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As we inch closer and closer to the fantasy playoffs, a sad reality is starting to kick in: the baseball season is almost over. After the unprecedented 2020 sample size, I personally forgot what it felt like to enjoy baseball for an entire season, and I’m sure I’m not alone here. Thankfully, regulations and protocols surrounding COVID-19 have helped this 2021 season run as smoothly as possible. And despite all the injuries, the foreign substance crackdown, and the rumors of ball alterations, this has been a rather enjoyable season.
For one, minor league players are once again developing nicely as they prepare for the big leagues. In 2020, the minor league season was cancelled, so to see these young players get the chance to continue to grow and improve is a privilege. More than this, there have been several breakout and comeback campaigns, from players old and young, and all in all, this has been another season to remember. You would think that this was a September waiver wire piece given the tone of my words, but there’s still about seven weeks of regular season baseball to go. And as a result, there are still players sitting on the waiver wire who can help you with your playoff run. In this week’s piece, I’ll be highlighting a handful of players who I believe can help most points league rosters. Let’s get into it![[ad:athena]]
Points League Options
(Players rostered in under 50% of ESPN leagues)
Tyler Rogers RP, Giants (42% rostered)
If I told you that there is a relief pitcher who isn’t the primary closer for his team, yet they’re currently a top-20 relief pitcher in points leagues, would you want them on your roster? It’s a yes for me personally, as I expect Tyler Rogers to continue to be a key player in the Giants’ bullpen for the remainder of the season. Over 52.0 innings pitched, the 30-year-old has a 1.90 ERA (3.60 SIERA) and a 32:9 K:BB. You’re probably thinking about how that strikeout total looks a little low, and it is. In fact, his 15.5% strikeout rate is the lowest of his career. This seems directly related to his slider -- his best strikeout pitch -- inducing whiffs at a career low rate (21.5% whiff rate). He’s been locating his slider differently this year, which could be affecting his ability to induce whiffs with the pitch. Nonetheless, he’s continued to limit hard contact and walks while inducing ground balls at a very high rate (61.6% ground ball rate).
Now, I’ve deliberately left the best part of his game for last: his delivery. Rogers is a submarine pitcher. Submarine pitchers naturally have deceptive deliveries and subsequently, they keep hitters off balance, which helps Rogers consistently limit hard contact. More than this, given their lower release point, it’s easier to regularly throw the ball lower in the zone, which is why Rogers always has a high ground ball rate. This all sounds fun, but submarine pitchers do have to deal with natural disadvantages. Specifically, they don’t throw very hard, as Rogers’ highest recorded velocity on a pitch was an 85.8 mph sinker back in 2020. Additionally, their arsenals are usually limited and as a result, submarine pitchers are almost always relief pitchers. In Rogers’ situation, he’s been one of the most valuable pitchers in general for the Giants so far in 2021. During these final weeks of the season, I expect him to continue to limit runs while racking up some saves and holds along the way. He’s a fine relief pitching option for any points league roster.
Lorenzo Cain OF, Brewers (24% rostered)
The seasoned vet has dealt with several trips to the injured list this season, but he’s now healthy and ready to help the Brewers, and you. Now, we’re not talking about a potential breakout player here, as it’s very likely that Cain has already reached his ceiling. Back in 2015, he had a .307/.361/.477 slash line with 16 home runs and 28 stolen bases over 551 at-bats. He became a first time All-Star that year and finished third in AL MVP voting behind Mike Trout and Josh Donaldson. However, he hasn’t hit 16 home runs since and as of right now, his ceiling is limited. But this doesn’t mean he can’t be an effective fantasy option.
Over 137 at-bats, he has a .248/.331/.350 slash-line with three home runs and six stolen bases. His sprint speed is still well above average at age-35, as it ranks in the 86th percentile (28.5 feet/second). Interestingly, his sprint speed was actually lower between 2019-2020, so it appears that Cain has found some extra motivation to run harder this year. He’s also continued to make contact at an above average rate while limiting his strikeout rate. Additionally, he started chasing pitches less and drawing walks more around 2018 and these plate discipline changes have continued this season. Because of this, he can provide points for fantasy owners through his speed, his plate discipline, and his bat. There are likely shinier options available on your waiver wire, but few are as reliable.
