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CP3 and LeBron’s All-Time Dominance

Chris Paul

Chris Paul

Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports

Wedding Crashers came out in theaters, The Office started its run on TV, and the New Orleans/Oklahoma City Hornets debuted a rookie point guard named Chris Paul, who would go on to become one of the most outrageously steady fantasy producers of the next 15 years (and counting).

Today, Roundball Stew hops into the fantasy hoops time machine for a look back at the NBA landscape in 2005-06 (and how it connects to 2020), starting with one of the few guys from that season who’s still producing at a high level in the NBA.

Chris Paul (2005-06 ranking: 17th overall)

CP3 came into the league as a 20-year-old rookie and promptly put up stout fantasy stats: 16.1 ppg, 5.1 rpg, 7.8 apg, 2.2 spg and 0.6 3s, good for 17th overall in BasketballMonster.com‘s 9-category rankings (right between Chauncey Billups and Michael Redd, in case you’re wondering). That was the start of a truly ridiculous 15 years of top-shelf consistency, which I shall break down in more detail below:[[ad:athena]]

Chris Paul, Fantasy Production Year-by-Year
2005-06 — 17th overall (see stats above)
2006-07 — 20th overall (17.3 ppg, 4.4 rpg, 8.9 apg, 1.8 spg, 0.8 3s)
2007-08 — 1st overall (21.1 ppg, 4.0 rpg, 11.6 apg, 2.7 spg, 1.2 3s)
2008-09 — 1st overall (22.8 ppg, 5.5 rpg, 11.0 apg, 2.8 spg, 0.8 3s)
2009-10 — 3rd overall (18.7 ppg, 4.2 rpg, 10.7 apg, 2.1 spg, 1.2 3s)
2010-11 — 2nd overall (15.9 ppg, 4.1 rpg, 9.8 apg, 2.4 spg, 0.9 3s)
2011-12 — 2nd overall (19.8 ppg, 3.6 rpg, 9.1 apg, 2.5 spg, 1.3 3s)
2012-13 — 3rd overall (16.9 ppg, 3.7 rpg, 9.7 apg, 2.4 spg, 1.1 3s)
2013-14 — 3rd overall (19.1 ppg, 4.3 rpg, 10.7 apg, 2.5 spg, 1.3 3s)
2014-15 — 4th overall (19.1 ppg, 4.6 rpg, 10.2 apg, 1.9 spg, 1.7 3s)
2015-16 — 6th overall (19.5 ppg, 4.2 rpg, 10.0 apg, 2.1 spg, 1.6 3s)
2016-17 — 8th overall (18.1 ppg, 5.0 rpg, 9.2 apg, 2.0 spg, 2.0 3s)
2017-18 — 9th overall (18.6 ppg, 5.4 rpg, 7.9 apg, 1.7 spg, 2.5 3s)
2018-19 — 21st overall (15.6 ppg, 4.6 rpg, 8.2 apg, 2.0 spg, 2.2 3s)
2019-20 — 14th overall (17.7 ppg, 4.9 rpg, 6.8 apg, 1.6 spg, 1.6 3s)

That’s a lot to digest, but I’ll sum it up thusly: It’s obscene. Consider some of these superlatives:

*Paul finished as a top-three fantasy player seven years in a row, and reeled off a run of 11 straight top-10 seasons. You could’ve closed your eyes between Superbad and Avengers: Infinity War, taking CP3 in the first round every year, and it would have panned out.

*He didn’t finish outside the top-20 one time until 2018-19 — his age-33 season — when he ended up 21st.

*He led the league in steals six times in seven seasons, and has averaged 2.0 spg or better in 11 of his 15 NBA seasons (including this year).

Yes, there is the whole “games played” caveat — Paul has only managed 70 or more games four times in the last decade — but overall, in real life and in fantasy, it’s just a ridiculous career. And with Paul recording yet another top-15 finish at age 34, while only missing one game, it’s a career that suddenly shows few signs of slowing down.

