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NBA Playoff Highlights

Mock Draft: 9-cat Roto

This mock draft was held on Sept. 27, with a mix of Rotoworld writers and hardcore fantasy owners who volunteered to participate. It was held earlier than most drafts, but close enough to the season that it’s an accurate representation of where players are likely to be targeted in an average draft. The format is as follows:

Standard 9-cat, ROTO scoring, snake draft with no keepers

12 teams with 13 players per roster: PG, SG, G, SF, PF, F, C, UTIL, UTIL, UTIL, Bench, Bench, Bench

This was a mock, but in the interest of realism and detail...there was no IR spot. Lineups locked daily. Free agents were thrown into an auction system with an acquisition budget of 200. No limit on trades, league GM was the sole veto for trades, and there was an 82-game limit per position.

Personally, I love 82-game limits. They aren’t restrictive, but reduce the advantage of streaming players and encourage creative DNPs to save games played. It just adds another level of depth and long-term strategy to roto leagues. As much as I love DFS, nothing beats a good season-long league for me.

With all of that out of the way, let’s get to the draft!

*If you look only at the picks and ignore the commentary, be aware that “Team Rob” was an auto-pick. He thought it was the following night, and sincerely apologized, but I told him it might actually be a blessing -- his auto-drafted team was awful. It’s a cautionary tale for us all.

ROUND 1
1James Harden, Hou SGTeam Norof
2Stephen Curry, GS PGTeam Spyropoulos
3Kevin Durant, GS SFTeam Patel
4Russell Westbrook, OKC PGTeam Clarkson
5Kawhi Leonard, SA SFTeam Johnson
6Karl-Anthony Towns, Min C Team Knaus
7Chris Paul, LAC PGTeam Lakodaris
8LeBron James, Cle SFTeam Rob
9Giannis Antetokounmpo, Mil SFTeam Gallagher
10Anthony Davis, Nor PFTeam Nader
11DeMarcus Cousins, Sac CTeam Fox
12Hassan Whiteside, Mia PFTeam Joey

Harden has quickly become my No. 1 target in 8-cat leagues, and you can make a very strong case in 9-cat despite what will be a ridiculous number of turnovers this season. He already led the league in turnovers last year at a whopping 4.6 per game, and has now been given the full PG mantle. That will result in more turnovers but also more assists, and it should yield some easier scoring looks in transition, so the good outweighs the bad for me. A pick you can’t quibble with.

Westbrook falling to No. 4 has something to do with the 9-cat format, and I can’t argue against the 1-5 grouping of Stephen Curry, Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook and Kawhi Leonard. Kawhi is a complete 9-cat stud and I’ll take him at No. 5 every single time. I had to take Towns with the No. 6 pick, CP3 isn’t flashy but he gets the job done every single year and is one of the best PGs to target in 9-cat, which brings us to...LeBron James.

Team Rob was a no-show for the draft, so instead of nabbing Giannis Antetokounmpo, he wound up with LeBron. It’s not the worst outcome possible (he has many worse auto-picks as the draft progresses), but already we see the peril of not showing up. After that pick, Mike snagged Giannis, Jonas went with Anthony Davis’ upside, and Fox took DeMarcus Cousins at No. 11 -- Cousins’ turnovers hurt him in 9-cat, but he’s viable at the turn of the first round.

ROUND 2
13Damian Lillard, Por PGTeam Joey
14Paul George, Ind SFTeam Fox
15Paul Millsap, Atl PFTeam Nader
16Al Horford, Bos CTeam Gallagher
17John Wall, Wsh PGTeam Rob
18Victor Oladipo, OKC SGTeam Lakodaris
19Kyle Lowry, Tor PG Team Knaus
20Kyrie Irving, Cle PGTeam Johnson
21Nikola Jokic, Den PFTeam Clarkson
22Draymond Green, GS SFTeam Patel
23Kristaps Porzingis, NY PFTeam Spyropoulos
24Isaiah Thomas, Bos PGTeam Norof

I like what Joey did at the turn here, locking up both an elite center (Hassan Whiteside) and point guard (Damian Lillard). Whiteside was already a first-round value last season, in under 30 minutes per game, so it’s not a stretch to anticipate top-10 value with expanded minutes and offensive responsibilities.