Rafael Ortega OF, Cubs (37% rostered)
To say that Ortega has had a long road to regular playing time at the major league level would be a vast understatement. Ortega was originally signed as an international free agent by the Rockies in 2008. After a lengthy stay in the Rockies’ minor league system, he made his official MLB debut in 2012, but only received six plate appearances that year. The Rockies then let him land on waivers in 2013 and the Rangers claimed him, only to designate him for assignment a few weeks later. Rough. Then in January 2014, he was claimed by the Cardinals. Unfortunately, he ended up never reaching the big league club despite seeing plenty of plate appearances in the Cardinals’ minor league system. After choosing to become a free agent in 2015, he was given a one-year contract with the Angels’ big league club and earned a .232/.283/.292 slash line with a home run and eight stolen bases over 185 at-bats. However, it wasn’t enough to keep him with the club, as he was designated for assignment and became a free agent in November 2016.
Bear with me, you’re doing well. The Padres then signed him to a minor league contract in December 2016 and he was actually very productive in AAA. But predictably, he once again became a free agent in November 2017. He then played for the Marlins and Braves’ organizations between 2018-2019 before signing a minor league contract with the Cubs this past spring. As I said, a vast understatement. Now 30-years-old, Ortega has found himself with a rebuilding Cubs team, the perfect situation for him to finally receive regular playing time, and he hasn’t disappointed. Over 128 at-bats, he has a .320/.374/.531 slash line with six home runs and five stolen bases, and there’s no reason to believe he won’t receive regular at-bats for the rest of the season. His power appears real based on his solid quality of contact metrics and he could be a useful option down the stretch.
Luis Gil SP, Yankees (16% rostered)
Armed with a high spin, high-90s four-seam fastball, a pitch that some consider one of the best fastballs in the minors, Luis Gil has the type of stuff that many can only dream of. He’s also armed with a solid slider and a changeup that’s still developing. In 2015, he was signed as an international free agent by the Twins and he ended up being traded to the Yankees in spring 2018. While many people are high on him, his overall profile does seem like that of a future high leverage relief pitcher.
His stuff can be fun to watch, but his spotty command and control are hard to ignore. Over 268.0 minor league innings pitched, he earned a 3.06 ERA (3.54 FIP) and a 16.5% K-BB (13.8% BB). Given his raw stuff, it’s not hard to understand how he’s been able to limit runs despite demonstrating below average command and control. However, this approach will not work as a major league starter. If he’s going to succeed as a MLB starter long-term, he’ll need to refine his command and control as well as properly develop his changeup.
The Yankees called Gil up on August 3rd to make his first career start against the Orioles and he performed very well. Over 6.0 innings of work, he allowed four hits, walked one, and struck out six. But most importantly, his location skills looked strong, a pleasant surprise. He consistently pounded the top of the zone with his fastball while locating his changeup down and away to left-handed hitters. His slider command looked shaky, but he filled the zone with the pitch. I didn’t expect this display of command and control from him, and if he keeps it up, he would quickly become a more enticing asset. Per reports, he’ll be making his next start on Sunday, August 8th against the Mariners. In my eyes, this is a must-watch start, as a strong performance could help him stick in the rotation for the time being.
Mitch Garver C, Twins (36% rostered)
Garver’s 2019 campaign isn’t talked about enough. He was outstanding. Over just 311 at-bats, he hit 31 home runs and earned an impressive .273/.365/.630 slash line. He averaged about one home run every ten at-bats and over 226 batted ball events, he had a 15.0% barrel rate and 50.0% hard hit rate, which helps support this display of immense power.