Along those lines, I’d be remiss if I didn’t discuss the production of a guy who came into the league two years before Paul, and has had a similar run of dominance spanning nearly 20 years:

LeBron James (2005-06 rank: 6th overall)

One of Chris Paul’s many amazing feats is that he would have been a worthy second-round fantasy selection in 2005 and 2020. LeBron James takes that up a notch, bookending a 15-year span with first-round-caliber numbers. And, since we did it with Chris Paul, it’s worth taking a quick look at LeBron’s year-by-year fantasy production. Here are his 9-category rankings, dating back to his rookie year of 2003-04:

47th … 5th … 6th … 22nd … 6th … 2nd … 2nd … 3rd … 1st … 2nd … 5th … 12th … 9th … 13th … 6th … 24th … 11th.

It’s not as dominant as Paul’s seven straight years inside the top three — LeBron peaked with five top-three seasons in a row — but the run above is still pretty staggering. And in 2005-06, 21-year-old LBJ was absolutely a monster, averaging a career-best 31.4 ppg to go with 7.0 rpg, 6.6 apg, 1.6 spg, 0.8 bpg and 1.6 3s in 79 games, playing a career-high 42.5(!) minutes a game.

Like CP3, LeBron was extremely durable this season, only missing three games, and it’s wild to think that he’ll be worth a late-first-round fantasy pick later this year as he approaches 36 years of age.

Beyond LBJ and CP3, here are some other names that caught my eye from 2005-06:

Shawn Marion (2005-06 ranking: 1st overall)

Never forget that for a period of five years, Shawn Marion was an absolute supernova. 2005-06 was the second of three straight seasons where he finished first overall, with the best all-around numbers of his career: 21.8 ppg, 11.8 rpg, 1.8 apg, 2.0 spg, 1.7 bpg and 1.2 3s, on 52.5 percent from the field and 80.9 from the line with just 1.5 turnovers.

If you’ve listened to our podcasts covering the 2003-04 and 2004-05 seasons, Steve Alexander and I talk about some stat lines from 15+ years ago that returned early-round value without being all that impressive. Which is to say, it seems to be a bit harder to hit early-round value now than it was back then. And yes, I’m talking about Peja Stojakovic. With Shawn Marion, that’s not the case, and those numbers from 2005-06 would make Marion a legit choice for first overall in 2020 if he climbed in a time machine and churned them out today.

Last thought here — for those who subscribe to the rule of “Never draft anyone over 30”, or are considering getting on board with that idea, the decline for Marion once he left his 20’s was steep and devastating. Consider:

2003-04 — 4th overall (age 25)
2004-05 — 1st overall (age 26)
2005-06 — 1st overall (age 27)
2006-07 — 1st overall (age 28)
2007-08 — 4th overall (age 29)
2008-09 — 35th overall (age 30)
2009-10 — 91st overall (age 31)

I remember being shocked when Marion suddenly fell off, but if you already believed in the over-30 thing, then these numbers fall right into line for you. I’m starting to think that I need to do a deeper dive into this whole thing later this week. In the meantime, as a counter point to not trusting players over 30, please see Paul, Chris and James, LeBron, above.

Gilbert Arenas (2005-06 ranking: 9th overall)

You had some Hall of Famers at or near the height of their powers in 2005-06 — Kevin Garnett was 2nd overall, Kobe Bryant was 3rd, Dirk Nowitzki was 5th, Ray Allen was 7th and Dwyane Wade was 10th — but I’d like to spend my remaining time in the top-10 talking about the career year uncorked by one Agent Zero during the year in question. In 80 games for the Wizards, the then-24-year-old unleashed 29.3 ppg, 3.5 rpg, 6.1 apg, 2.0 spg and 2.5 3s, in a downright silly 42 minutes per game.

Whether those heavy minutes were the culprit or not, time really ran Arenas down. After 2005-06, he had one more big year (28.4 ppg in 2006-07), then averaged just 27 games played over the last five years of his career. He was out of the league by 30 (here comes that argument again), but man — for a few years there in the mid-aughts, the Gilbert Arenas experience was glorious.

Continue reading for notes on Crash Wallace, Chris Webber and of course, Baron Davis.