Paul George fell pretty far before going at No. 14, and Paul Millsap‘s relative dip can be attributed to the recent swelling in his knee. It sounds like a minor concern, but is enough to slide him behind guys like PG and LeBron.

John Wall was another brutal auto-pick. He’s coming off surgeries to both his left and right knees, and isn’t a lock to play on opening night (although reports from training camp have been very positive). Victor Oladipo looks like a better, healthier option here, and I was more than happy to land Kyle Lowry at a relative value with the No. 19 pick. Everyone’s favorite breakout fantasy stud, Nikola Jokic, flew off the board at No. 21 this time. Nobody is sleeping on him and his ADP is rapidly catching up to his upside, so be prepared to splurge on draft day if you want him. Draymond Green went about where I expected, Kristaps Porzingis was a bit early for my liking, and Isaiah Thomas was a safe pick as the best PG on the board.

ROUND 3
25Jimmy Butler, Chi SGTeam Norof
26LaMarcus Aldridge, SA PFTeam Spyropoulos
27Brook Lopez, Bkn CTeam Patel
28Kemba Walker, Cha PGTeam Clarkson
29Eric Bledsoe, Pho PGTeam Johnson
30Serge Ibaka, Orl PF Team Knaus
31Kevin Love, Cle PFTeam Lakodaris
32Blake Griffin, LAC PFTeam Rob
33Myles Turner, Ind PFTeam Gallagher
34C.J. McCollum, Por PGTeam Nader
35Klay Thompson, GS SGTeam Fox
36Nicolas Batum, Cha SFTeam Joey

I said that IT was the best PG remaining. That’s because Eric Bledsoe is a constant injury concern and Kemba Walker isn’t yet fully recovered from surgery to repair a torn meniscus. I like Jimmy Butler early in the third round, and the arrival of Dwyane Wade and Rajon Rondo aren’t likely to knock him out of Top-25 value. LaMarcus Aldridge is a solid value who seems to have lost all cult appeal after joining the Spurs, but he was a top-15 player in 9-cat after the break last year. That’s hard to overlook.

There was a quick run on PFs in this range, with Ibaka, Love and Griffin all flying off the board in succession. Blake’s quad injury has made me leery of drafting him, but all reports from camp have been positive so it’s a reasonable gamble. As with Jokic earlier, you can see that Myles Turner is no longer a potential mid-round steal. Mike’s enthusiasm for his upside has helped to propel him multiple rounds, to the point where you’ll likely need a top-40 pick to get him -- assuming you’re playing against other owners who follow Rotoworld, at least. C.J. McCollum at No. 34 is a bit rich for my taste -- you’re basically paying for his ceiling at that point. His odd PG eligibility might have played into the decision here. Klay Thompson will lose value this year, that much is assured. I’m still fine with taking him in the 35-40 range, under the assumption that even if his points dip, his elite 3-pointers will again be supported by excellent percentages, low turnovers, and a smattering of defensive stats.

ROUND 4
37Pau Gasol, SA PFTeam Joey
38Carmelo Anthony, NY SFTeam Fox
39Nikola Vucevic, Orl CTeam Nader
40Mike Conley, Mem PGTeam Gallagher
41Khris Middleton, Mil SFTeam Rob
42Derrick Favors, Uta PFTeam Lakodaris
43Rudy Gobert, Uta C Team Knaus
44Trevor Ariza, Hou SFTeam Johnson
45Gorgui Dieng, Min CTeam Clarkson
46Gordon Hayward, Uta SGTeam Patel
47Ricky Rubio, Min PGTeam Spyropoulos
48Marc Gasol, Mem CTeam Norof

First of all...Khris Middleton was an obvious auto-draft special. Owning Pau Gasol seems like it will be joyless this season, thanks to the Spurs’ propensity to limit minutes and sprinkle in occasional DNPs. If that’s true for younger guys, it will certainly be true for the 36-year-old Gasol. This is a reasonable range for Carmelo and Conley, the latter of whom was the best remaining PG, but I think Jonas reached a tad for Nikola Vucevic. I’m higher on him than most, as the majority of owners seem leery of him now that Bismack Biyombo has arrived, but I’ve routinely landed him in the 40s and even 50s. It’s still not a bad pick if Vuc can stay healthy -- he’s missed an average of 16.7 games over the past three seasons.

