This week’s Prospect Positional will cover outfielders; a position that contains many prospects who have MVP-caliber ceilings, a number of prospects having breakouts in the low minors and a lot of recent promotions. Additionally, I have selected the top five outfield prospects from the 2014 draft to discuss.
Note: All statistics are current through Sunday, July 27.
Updated top-20
| Updated | June 10 | Pre-Season | Name | MLB Team | MiLB Team |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | 1 | Byron Buxton | Twins | Fort Myers (High-A) |
| 2 | 2 | 10 | David Dahl | Rockies | Modesto (High-A) |
| 3 | 3 | 8 | Joc Pederson | Dodgers | Albuquerque (AAA) |
| 4 | 5 | 7 | Clint Frazier | Indians | Lake County (Low-A) |
| 5 | 6 | N/R | Raimel Tapia | Rockies | Asheville (Low-A) |
| 6 | 4 | 16 | Jesse Winker | Reds | Pensacola (AA) |
| 7 | 8 | 6 | Jorge Soler | Cubs | Iowa (AAA) |
| 8 | 7 | 11 | Austin Meadows | Pirates | West Virginia (Low-A) |
| 9 | 11 | N/R | Gabriel Guerrero | Mariners | High Desert (High-A) |
| 10 | 9 | 17 | Brandon Nimmo | Mets | Binghamton (AA) |
| 11 | 10 | N/R | Hunter Renfroe | Padres | San Antonio (AA) |
| 12 | 14 | 14 | Lewis Brinson | Rangers | Myrtle Beach (High-A) |
| 13 | 13 | 22 | http://www.nbcsports.com/edge/player/MLB/7028/Nick-WilliamsNick Williams | Rangers | Myrtle Beach (High-A) |
| 14 | 16 | 18 | Rymer Liriano | Padres | San Antonio (AA) |
| 15 | 18 | N/R | http://www.nbcsports.com/edge/player/MLB/6709/Josh-BellJosh Bell | Pirates | Altoona (AA) |
| 16 | 17 | N/R | Manuel Margot | Red Sox | Greenville (Low-A) |
| 17 | 20 | N/R | Nomar Mazara | Rangers | Hickory (Low-A) |
| 19 | 15 | N/R | Mikie Mahtook | Rays | Durham (AAA) |
| 18 | 19 | N/R | Albert Almora | Cubs | Tennessee (AA) |
| 20 | 12 | 20 | Kyle Parker | Rockies | Colorado Springs (AAA) |
Superb Performance
| Updated | June 10 | Pre-Season | Name | MLB Team | MiLB Team |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | 10 | David Dahl | Rockies | Modesto (High-A) |
| 3 | 3 | 8 | Joc Pederson | Dodgers | Albuquerque (AAA) |
| 5 | 6 | N/R | Raimel Tapia | Rockies | Asheville (Low-A) |
| 7 | 8 | 6 | Jorge Soler | Cubs | Iowa (AAA) |
| 9 | 11 | N/R | Gabriel Guerrero | Mariners | High Desert (High-A) |
| 13 | 13 | 22 | http://www.nbcsports.com/edge/player/MLB/7028/Nick-WilliamsNick Williams | Rangers | Myrtle Beach (High-A) |
| 17 | 20 | N/R | Nomar Mazara | Rangers | Hickory (Low-A) |
| 18 | 19 | N/R | Albert Almora | Cubs | Tennessee (AA) |
Any conversation regarding David Dahl is sure to include phrases like “great athlete” and “elite potential,” and he has lived up to his potential in 2014, hitting .305/.345/.501 with Low-A Asheville before being promoted to High-A Modesto. He has the potential to hit .300 in the major leagues with 30-plus doubles and 15-plus home runs, as well as pick up 10-15 bases, making him an all-around fantasy threat.
