This week’s Prospect Positional will cover third basemen, a position in that includes many of the top power prospects in the minor leagues and a few young prospects who are years away. Additionally, I have selected the top three third base prospects from the 2014 draft to discuss.
Note: All statistics are current through Sunday, August 3.
Updated top-12
| Updated | June 17 | Pre-Season | Name | MLB Team | MiLB Team |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | 2 | Kris Bryant | Cubs | Iowa (AAA) |
| 2 | 1 | 1 | Miguel Sano | Twins | DL |
| 3 | 3 | 7 | Joey Gallo | Rangers | Frisco (AA) |
| 4 | 5 | 12 | D.J. Peterson | Mariners | Jackson (AA) |
| 5 | 4 | 3 | Maikel Franco | Phillies | Lehigh Valley (AAA) |
| 6 | 6 | N/R | Rio Ruiz | Astros | Lancaster (High-A) |
| 7 | 10 | N/R | Hunter Dozier | Royals | Northwest Arkansas (AA) |
| 8 | 9 | N/R | Ryan McMahon | Rockies | Asheville (Low-A) |
| 9 | 7 | 8 | Colin Moran | Astros | Jupiter (High-A) |
| 10 | Bubble | N/R | Rafael Devers | Red Sox | GCL (Rookie) |
| 11 | Bubble | N/R | Mitch Nay | Blue Jays | Lansing (Low-A) |
| 12 | 11 | 6 | Rosell Herrera | Rockies | Modesto (High-A) |
Small sample size
| Updated | June 17 | Pre-Season | Name | MLB Team | MiLB Team |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 1 | 1 | Miguel Sano | Twins | DL |
Nothing has changed with Miguel Sano, but I feel that Kris Bryant’s strong performance with Double-A Tennessee and, more importantly, Triple-A Iowa have pushed him to be the top third base prospect in baseball. Sano will not return to baseball-related activities until December at the earliest, but he should be ready for spring training in 2015, and could be in the major leagues by mid-2015.
Superb performance
| Updated | June 17 | Pre-Season | Name | MLB Team | MiLB Team |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | 2 | Kris Bryant | Cubs | Iowa (AAA) |
| 3 | 3 | 7 | Joey Gallo | Rangers | Frisco (AA) |
| 4 | 5 | 12 | D.J. Peterson | Mariners | Jackson (AA) |
| 10 | Bubble | N/R | Rafael Devers | Red Sox | GCL (Rookie) |
After hitting .355/.458/.702 with 20 doubles and 22 home runs in 68 games with Double-A Tennessee, Kris Bryant has stayed hot with Triple-A Iowa, hitting .308/.407/.654. His defense is below average and he strikes out too much, but his power is near the top of the scale and he consistently makes solid contact. Bryant has a legitimate claim as the top prospect in the minor leagues, and should be in the major leagues in early 2015.
Much like Bryant, 20-year old Joey Gallo was making Carolina League pitchers look silly, posing a .323/.463/.735 line with nine doubles, three triples and 21 home runs over 58 games before his promotion to the Double-A Texas League, where he has cooled off some, hitting .270/.355/.598 with nine doubles and 16 home runs in 47 games. Gallo may have the most power of any hitter in the minor leagues, but his strikeout total (146 in 444 plate appearances, 32.9 percent) is downright scary. He is unlikely to reach the major leagues until late-2015 at the absolute earliest, and may return to Double-A Frisco to start 2015.
D.J. Peterson started slowly, hitting .269/.313/.410 through April, but turned it on, hitting . 349/.407/.697 with 20 doubles and 16 home runs over 46 games, at which time he was promoted to Double-A Jackson of the Southern League. He has done well with Jackson, hitting .262/.324/.460 with seven doubles and six home runs over 32 games. Peterson is likely to finish the season with Jackson, and could be in the major leagues as soon as mid-2015.
Rafael Devers has batted in two leagues where the level of play is so uneven, it is difficult to trust that his combined .346/.436/.534 line is based on talent. However, Rafael Devers is the age of many recent high school graduates (or soon-to-be seniors), and his line is very much the product of his high talent level. Devers may not be long for third base, but he has the talent to hit .300 with 20 home runs.
Holding serve
| Updated | June 17 | Pre-Season | Name | MLB Team | MiLB Team |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | N/R | Rio Ruiz | Astros | Lancaster (High-A) |
| 7 | 10 | N/R | Hunter Dozier | Royals | Northwest Arkansas (AA) |
| 8 | 9 | N/R | Ryan McMahon | Rockies | Asheville (Low-A) |
| 9 | 7 | 8 | Colin Moran | Astros | Jupiter (High-A) |
| 11 | Bubble | N/R | Mitch Nay | Blue Jays | Lansing (Low-A) |
Rio Ruiz continues to hit well in the High-A California League, putting up a .302/.393/.461 line, including .333/.424/.581 with 12 doubles, one triple and four home runs in July. His walk rate continues to hover near 14%, and his strikeout rate is down to 16%, while his isolated power is roughly that of 2014. It is concerning that Ruiz did not see a power bump solely from playing in the California League, but the 20-year old still has time to develop. With the Astros slow roast approach to player development and newly-acquired Colin Moran playing in Double-A Corpus Christi, he will likely spend the rest of the season in High-A before beginning 2015 with Double-A Corpus Christi.