Marc Gasol is a reasonable gamble around the 50 mark, but I’m happy letting someone else take him -- coach David Fizdale has already vowed to monitor his minutes and give him occasional DNP-CDs. Two picks I love here are Trevor Ariza and Gorgui Dieng. Ariza is an iron-man with limited competition, he’s been a top-30 guy for each of the past three seasons (cumulative value), and he’s playing in an ideal offense under Mike D’Antoni. What’s not to love? Dieng is no longer flying under the radar, but he should still be a value in the fourth and fifth rounds. Tom Thibodeau will undoubtedly give him more reliable minutes than he saw last season (27.1 per game), which is all he needs to surge toward early-round value.

ROUND 5
49Ryan Anderson, Hou PFTeam Norof
50Jonas Valanciunas, Tor CTeam Spyropoulos
51Goran Dragic, Mia PGTeam Patel
52Jae Crowder, Bos SFTeam Clarkson
53Marcin Gortat, Wsh CTeam Johnson
54Jeff Teague, Ind PG Team Knaus
55Andrew Wiggins, Min SGTeam Lakodaris
56Andre Drummond, Det CTeam Rob
57D’Angelo Russell, LAL PGTeam Gallagher
58Jabari Parker, Mil SFTeam Nader
59DeMar DeRozan, Tor SGTeam Fox
60Evan Fournier, Orl SGTeam Joey

Of the three point guards drafted in this round, I’m most partial to Goran Dragic. The Dragon has missed an average of 5.0 games over the past five seasons, and he’s poised for a bigger role now that Dwyane Wade (with his lofty usage) is in Chicago. D’Angelo Russell is a probable breakout candidate, but I was more comfortable taking Jeff Teague. It’s a bit conservative, but I was fine to add a veteran PG who rarely misses games and has posted top-40 value (cumulative) in three of the past five seasons.

I’m not the least bit concerned about Jae Crowder this season -- neither Al Horford nor Jaylen Brown should impact his two-way production. Andrew Wiggins figures to have a massive role under Tom Thibodeau, and he’s a few 3-pointers and defensive stats away from stud status. Jabari Parker‘s offensive load increased when the Bucks lost their leading scorer, possibly for the season. Last year he was a poor source of 3-pointers (0.1), assists (1.7), blocks (0.4) and FT% (76.8%), but it makes sense to bet on his continued development.

ROUND 6
61Zach LaVine, Min PGTeam Joey
62Dennis Schroder, Atl PGTeam Fox
63Chandler Parsons, Mem SFTeam Nader
64Tobias Harris, Det PFTeam Gallagher
65DeAndre Jordan, LAC CTeam Rob
66Enes Kanter, OKC CTeam Lakodaris
67Nerlens Noel, Phi C Team Knaus
68Brandon Knight, Pho PGTeam Johnson
69Aaron Gordon, Orl PFTeam Clarkson
70Reggie Jackson, Det PGTeam Patel
71Jrue Holiday, Nor PGTeam Spyropoulos
72Devin Booker, Pho SGTeam Norof

Zach LaVine was unleashed after the break last year, averaging 35.0 minutes in the final two months, resulting in averages of 16.4 points, 2.4 triples, 2.5 rebounds, 2.8 assists, 1.2 steals, 0.3 blocks and 2.0 turnovers. He also shot 47.9% from the field during that span, and it added up to top-75 value. He’s a reasonable target here, but I’m not as sold on Dennis Schroder or Chandler Parsons...for very different reasons. Schroder is tempting as a guy with unlimited minutes coming his way -- the Hawks have precious little depth behind him, and Jarrett Jack is coming off major surgery. Schroder had a 29.2% usage rate last year, and will be a great source of points, 3-pointers, assists and steals, but he has the potential to tank you in two categories -- FG% and turnovers. He shot just 42.1% from the field and per-36-minutes he turned it over 4.1 times, severely hurting his appeal in 9-cat leagues. That said, Team Fox began the draft with DeMarcus Cousins and was in all likelihood consciously punting/ignoring turnovers.

