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Patience often pays off with young pitchers, but former first-round pick Matt Manning has really tried the patience of Tigers fans.
The right-hander saw exemplary results as a pro leading up to the 2021 season, though his first MLB campaign was one to forget. Manning posted a 5.80 ERA over 18 starts and was even worse down at Triple-A Toledo with an ERA above 8.00 in seven starts.
It’s not uncommon for talented players to struggle in their first taste of the majors, but Manning had another setback after hitting the injured list in April with arm issues. He missed nearly four months with shoulder and biceps injuries, one of many pitching health ailments facing the Tigers staff this season.
Returning in early August, Manning has been a different pitcher from the one we saw in 2021 and the start of 2022. He has an ace-like 2.40 ERA in five starts with 27/9 K/BB in 30 innings. Drilling down to Manning’s last two starts makes the performance look even better, with 19/2 K/BB in 18 innings against the White Sox, Angels, and Giants.
If you are looking for evidence of changes in Manning recently, you can find it in his average velocity. His average fastball has averaged better than 94 mph, and he’s also leaned more heavily on his slider than last season, throwing it 24% of the time compared to only 15% last year.
For a pitcher with a career 10.9 K/9 in the minors, Manning’s 6.0 K/9 with Detroit last season was extremely disconcerting. We’re finally beginning to see what Manning is capable of now, as the Tigers look for any positive momentum head into 2023. Manning is approaching a two-start week in what could also be a valuable stretch run for fantasy managers.
-Boston is also seeing their patience pay off with rookie Brayan Bello. The prized right-hander had a rough go during his stretch with the Red Sox in July, but he looked fantastic earlier this week against the Blue Jays, allowing two runs in five innings with seven strikeouts. Bello has become a much more interesting prospect since last season, with a cumulative K/9 above 12.0 in the minors along with a truly elite groundball rate above 60% this season due to his elite upper-90’s sinker. He might be able to provide the innings the team has been craving as we enter September.
-Another groundball specialist, Adrian Houser, was bombed in his return from the IL this week. He deserves a bit of a pass given that the level of difficulty was extreme against the Dodgers, though it is worrisome that his fastball velocity was significant down from his season average. Fantasy managers in need of wins have a high-risk, high-reward decision to make for a pitcher available in most leagues and entering a two-start week against the lowly Pirates and Diamondbacks. It’s always a critical calculation in roto-scoring leagues at this point in the year as we chase category points, and weigh the pros of win possibilities with the cons of Houser possibly tanking ERA and WHIP categories. With the velo struggles of his last start, Houser is truly a proposition for the desperate.
-If there was any doubt, Zac Gallen has completely put his disappointing 2021 season behind him with four consecutive scoreless starts. Incredibly, the right-hander has lowered his ERA from those outings against the Pirates, Rockies, Giants, and Royals from 3.31 to 2.66. He’s still far from Orel Hershiser’s 59 scoreless innings streak, and gets easily his biggest challenge early next week against a Phillies squad that will likely have Bryce Harper back in the lineup. Regardless, the run has been fun while it’s lasted.
Going Twice…
Note: Probable pitchers as of Friday, August 26, and are subject to change.
American League
Strong Plays
George Kirby: @DET, @CLE
Frankie Montas: @LAA, @TB
Decent Plays
Cole Irvin: @WAS, @BAL
Matt Manning: SEA, KC
José Berríos: CHC, @PIT
Lucas Giolito: KC, MIN
Cal Quantrill: BAL, SEA
Spenser Watkins: @CLE, OAK
Dane Dunning: HOU, @BOS
Brayan Bello: @MIN, TEX
At Your Own Risk
Dylan Bundy: BOS, @CHW
Jonathan Heasley: @CHW, @DET
Kutter Crawford: @MIN, TEX
National League
Strong Plays
Tony Gonsolin: @MIA, SD
Corbin Burnes: PIT, @ARI
Max Fried: COL, MIA
Zac Gallen: PHI, MIL
Carlos Rodón: SD, PHI
Decent Plays
Ranger Suárez: @ARI, @SF
Mike Clevinger: @SF, @LAD
Pablo Lopez: LAD, @ATL
Taijuan Walker: LAD, WAS
Adrian Houser: PIT, @ARI
At Your Own Risk
Madison Bumgarner: PHI, MIL
Jose Urena: @ATL, @CIN
Javier Assad: @TOR, @STL
Streamer City
The following pitchers are generally available in over 50 percent of fantasy leagues and have favorable match-ups this week:
American League
Saturday, September 3: Austin Voth vs. OAK
Voth continues to keep the O’s in games with at least five innings over his last five outings, netting a 2.33 ERA. Oakland’s lineup continues to struggle, with a .617 OPS against right-handers, second worst in MLB.