Joc Pederson missed approximately two weeks with a shoulder injury, returning to continue his impressive season, as he has a .322/.455/.592 line with 14 doubles, four triples and 22 home runs in 407 plate appearances. He has the range to play center field and the arm for right, but his strikeouts (110 in 407 plate appearances, 27.0 percent) are alarming.
Raimel Tapia has been one of the hottest hitters in baseball since the beginning of June, hitting .373/.438/.503 with 14 doubles and three home runs. He has an innate ability to make solid contact and drive pitches, leading to the belief that Tapia has the potential to win multiple batting titles during his peak. He may never hit more than 10-15 home runs, but Tapia could be a big part of a great outfield that also includes David Dahl.
During a season interrupted by injuries, Jorge Soler hit .415/.494/.862 with Double-A Tennessee before being promoted to Triple-A Iowa, where he has continued to hit, putting up a solid .308/.438/.615 over his first five games. Soler profiles as a prototypical right fielder who hits .275 with 20-plus home runs and a very good arm. He could see time in Chicago as soon as early 2015.
Gabriel Guerrero has a similar profile to his uncle, Vlad, ability to hit for a high average, above-average power, swings at everything, makes solid contact on pitches out of the strike zone. His tools are not as loud as his uncle’s, but after a brutal June in which he hit .247/.281/.315 with the same number of strikeouts as total bases (28), his July line of .327/.350/.510 with six doubles and four home runs has been a welcomed improvement. Guerrero will likely spend the rest of the season in the California League and begin 2015 with Double-A Jackson.
After a slow April, http://www.nbcsports.com/edge/player/MLB/7028/Nick-WilliamsNick Williams has hit well in the High-A Carolina League, and has a .303/.355/.505 line with 25 doubles, 4 triples and 11 home runs for the season. He still strikes out too much (101 in 355 plate appearances, 28.5 percent) and walks too infrequently (17, 4.8 percent), but he has the potential to be a center fielder who hits above .300 with 20-plus home runs.
After hitting .223/.298/.363 in April and May, Nomar Mazara has been on fire, hitting .300/.403/.574 with 11 doubles, one triple and 13 home runs in 50 games in June and July. He is still incredibly raw, as is to be expected from a 19-year old in his second full season of professional baseball, but he has the potential to hit .300 with 30-plus home runs. He is unlikely to reach Arlington until 2017.
Albert Almora hit .283/.306/.406 for High-A Daytona, including .377/.395/.649 in July, leading to a promotion to Double-A Tennessee. He has struggled in his first four games in Double-A, but will be given a pass until he plays in more games. Almora has the potential to be a low-walk, low-strikeout gold glove center fielder that hits .300. He could be in the major leagues as soon as 2015, as the Cubs have begun the process of promoting their minor league talent.
Holding serve
| Updated | June 10 | Pre-Season | Name | MLB Team | MiLB Team |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | 1 | Byron Buxton | Twins | Fort Myers (High-A) |
| 4 | 5 | 7 | Clint Frazier | Indians | Lake County (Low-A) |
| 6 | 4 | 16 | Jesse Winker | Reds | Pensacola (AA) |
| 8 | 7 | 11 | Austin Meadows | Pirates | West Virginia (Low-A) |
| 10 | 9 | 17 | Brandon Nimmo | Mets | Binghamton (AA) |
| 11 | 10 | N/R | Hunter Renfroe | Padres | San Antonio (AA) |
| 12 | 14 | 14 | Lewis Brinson | Rangers | Myrtle Beach (High-A) |
| 14 | 16 | 18 | Rymer Liriano | Padres | San Antonio (AA) |
| 15 | 18 | N/R | http://www.nbcsports.com/edge/player/MLB/6709/Josh-BellJosh Bell | Pirates | Altoona (AA) |
| 16 | 17 | N/R | Manuel Margot | Red Sox | Greenville (Low-A) |
| 19 | 15 | N/R | Mikie Mahtook | Rays | Durham (AAA) |
| 20 | 12 | 20 | Kyle Parker | Rockies | Colorado Springs (AAA) |
After missing nearly three full months, Byron Buxton is playing consistently, hitting .261/.329/.478 for High-A Fort Myers. His walk rate is down (from 12.6 with Fort Myers in 2013 to 7.9 percent in 2014), his strikeout rate is up (19.4 percent to 28.9 percent), his isolated power is up (.147 to .217) and his wRC+ is down (155 to 131). It is unclear if Buxton will spend time with Double-A New Britain before the season is over, but a return trip to the Arizona Fall League appears likely. His ceiling has not changed, but he is very unlikely to reach the major leagues this season, as 2015 is the new ETA.