Getting back to Parsons, I’m simply too worried about his health to burn a top-75 pick on him. Consecutive seasons ended by knee surgeries, a lack of clearance for contact during training camp...it’s just too risky for me when players like Tobias Harris on the board.

My decision to snag Noel here raised some eyebrows, giving me a ridiculous frontcourt with Noel joining Rudy Gobert, Serge Ibaka and Karl-Anthony Towns. Last season, those four combined to average 36.3 rebounds, 3.7 steals and 7.2 blocks, with excellent FG%. I also picked up two PGs with Kyle Lowry and Jeff Teague, freeing me to target swingmen with abandon in the back-half of the draft. Locking up PGs and big men early isn’t always a great idea -- it depends upon your draft position, which players fall to you, etc. -- but in this case I felt good about it.

One last note here -- Rob’s auto-draft team robbed anyone else of taking a pure punt-FT% approach, as he now has Andre Drummond and DeAndre Jordan on a team that also includes LeBron James and Blake Griffin.

ROUND 7
73Bradley Beal, Wsh SGTeam Norof
74Dirk Nowitzki, Dal PFTeam Spyropoulos
75Avery Bradley, Bos SGTeam Patel
76Robin Lopez, Chi CTeam Clarkson
77Jordan Clarkson, LAL PGTeam Johnson
78Wesley Matthews, Dal SG Team Knaus
79Kent Bazemore, Atl SGTeam Lakodaris
80Rajon Rondo, Chi PGTeam Rob
81Nikola Mirotic, Chi PFTeam Gallagher
82Jusuf Nurkic, Den CTeam Nader
83Rudy Gay, Sac SFTeam Fox
84Gary Harris, Den SGTeam Joey

With the first six rounds in the bag, I’m shifting the format and will only mention a handful of picks that I liked or disliked from each round.

Liked: Avery Bradley has proven he can stay healthy, minutes won’t be an issue, and he’s coming off a terrific year...his stats were comparable to the Zach LaVine numbers listed above. Robin Lopez is another nice, underrated pickup in the middle of drafts. I’m expecting more than last year’s 26.9 minutes per game, but even that was good enough for top-60 value. I’m high on Wes Matthews this year, and also loved the picks of Kent Bazemore and Nikola Mirotic. Can’t argue with Rudy Gay here, either, given his long track record of fantasy success.

Disliked: Bradley Beal has never impressed me, fantasy-wise, with weak across-the-board numbers compounded by an inability to stay healthy. Rajon Rondo was actually a fine pick for the auto-draft team, which is unintentionally going all-out on the punt-FT% strategy! In general, I view Rondo as a necessary evil for owners who whiffed on assists and/or steals in previous rounds. Jusuf Nurkic has gone to Jonas (Team Nader) in every single mock I’ve done with him, usually a round or two earlier than this. I’m not huge on him as a center who turns the ball over a ton and hurts you in both FG% and FT%, so I doubt he’ll fall to me in any leagues.

ROUND 8
85Darren Collison, Sac PGTeam Joey
86Jeremy Lin, Bkn PGTeam Fox
87Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Det SGTeam Nader
88Otto Porter Jr., Wsh SFTeam Gallagher
89Dwyane Wade, Chi SGTeam Rob
90Marvin Williams, Cha SFTeam Lakodaris
91Robert Covington, Phi PF Team Knaus
92Greg Monroe, Mil PFTeam Johnson
93JJ Redick, LAC SGTeam Clarkson
94Harrison Barnes, Dal SFTeam Patel
95Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, Bkn SFTeam Spyropoulos
96Dwight Howard, Atl CTeam Norof

Liked: Few players moved into a more favorable position than Harrison Barnes, but he’s getting very little love in the drafts I’ve done. Spikes in scoring, 3-pointers, rebounds and assists should easily outweigh higher turnovers and any dip in FG%, so I like him to beat this modest valuation. Marvin Williams handily beat this 8th-round value last year. The return of Michael Kidd-Gilchrist may dent his appeal a bit, but not enough to drop him outside of the top-100.

