George Kirby exits after five solid innings

The Mariners scored three times in the top of the fifth to take a 5-2 lead, but Kirby didn’t get a chance at a win after a J.P. Crawford error and one last walk with one out in the fifth. Kirby had never walked more than three batters in an outing before until tonight. His 4.0 percent walk rate was the fourth lowest mark of pitchers with 800+ innings in the expansion era, behind only Josh Tomlin (3.4 percent), Dan Quisenberry (3.8) and Bob Tewksbury (3.8). Kirby, though, has issued more walks the last two years than he did in his first three seasons. Some thought that might be a good thing — that he used to simply throw too many strikes — but it hasn’t worked out this year. Kirby is 1-3 with a 5.37 ERA in his last 10 starts. He should face the Astros next week.

It would have been interesting to see what the Mariners would have gotten for Kirby at the deadline. Probably more than if they try to move him this winter. The game’s most underachieving starter has given up 12 earned runs in his last three starts and has flopped while facing a decimated A’s offense in back-to-back outings. He seems like a bad play in a road start against the Angels next week.

Kirby’s recent struggles had been limited to his road outings, but back at home tonight, he was outpitched by Jeffrey Springs in another Mariners loss. He has a 6.35 ERA in his last five starts, leaving him 9-11 with a 4.18 ERA overall. He’s neck and neck with Seth Lugo for the most hits allowed in the AL. If he ends up on top, it’d be his second time in three years leading the AL, which seems unfathomable for a pitcher who gets to spend half of his time in a ballpark that just kills batting average. He’ll face the A’s again next weekend, this time in Sacramento. It makes him a poor option in mixed leagues.

Kirby excelled against the Phillies last time out, but this makes three starts out of four in which he’s allowed at least five runs. His ERA is up to 4.19, and this is set to go down as a second straight season of him being a below average starter propped up by his home ballpark. Whether it’s more him to blame or the complacent Mariners, he’s simply not making nearly enough of his talent. Still, he most likely will post better results in a home start against the depleted A’s this weekend.

Kirby needed this one after giving up 11 runs over his last two starts. He stranded a runner in the first inning, then gave up a run on three hits in the second. Kirby would go on to pitch into the eighth without allowing another run, collecting nine strikeouts, the most in his last ten starts. The 28-year-old right-hander will look to build off the strong start when he takes a 4.02 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, and a 126/34 K/BB ratio across 147 2/3 innings into a start against the Red Sox in Boston next Tuesday.

Just a tough day all around for Kirby. He had his worst velocity of the season and gave up 12 hard-hit balls. He also took a couple of pitch clock violations. It’s definitely worth wondering if something is up physically after his third rotten outing in his last five starts. He’s due to face the Phillies next week.

Kirby is simply not right. His lineup spotted him a two-run lead before he took the mound, and immediately gave one of those runs right back via a solo home run by Yordan Alvarez. It’s hard to fault anyone for that, Alvarez is on another level. Yet, the Astros jumped on Kirby for four more runs the following inning. He fell in love with his sweeper and it forced a few ugly swings, but he couldn’t command it very well. He battled all the way until the fifth inning with just those five runs which saved his line some in what was another rough outing. He now has a 3.89 ERA with 114 strikeouts and 31 walks through 136 2/3 innings as he heads into his next scheduled starts against the Brewers in Milwaukee.

He was denied the win after the bullpen faltered in the late innings. Kirby allowed just five hits — all of them singles — while walking one and striking out three. It was a nice bounceback outing for Kirby after he was crushed for seven runs, including four homers, in his last outing against the Rangers. He lowered his ERA to 3.76 with the win, and barring a last-minute trade, he lines up to face the Rays in his next start on Saturday.

Passan adds that the sense is that Kirby is available and could be moved prior to Monday’s deadline. He also notes that Seattle has been listening to offer for Emerson Hancock and Luis Castillo. The Mariners have top prospect Kade Anderson knocking on the door of the majors and figure to move at least one, if not more, of their current rotation members. Kirby would net the largest return in any potential trade package, despite holding a pedestrian 3.98 ERA across 120 innings this season.

Kirby’s velocity dipped quickly today; he averaged 96.9 mph in the first but was down to 95.7 mph in the second and 94.9 mph in the fourth. That’s well off his season average of 96.6 mph, and he gave up more runs today than in his previous four starts combined. It’s the third time in his career that he’s given up four homers; it also happened once in 2022 and once in 2023. Oddly enough, in all three of those starts, he gave up exactly seven runs in between four and 4 2/3 innings. He fell to 8-9 with a 3.98 ERA in advance of a start against the Twins.