Clint Frazier started 2014 slowly, hitting .243/.319/.365 through the end of June. At a time when many players in their first full professional season begin to wear down, Frazier has broken out, hitting .341/.426/.610 with two doubles, one triple and six home runs to push his season line to .267/.344/.423 with 11 doubles, three triples and 11 home runs. He has the potential to hit .290 with 20-plus home runs, but he will need to improve his pitch recognition and rein in his aggressive approach at the plate.
Jesse Winker hit .317/.426/.580 with High-A Bakersfield, and has come back to earth since his promotion to Double-A, hitting .208/.326/.351 with five doubles and two home runs in his first 21 games. He lacks the tools to be a superstar and profiles as a serviceable left fielder, but he could hit .300 with 10-15 home runs and a high OBP. He could make his major league debut by the end of 2015.
After a few games in the GCL and the Appalachian League, Austin Meadows has settled in with the West Virginia Power of the South Atlantic League, hitting .353/.377/.412 over his first 11 games. Meadows missed the first three months of the season with a hamstring injury, but going slowly as an outfield prospect in the Pirates organization may be a good thing. He profiles as a .300 hitter, but there are questions surrounding his long-term power potential.
Brandon Nimmo hit .322/.448/.458 with High-A St. Lucie before being promoted to Double-A Binghamton where he has struggled to find success, hitting just .211/.336/.382. After exclusively playing center field with St. Lucie (other than six games at DH), he has played approximately 1/3 of his games in left field while with Binghamton. It is unclear if Nimmo will continue to play center field as he fills out, and left field may be where he finds himself.
Hunter Renfroe hit a respectable .295/.370/.565 with High-A Lake Elsinore, but it was the .339/.414/.613 line he put up during his 14-game hitting streak that showed the Padres front office that he was ready for a promotion to Double-A San Antonio. He has struggled over his first 27 games in the Texas League, hitting just .238/.300/.416, but the Padres seem to be disinclined to push him along quickly, and he is unlikely to reach the major leagues before 2016.
Lewis Brinson hit .237/.322/.427 for Low-A Hickory in 2013, and was sent back for 2014 where he hit .335/.405/.579. He has hit .254/.306/.343 in his first 17 games since his promotion to High-A Myrtle Beach. Brinson has the potential to hit .250 with 10-15 home runs while playing gold glove-caliber center field.
Rymer Liriano hit .264/.335/.442 with Double-A San Antonio before being promoted to Triple-A El Paso, where he has been hot over his first five games, hitting .450/.522/.550 with two doubles. Liriano has flashed the tools that could turn him into a prototypical strong-armed right fielder who hits .280 with 20 home runs and 20 stolen bases.
In terms of under-the-radar breakouts in 2014, http://www.nbcsports.com/edge/player/MLB/6709/Josh-BellJosh Bell has been one of the most successful, hitting .335/.384/.502 with 20 doubles, four triples and nine home runs over 84 games with High-A Bradenton before being promoted to Double-A Altoona. He has struggled in his time in the Eastern League, hitting .209/.277/.233 over his first 11 games. Bell projects as a .300 hitter who has 20 home run power, though he may be moved to first base due to below-average defense and a clogged outfield in Pittsburgh.