However, he has had trouble against breaking pitches, as he had just a .299 wOBA (.299 xwOBA) with a 34.3% whiff rate against breaking pitches in 2019. These struggles have continued in 2021 and you might now be wondering how exactly he was so successful despite struggling against breaking pitches. Well, he’s a fastball masher. In 2019, he had a .497 wOBA (.455 xwOBA) and 93.6 mph average exit velocity against fastballs. Then in 2020, he truly struggled to produce as a whole. Why? You guessed it, he struggled to produce against fastballs (.272 wOBA). Fortunately, he’s been better in 2021 and yes, you guessed it again, he’s improved his production against fastballs (.476 wOBA). Over 154 at-bats, Garver has a .227/.331/.545 slash line with 13 home runs. As a whole, his high strikeout rate does hurt, but he’s a reliable source of home runs and walks.
Amed Rosario SS/OF, Indians (35% rostered)
After Rosario had a .287/.323/.432 slash line with 15 home runs and 19 stolen bases over 616 at-bats in 2019, many -- myself included -- expected him to only improve from that point. He hasn’t improved and his struggles against breaking pitches could be to blame. Since his MLB debut in 2017, Rosario has struggled to produce against breaking pitches. He’s never had a wOBA greater than .283 against them, including this season. For reference, a wOBA anywhere below .300 is considered terrible.
So far in 2021, he has .190 wOBA and 36.7% whiff rate against breaking pitches, which obviously isn’t encouraging. However, the silver lining here is that he’s been more productive than ever against offspeed pitches, which helps his overall production. Beyond all of this, he has a career high 111.5 mph max exit velocity and 42.1% hard hit rate this year, instilling hope that we’ve yet to see his power ceiling. All in all, Rosario is the perfect type of player for your middle infield slot. His 98th percentile sprint speed will allow him to keep racking up steals while stretching singles into extra base hits. He’s been receiving regular playing time at shortstop and he has the upside to finish as a top-20 shortstop in points leagues.
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Deep Points League Options
(Players rostered in under 10% of ESPN leagues)
Brandon Belt 1B, Giants (9% rostered)
It’s felt like Belt has had another level to his game for years now, and he could finally be reaching that next level at age-33. He’s dealt with a couple trips to the injured list already, but over 177 at-bats, he has a .254/.364/.520 slash line with 12 home runs and 3 stolen bases. For perspective, in 2016, he hit 17 home runs over 542 at-bats, so it’s clear that he’s been hitting home runs at a higher rate recently, but how? His quality of contact against breaking pitches has significantly improved since 2020.
Homering off of a breaking pitch has never been a real issue for him, but so far in 2021, he has a 94.9 mph average exit velocity against breaking pitches. This means that he’s almost averaging a hard hit for each batted ball event that comes against a breaking pitch. That’s unreal. Whether he continues to mash breaking pitches at this rate remains to be seen, but if he does, he’ll be a legit power threat whenever he’s healthy. In fact, since returning from the injured list on August 5th, he’s already hit three home runs. This isn’t the same Brandon Belt from past seasons.
Michael Lorenzen RP, Reds (7% rostered)
Just one glance at Lorenzen is all it takes to begin to wonder why he isn’t a professional bodybuilder. Dude’s yoked. But aside from his physique, Lorenzen has always had a deep arsenal of weapons at his disposal. He throws a four-seam fastball that sits mid-high 90s, a changeup, a cutter, a slider, and a sinker. He’s seemingly ditched his curveball this year after reportedly developing a new curveball this offseason. Whether he brings it back remains to be seen, but he might not even need it as a high leverage bullpen arm.
Lorenzen earned his first save of 2021 on August 4th and it’s possible he could see more opportunities down the road. The Reds’ bullpen has been inconsistent all season, specifically in the late innings. With Lucas Sims expected back soon, Tejay Antone nearing a return, and Amir Garrett and Mychal Givens sitting in the pen as well, there will likely be no primary closer in Cincinnati this season. Regardless, Lorenzen should still be used in high leverage situations going forward, making him a useful and cheap relief pitcher option. His ownership is low for a reason, as he has no set role for the time being, but he’s talented enough to provide value every time he’s on the mound.
