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Identifying which players are undervalued and which are overvalued is paramount to a fantasy manager’s season-long success. Whether you’ve had your eye on a certain player all offseason or you’re aiming to identify potential draft steals, it’s the perfect time to dig into the sleeper landscape. That’s why we’re highlighting a few of our expert’s favorite sleeper candidates for the 2022 MLB season.
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This preview features four sleeper candidates for the 2022 season, with detailed analysis from four of our experts. It highlights two starting pitching options and two outfielders.
Have a look:
Patrick Sandoval, SP, Angels
By George Bissell
Sandoval blossomed into a potential upper-echelon fantasy contributor, recording a sparkling 3.62 ERA, 1.21 WHIP and 94/36 K/BB ratio across 87 innings (17 appearances, 14 starts) prior to sustaining a season-ending back injury in mid-August, which ended an extremely promising breakthrough campaign. The 25-year-old left-hander’s metamorphosis was fueled by his propensity to generate swinging strikes, as evidenced by a league-high 51.4% whiff rate on his electrifying changeup and a newfound ability to minimize hard contact, which drove a massive gain in the run-prevention department. Sandoval doesn’t possess an extensive track record of sustained success, and he still needs to cut back on the free passes, but his prodigious raw talent and brief flashes of brilliance suggest that he’s on the cusp of superstardom.
Lourdes Gurriel Jr., OF, Blue Jays
By Matthew Pouliot
Gurriel was a favorite pick for many going into last year, but a hideous start followed, as he failed to take advantage of the generous hitting environment that other Jays benefited from while the team was playing in Florida. His OPS was as low as .492 into mid-May, but he bounced back nicely afterwards, hitting .302/.351/.528 with 19 homers and 74 RBI in his final 108 games. Overall, his strikeout rate was just 19%, down from 25% in 2019 and 21% in 2020. Gurriel probably won’t ever walk much, but that just gives him more chances to drive in runs in the stacked Toronto lineup. There’s still the chance that he’ll get to 30 homers one of these years, and even if this isn’t the one, he’ll hit for a nice average and perhaps make a run at 100 RBI while batting behind Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Teoscar Hernández.
Akil Baddoo, OF, Tigers
By David Shovein
I have been trumpeting the Baddoo breakout since October, and I see no reason to stop now. The 23-year-old was the biggest surprise of the 2021 season for the Tigers as a Rule-5 pick who had never played a game above High-A ball. Not only did he crack the Opening Day roster, but he slashed an impressive .259/.330/.436 with 13 homers, 55 RBI and 18 stolen bases (in 22 attempts). The sprint speed is elite – 91st percentile – which leads me to believe that there’s more upside there in the stolen base department. With an aggressive manager at the helm in A.J. Hinch, and with Baddoo likely to play every day and to hit atop the Tigers lineup, it wouldn’t surprise me in the slightest if he swiped 30 bases in 2022. The power projection is where it gets more interesting. A quick glance at his Statcast numbers would probably lead many to be pessimistic on his future, as his sixth percentile average exit velocity is cringe-worthy, as is his 14th percentile hard-hit rate. More than anything though, that’s just a product of him hitting the ball on the ground at a 40% clip. His maximum exit velocity of 111.8 mph shows that he has the ability to crush the ball, and there’s nothing wrong with his 8.8% barrel rate either. A slight tweak to his approach at the plate, increasing his launch angle and hitting a few more fly balls, could easily unlock 20+ homers. As it stands though, you’re looking at 25-30 stolen bases and 15+ homers with a solid batting average, good runs and middling RBI totals. To me, that sounds a whole lot like a discount version of Cedric Mullins – who is currently going in the top-30 in early NFBC drafts. Meanwhile, Baddoo can be had outside the top 140. I expect that he’ll continue to rise up draft boards as we get into the Spring, but I’m comfortable calling his name anywhere outside the top 100 picks overall and may even bump him up higher than that by the end of March.
Bailey Ober, SP, Twins
By Seth Trachtman
Pitchers with great control generally have a smoother transition to the majors, and Ober falls in that category after a strong rookie campaign. The 6-foot-9 right-hander walked only 1.2 batters per nine innings in his minor league career, and he kept that rate below two batters per nine in his first 20 MLB starts. Though it’s not only Ober’s already elite control that makes him so intriguing, but it’s also a highly effective fastball that he throws on a downward plane, helping him fan more than one batter per inning in spite of below average velocity. After some early hiccups, Ober had a 3.49 ERA, 1.11 WHIP and incredible 7.38 K/BB ratio in 12 starts after the break, showing his ability to adjust to MLB hitters. Only Shohei Ohtani had a better K/BB in the second half. The long balls remain a concern that could inflate his ERA, but Ober’s ability to keep hitters off the basepaths turns most of those homers into solo shots. The Twins got an apparent steal with Ober in the 12th round of the 2017 draft, and fantasy mangers can do the same if Ober’s early ADP hovers near 280, as it did early in NFBC leagues during the offseason.
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