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San Francisco Giants
2021 Record: 107-55
First place, NL West
Team ERA: 3.25 (2nd in MLB)
Team OPS: .769 (4th in MLB)
What Went Right?
Well, for the Giants to win a franchise-record 107 games, just about everything had to go right. No one had expected San Francisco to win the division, let alone make the playoffs. It was supposed to be the final hurrah for the veterans before the team ushered in the next crop of young players into a new era by the bay. This team had other plans. The return of Buster Posey, the team leader and face of the franchise for the last decade, set the tone from the jump. He homered in back-to-back games to start the year, and if Posey was back, so were the Giants. The 34-year-old catcher had an incredible comeback season, posting a .304/.390/.499 slash line with 18 home runs. Manager Gabe Kapler is credited with putting together an analytically-driven coaching staff, something new to San Francisco, and it did wonders. Brandon Crawford had a career year, hitting .298/.373/.522 with a career-high 24 home runs and 11 steals. Brandon Belt finally achieved an elusive 20-homer season, blasting 29 in just 381 plate appearances. And Kris Bryant added a spark at the trade deadline, hitting .262/.344/.444 with seven homers and six steals with the Giants. Kapler did an excellent job platooning the rest of the lineup. For example, LaMonte Wade Jr. and Austin Slater combined for 30 homers and 21 stolen bases over 687 total plate appearances. Despite not even having a hitter eclipse 30 home runs, the team set a franchise record with 241, six more than the 2001 team led by Barry Bonds’ 73 blasts.
While the offense reached new heights in San Francisco, most of the successful Giants teams in Oracle Park were built around excellent pitching. And this year was no different. Kevin Gausman proved 2020 was no fluke, posting a 2.81 ERA with 227 strikeouts over 192 innings. Logan Webb broke out to a 3.03 ERA and 158 strikeouts over 148 1/3 frames. The 24-year-old right-hander was so impressive he earned the first start for the team in the postseason and shined on the biggest stage. Free-agent acquisition Anthony DeSclafani rewarded the Giants with a 3.17 ERA over 167 2/3 innings. The bullpen locked things down in the late innings with an MLB-best 2.99 ERA. Jake McGee led the way with a 2.72 ERA and 31 saves. And young flamethrower Camilo Doval impressed down the stretch with 20 strikeouts over 14 1/3 scoreless innings in September.
What Went Wrong?
Well, as good as the offense was in the regular season, it failed to show up in the playoffs as the team fell to the Dodgers in the five-game NLDS. While they did take the much-anticipated series against Los Angeles to five games, the team hit just .182 with a .513 OPS. The Giants scored just six total runs over the final four games, leaning heavily on their pitching. The season ended with a controversial check-swing call in Game 5, but it’s not what cost the team the series. Scoring six runs in four games just won’t cut it against an incredible Dodgers team that won 106 games themselves. Mike Yastrzemski was particularly disappointing, failing to record a hit in the postseason. Those struggles carried over from the regular season as he slashed just .224/.311/.457 over 532 plate appearances after posting a .968 OPS in 2020. The team had high hopes for Mauricio Dubon after trading for the 27-year-old in 2019. He posted just a 75 WRC+ last season while earning a demotion to Triple-A.
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Fantasy Slants
** Kevin Gausman posted a 3.62 ERA with a 32.2 percent strikeout rate for the Giants in 2020. And his underlying numbers suggested he could be even better. But could Gausman reach his potential relying so heavily on his splitter? He did just that. The 30-year-old right-hander came through for fantasy managers in a big way, winning 14 games while posting a 2.81 ERA and 1.04 WHIP with a 29.3 percent strikeout rate over 192 frames. He did hit a few bumps along the way, recording a 4.42 ERA after the All-Star break, showing what could happen if he loses his feel for the split-finger fastball. Gausman is capable of posting excellent numbers next season as a top-20 pitcher. There’s no doubt that the pitcher-friendly Oracle Park could be forgiving to starters, but he posted a better ERA on the road (2.33) than at home (3.44). It’ll be interesting to see where he ultimately signs this off-season.
** It’s possible Logan Webb is the first Giant taken in 2022 fantasy drafts. While he displayed some intriguing skills before the season, he struggled in 2020, posting a 5.47 ERA over 54 1/3 frames. Webb put it all together in 2021, officially arriving on the scene with a 3.03 ERA and 1.11 WHIP across 148 1/3 innings. He was particularly impressive down the stretch, recording a 2.71 ERA in the second half before showcasing his skills in the NLDS. Webb’s mix of a 60.9 percent ground ball rate, six percent walk rate, and 12.4 percent swinging-strike rate give him all the elements of an elite starting pitcher. His lack of track record might not make him an ace quite yet, but he’ll make an excellent second starter with upside for fantasy managers in 2022.
** Camilo Doval‘s dominance in September gave Kapler the confidence to throw him out there in the ninth inning as he recorded three saves before the end of the season. The 24-year-old right-hander retained the closer role in the playoffs, showing off his high-90’s fastball and bat-missing slider. With Jake McGee under contract for one more season, it’s possible Doval steps back into a setup role. But should the team give any indication that he will be closing, he’s got top-ten upside. Early Steamer projections have Doval at a 3.45 ERA, 11.29 K/9, and 26 saves in 2022. Regardless, he could be one of the better non-closers should McGee take back the closer role.
** Could Brandon Crawford come close to repeating his career year? His improvements at the plate started in 2020 when he posted a career-best 9.4 percent barrel rate that season. Crawford only improved on that, posting an 11.5 percent barrel rate this season on his way to a .298/.373/.522 slash line, 24 homers, and 11 steals across 549 plate appearances. While he’s unlikely to match that line, the power appears to be legit. I just wouldn’t count on him repeating that kind of batting average. His .255 expected average suggests he vastly overperformed in that area. But he should be capable of providing 20-homer power while chipping in some steals. And the depth at shortstop likely makes him a solid middle infield option.
** Similar to Crawford, Brandon Belt‘s ability at the plate improved in 2020. He crushed the ball with a 16.8 percent barrel rate and matched it with a 17 percent rate in 2021. After years of underwhelming power output, he blasted 29 homers across just 381 plate appearances in 97 games. The 33-year-old has struggled to stay on the field throughout his career. But if he can stay healthy, something a universal DH could help with, Belt can be a steal at the first base position or as a corner infielder. His stock could rise even further should he leave San Francisco in free agency and land in a more hitter-friendly ballpark.
** After an incredible comeback season, Buster Posey has officially announced his retirement. The Giants are sure to miss their leader both on and off the field. The team likely had this possibility in mind when they selected Joey Bart with the second pick of the 2018 amateur draft. The 24-year-old catcher saw just six plate appearances for the Giants in 2021 but had an excellent season in Triple-A, slashing .294/.358/.472 with ten homers over 279 plate appearances. San Francisco is likely to count on the young backstop to take over catching duties next season. He’ll be an intriguing pick late in 2022 fantasy drafts with some power upside. But Bart will need to improve on the swing-and-miss in his game -- 29.4 percent strikeout rate in Triple-A -- to be a top-15 option at the position.
Key Free Agents: Kevin Gausman, Kris Bryant, Brandon Belt, Anthony DeSclafani, Alex Wood
Team Needs: The San Francisco Giants will have plenty of work to do over the next several months. Bringing back some of those key free agents will be the top priority for the front office this winter. Gausman, DeSclafani, and Wood entering free agency could leave multiple holes to fill in the starting rotation. And the team is likely to try to retain both Belt and Bryant. The Giants could look much different on 2022 Opening Day, given the departures the team is facing.