Manuel Margot has done more than hold his own despite being one of the youngest players in the Low-A South Atlantic League, hitting .262/.333/.411 with 16 doubles, three triples and eight home runs over 84 games. Margot already plays a very good defensive center field, and has great speed, but will need to work to get stronger or he could be overpowered by more advanced pitching. He has the potential to hit .300 with 5-10 home runs and 30-plus stolen bases, and will likely spend the rest of the year in Greenville before going to High-A Salem to start 2015.
Despite a solid .299/.365/.469 season line, Mikie Mahtook has been ice cold since the beginning of July, hitting just .227/.284/.293 with more strikeouts (23) than total bases (22). His profile has not changed, and he still has the talent to hit .300 with 30 doubles and 15 stolen bases, but his limited power ceiling could hurt his overall value in most leagues.
Kyle Parker has been riding I-25 between Colorado Springs and Denver a lot lately, as he has turned into the “extra bat” for the Rockies. Despite his struggles at the major league level (1-for-9, five strikeouts), he has continued to hit in Triple-A, putting up a .295/.345/.470 line. His power has dropped in 2014, as his isolated power has decreased from .204 to .175. For most players, both would be great numbers, but Parker is a below-average outfielder and a serviceable first baseman, so he will need to keep hitting. Additionally, the Pacific Coast League, and particularly Colorado Springs, is filled with hitter-friendly environments, which should offset the improvement in pitching from Double-A to Triple-A. He still projects as someone who may struggle to hit above .260, but he could hit 20-plus home runs.
New Draftees (listed alphabetically)
| Updated | Name | MLB Team | MiLB Team |
|---|---|---|---|
| Draftee | Michael Conforto | Mets | Brooklyn (SSA) |
| Draftee | Braxton Davidson | Braves | GCL (Rookie) |
| Draftee | Alex Jackson | Seattle | AZL (Rookie) |
| Draftee | Kyle Schwarber | Cubs | Daytona (High-A) |
| Draftee | Bradley Zimmer | Indians | Mahoning Valley (SSA) |
Michael Conforto is an advanced college bat that should be playing in Queens by the middle of 2016, if not late-2015. He has the potential to hit 15-20 home runs while hitting .300 with average defense in left field. For his development, it would be best for him to finish the season with Low-A Savannah, but the Mets are notorious for being a little slow to promote prospects from Brooklyn as a way to increase buzz in their local market.
Braxton Davidson’s best defensive position is first base, but he has adequate speed and arm strength to be a corner outfielder. The Braves seem dedicated to the idea of developing him as an outfielder and hoping he does not need to be moved to first base, where he would be blocked by Freddie Freeman. He has the potential to hit .300 with 15 home runs, and there are questions as to whether his swing-and-miss tendencies could limit his production.
Alex Jackson may have been the best prep hitter available in the 2014 draft, as he has the potential to hit .300 with 20-plus home runs. He was a catcher in high school, but he will likely end up in right field due to his strong arm and the potential that he will further fill out his already 6’2” 215 pound frame. The Mariners may also try him at third base, but for now he plays a corner outfield position in rookie-league.
Technically speaking, Kyle Schwarber has a chance to remain behind the plate as a below-average defensive catcher. However, Schwarber’s bat could be ready for Wrigley as soon as the end of 2015, and he would need at least two more full seasons in the minor leagues to have a chance to stick at catcher. The likely result is that Schwarber will shift to left field, where he could turn into a middle-of-the-order threat that hits 25-plus home runs on an annual basis. There are issues with sample size and playing at levels that were not a challenge for him, but hitting .366/.453/.628 over his first 40 professional games is a great start.
Bradley Zimmer, the younger brother of Royals pitching prospect Kyle, followed in his brother’s footsteps and played baseball at the University of San Francisco before becoming a first round pick in the draft. Zimmer profiles as a solid left-handed bat, and he has the potential to steal 20-plus bases on an annual basis. There is some disagreement as to his power potential, as he may not hit more than 15 home runs on an annual basis, but he has the potential to be a solid center fielder who hits .300, so the power would be icing on the cake if he is able to stay in center field.