After hitting .329/.427/.510 from the beginning of May until his mid-June promotion to Double-A Northwest Arkansas, Hunter Dozier has struggled to adjust to more advanced pitching, hitting .211/.284/.320 with 45 strikeouts in 162 plate appearances (27.8 percent). Additionally, he has yet to develop over-the-fence power, and could turn into a doubles machine that hits .280.
Ryan McMahon’s season can be broken into two parts. He hit . 291/.396/.696 with five doubles and nine home runs in April, setting the Low-A South Atlantic League on fire. The second part is his solid .283/.342/.450 line since then, which includes 34 doubles, two triples and five home runs. Additionally, he has struggled against lefties (607 OPS) while crushing righties (964 OPS). He will likely spend the rest of the season in Asheville and open 2015 with Modesto of the California League.
After a slow start to the season, Colin Moran was hitting .294/.342/.393 with 21 doubles and five home runs when he was traded to the Houston Astros. He was assigned to Double-A Corpus Christi, where he has hit .273/.385/.364 with one double in three games. He projects as a .280 hitter with the power to hit 30 doubles and 10-plus home runs.
Mitch Nay has had a solid season for a player in his first year of full-season baseball, hitting .280/.338/.380 with 27 doubles, three triples and three home runs. He has the raw power to hit 20-plus home runs, but has yet to be able to turn his batting practice power into in-game power. Nay started well, had a cold May, a hot June and settled into the middle in July, hitting .276/.315/.353 with nine doubles. He has gotten off to a great August, going 5-for-11 with two doubles and a home run in three games.
Struggling
| Updated | June 17 | Pre-Season | Name | MLB Team | MiLB Team |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 4 | 3 | Maikel Franco | Phillies | Lehigh Valley (AAA) |
| 12 | 11 | 6 | Rosell Herrera | Rockies | Modesto (High-A) |
Despite hitting .343/.371/.596 with nine doubles, two triples and four home runs in July, Maikel Franco will likely want to forget about the entirety of his 2014 season. On the whole, he is hitting .240/.290/.381, and, considering Ruben Amaro’s inability to make a single move before the non-waiver trade deadline, is unlikely to see time in the major leagues until 2015. The potential remains the same, but his poor performance over the season’s first three months is troubling.
Some players seem to succeed at each level year in and year out, while others take a while to acclimate to a level, mastering it after working though things. Rosell Herrera falls squarely into the latter camp. He hit .202/.271/.272 in Low-A Asheville in 2012, then .343/.419/.515 in Low-A Asheville in 2013. He has struggled in High-A Modesto in 2014, hitting just .256/.317/.353. He will likely be moved to Double-A Tulsa to start 2015 in order to allow Ryan McMahon to play third base in Modesto. He has the talent to hit .300 with 15-20 home runs, but his power outage in 2014 calls into question whether his power surge in 2013 was a product of the short porch in Asheville and not actualization of his raw power.
New Draftees (listed alphabetically)
| Updated | Name | MLB Team | MiLB Team |
|---|---|---|---|
| Draftee | Alex Blandino | Reds | Dayton (Low-A) |
| Draftee | Matt Chapman | Athletics | Beloit (Low-A) |
| Draftee | Michael Chavis | Red Sox | GCL (Rookie) |
The Reds drafted Alex Blandino with the 29th overall pick of the 2014 draft out of Stanford, where he hit .310/.397/.531 with 14 doubles and 12 home runs as a Junior. After hitting .309/.412/.527 over 29 games with rookie-level Billings in the ultra-hitter friendly Pioneer League, Blandino has been aggressively pushed to Low-A Dayton, where he has hit .280/.379/.520 with three doubles and one home run over his first six games. He has played shortstop so far, but lacks the quickness to be a shortstop long term and best fits at third base. At best, he has average power, but could hit .280.
After hitting .312/.411/.498 for Cal State Fullerton, Matt Chapman was drafted 25th overall by the A’s. Chapman is a solid defensive third baseman who has the talent to hit .280 with copious doubles. He reportedly hit 98 with his fastball with USA Baseball last summer, so if he does not hit there is the fallback option of becoming a late-inning reliever. He is a high-IQ baseball player who is not afraid to get dirty, which should fit in quite well with the A’s.
Michael Chavis, the 26th overall pick, has above-average raw power and a high-energy style of play. He has struggled so far in the GCL, hitting .148/.257/.213 with more strikeouts (23) than total bases (13), but many other very good prospects have struggled during their first seasons in rookie league. He is currently playing shortstop but third base is his likely future destination despite the Red Sox’s organizational depth at the hot corner.