Saturday, September 3: Clarke Schmidt @ TB
The long-awaited arrival of Schmidt to the rotation is about to come true with Nestor Cortes sidelined. He’s had a great year out of the pen for New York, and could be a strong spot start against a Rays lineup that has the sixth worst OPS in MLB vs. right-handers.
Saturday, September 3: Daniel Lynch @ DET
Lynch has disappointed this year due in part to shaky control, but he can be a nice spot starter in the right matchup. The Tigers are slightly better against southpaws than right-handers, but still have a sub-.700 OPS against lefties, 11th worst in MLB.
National League
Tuesday, August 30: Dakota Hudson @ CIN
Hudson’s inability to miss bats is an issue, but he had a strong outing at Wrigley Field on Thursday and fits well in hitter’s parks with a 53% groundball rate. Cincinnati’s hitting stats continue to deteriorate without Tyler Stephenson and Joey Votto.
Tuesday, August 30: Erick Fedde vs. OAK
Back from injury this week, Fedde put together five strong innings at Seattle. Despite poor control, he looks like a viable option again vs. the aforementioned A’s lineup.
Wednesday, August 31: Bailey Falter @ ARI
Falter is getting the nod while Zack Wheeler is sidelined, and has been mostly solid in the starting role with a 4.30 ERA and 37/11 K/BB in 37.2 innings. The left-hander also has a great matchup against a Diamondbacks lineup with a .685 OPS against lefties.
Total Games
American League
5: HOU, TB
6: BAL, CLE, CHW, DET, KC, LAA, MIN, NYY, OAK, SEA, TEX, TOR
7: BOS
National League
6: ATL, CHC, CIN, COL, MIA, NYM, PHI, PIT, SD, SF, STL, WAS
7: ARI, LAD, MIL
The Infirmary
Here’s some injuries to prominent players from the last week, and other players to watch for in the coming week. You can get a full listing of injured players at NBCSports Edge’s Injury Page.
Aaron Ashby: Placed on IL (shoulder)
Graham Ashcraft: Placed on IL (biceps)
Javier Baez: Day-to-day (back)
Brandon Belt: Placed on IL (knee)
Mike Brosseau: Placed on IL (oblique)
Byron Buxton: Placed on IL (hip)
Willson Contreras: Day-to-day (ankle)
Nestor Cortes: Placed on IL (groin)
Seranthony Domínguez: Placed on IL (triceps)
Scott Effross: Placed on IL (shoulder)
Nathan Eovaldi: Placed on IL (shoulder)
Ty France: Day-to-day (calf)
Braxton Garrett: Placed on IL (oblique)
Yasmani Grandal: Placed on IL (knee)
Zack Greinke: Placed on IL (forearm)
Yadiel Hernandez: Placed on IL (calf)
Eric Hosmer: Placed on IL (back)
Jakob Junis: Day-to-day (hand)
Michael Kopech: Placed on IL (knee)
Gavin Lux: Day-to-day (neck)
Chas McCormick: Day-to-day (finger)
Yoan Moncada: Day-to-day (hamstring)
Mike Moustakas: Day-to-day (calf)
Vinnie Pasquantino: Placed on IL (shoulder)
Ryan Pressly: Placed on IL (neck)
Matt Reynolds: Placed on IL (hip)
Jonathan Schoop: Placed on IL (ankle)
Juan Soto: Day-to-day (back)
Josh Staumont: Placed on IL (biceps)
Keegan Thompson: Placed on IL (back)
Kyle Tucker: Day-to-day (foot)
Jared Walsh: Out for the season (shoulder)
Zack Wheeler: Placed on IL (forearm)
T.J. Zeuch: Placed on IL (back)
