamlin is the king of short, flat tracks, but his last two spring Martinsville attempts ended in the 30s. His last two fall races resulted in top-10s.
7. Jimmie Johnson
Johnson finally broke into the top 10 last week at Auto Club. That was his best track in terms of career average finishes; Martinsville is his second-best.
8. Kevin Harvick
With an average finish of 15.8, Martinsville counts as one of Harvick’s worst tracks. He may have to wait a week before he regains his winning form.
9. Austin Dillon
For some reason, Dillon has been much better at Martinsville in the spring with back-to-back top-fives; his fall races haven’t been terrible either with a pair of mid-teens.
10. Erik Jones
There were two disappointing results for Jones on short tracks last year, but Jones mostly finished in the top 20 with a best of second at Bristol.
11. Kyle Larson
Momentum from last week’s strong run in Auto Club might allow Larson to challenge for a top-10 on a track that has not been kind in the past—but he is still best saved for Texas.
12. Ryan Blaney
An eighth-place finish last fall just might be what Blaney needed to flip the switch at Martinsville. This track is all about rhythm.
13. Aric Almirola
His seventh-place finish at Phoenix showed rapid progress with Stewart-Haas Racing and suggests Almirola is going to be stronger than his record shows on short, flat tracks.
14. Ryan Newman
This is just the type of track that rewards a bulldog like Newman. His last five races at Martinsville all ended in a narrow range of seventh to 16th.
15. Clint Bowyer
Bowyer was one of only three drivers to sweep the top 10 at Martinsville last year. This track suits his driving style, but the competition may have made up some ground in the interim.
16. Alex Bowman
One can disregard Bowman’s old records on most tracks and assume that he is going to run well on courses that have been traditional strongholds of Hendrick Motorsports.
17. Kurt Busch
Busch was the surprise winner of the 2014 STP 500, but since then he has failed to crack the top 10 at Martinsville again with an average finish of 25.4.
18. Paul Menard
Menard has been hard to handicap this year. Every time he seems to have the season going his way, something bad happens instead.
19. AJ Allmendinger
No one counts Martinsville as their best track in terms of career average finishes, but Allmendinger lists it as second-best. That could make him a hidden gem.
20. Daniel Suarez
A lot of bad things can happen to a Young Gun on the short tracks and since Suarez has not yet earned a top-10, he should be avoided on the bullring of Martinsville.
21. Trevor Bayne
Bayne is not the first driver who comes to mind on the short, flat track of Martinsville, but last year he swept the top 15 with a 13th in spring and a sixth in the fall.
22. Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
Stenhouse swept the top-10 last year at Martinsville; that is the good news. The bad news is that his previous four attempts all ended in results of 32nd or worse.
23. Jamie McMurray
We took a risk and predicted a top-10 for McMurray last week. We were wrong. His teammate was one of the dominators, but the No. 1 apparently could not use his setup notes.
24. William Byron
The rookie contender improves his confidence each week and Byron is slowly making his way up the leaderboard. Martinsville is a hornet’s nest that could set him back a little, however.
25. Kasey Kahne
There is still some ground that needs to be made up, but Kahne has finished in a narrow band of 19th to 24th in his last four races of 2018 with his new team.
26. Darrell Wallace Jr.
The rookie is closing in on another solid result. Last week, he finished 20th at Auto Club, which was his second career top-20.
27. Michael McDowell
In the past two years, McDowell has finished in the mid-20s in the spring Martinsville race and the high-teens in the fall.
28. Chris Buescher
Buescher came close to cracking the top 10 last spring with an 11th in the STP 500 and he has finished in the 20s in three of his remaining four attempts.
29. Cole Whitt
Players looking for a long shot dark horse will want to consider Whitt. He finished in the low- to mid-20s in both Martinsville races last year.
30. David Ragan
In great equipment, Ragan is capable of scoring a top-five at Martinsville. He did that for Joe Gibbs Racing in 2015, but since then he has mostly been in the 20s.
31. Ty Dillon
Dillon was all over the board last year on short tracks with one top-15, three results in the 20s, and two in the 30s. This week is anyone’s guess.
32. Ross Chastain
At Phoenix two weeks ago, Chastain finished within two laps of the leader and scored a respectable 27th-place finish.
33. Matt DiBenedetto
This is not the kind of consistency a driver wants: Five of DiBenedetto’s six Martinsville attempts ended in the 30s.
34. Reed Sorenson
Martinsville is one NASCAR track that really rewards experience, so look for Sorenson to keep his car clean and well-adjusted until the end of the STP 500.
35. DJ Kennington
This will be Kennington’s first attempt at Martinsville, but fantasy players may want to look at his effort two weeks ago in Phoenix to help handicap the odds; he finished 31st, three laps off the pace
36. Gray Gaulding
The No. 23 team is doing the most with what they have and Gaulding earned his best unrestricted finish of 32nd last week at Auto Club.
37. Harrison Rhodes
This week will be a little familiar to Rhodes in his second attempt at the Cup level because he cut his teeth on short tracks.
38. Landon Cassill
No matter who is in the No. 00, it’s going to take some attrition for them to make up any significant positions.
Previous Cheat Sheets
Auto Club 400
TicketGuardian 500 (Phoenix)
Pennzoil 400 (Vegas)
QuikTrip 500 (Atlanta)
Daytona 500