Disliked: Darren Collison is a calculated risk, given that we’re not sure how long he’ll be out. It could be 10 games, but the league did suspend Jeff Taylor 24 games for a domestic abuse incident a few years back, so there’s precedent for a longer suspension. On a per-36-minute basis, Jeremy Lin has never cracked top-140 value in 9-cat leagues (with the exception of his Linsanity fluke, which was a small sample size).

ROUND 9
97Alex Len, Pho CTeam Norof
98Rodney Hood, Uta SGTeam Spyropoulos
99Steven Adams, OKC CTeam Patel
100George Hill, Uta PGTeam Clarkson
101Ben Simmons, Phi PFTeam Johnson
102Danilo Gallinari, Den SF Team Knaus
103Courtney Lee, NY SGTeam Lakodaris
104Thaddeus Young, Ind SFTeam Rob
105Danny Green, SA SGTeam Gallagher
106Kris Dunn, Min PGTeam Nader
107Elfrid Payton, Orl PGTeam Fox
108DeMarre Carroll, Tor SFTeam Joey

Liked: Danilo Gallinari at No. 102 was a no-brainer for me. Danny Green is the forgotten man after last year’s inexplicable struggles, but his 9-cat upside is too great to ignore. George Hill is an underrated gem of a 9-cat PG, and he’s ideally situated in Utah. DeMarre Carroll was a strong choice for Team Joey at No. 108, which is low enough to compensate for any health concerns (he’s admitted that he’s still not 100%).

Disliked: Alex Len finally stayed healthy last year, but he took a step back statistically with just 0.8 blocks to accompany his 9.0 points on 42.4% shooting. He even turned it over 1.9 times in just 23.3 minutes per game, and the Suns’ concern about his long-term health makes it unlikely that his playing time will surge this year.

ROUND 10
109Joel Embiid, Phi CTeam Joey
110Deron Williams, Dal PGTeam Fox
111Monta Ellis, Ind SGTeam Nader
112Seth Curry, Dal SGTeam Gallagher
113Julius Randle, LAL PFTeam Rob
114Mirza Teletovic, Mil PFTeam Lakodaris
115Markieff Morris, Wsh PF Team Knaus
116Bismack Biyombo Orl CTeam Johnson
117Jahlil Okafor, Phi CTeam Clarkson
118Joakim Noah, NY CTeam Patel
119Clint Capela, Hou CTeam Spyropoulos
120Eric Gordon, Hou SGTeam Norof

Liked: Nothing in this round blows me away, but I like the sneaky pick of Seth Curry, and the upside offered by Eric Gordon playing in the Rockets’ system.

Disliked: Bismack Biyombo does nothing for me, especially with Nikola Vucevic fighting him for minutes. If I’m targeting a late-round center, I’d rather roll the dice on a guy with proven upside like Joakim Noah, or even Andrew Bogut. I’m not convinced that Mirza Teletovic will get enough minutes to make case for top-120 value...I’d take him with a flier in the final round, but that’s about it.

ROUND 11
121Stanley Johnson, Det SFTeam Norof
122Patrick Beverley, Hou PGTeam Spyropoulos
123Marcus Smart, Bos PGTeam Patel
124Luol Deng, LAL SFTeam Clarkson
125Buddy Hield, Nor SGTeam Johnson
126J.R. Smith, Cle SG Team Knaus
127Trey Lyles, Uta PFTeam Lakodaris
128Kenneth Faried, Den PFTeam Rob
129Brandon Ingram, LAL PFTeam Gallagher
130Dario Saric, Phi SFTeam Nader
131Emmanuel Mudiay, Den PGTeam Fox
132Justise Winslow, Mia SGTeam Joey

Liked: Emmanuel Mudiay at No. 131 is a worthy gamble, even if he was a massive anchor for 9-cat owners last season. After the All-Star break last year, he improved his scoring, FG%, FT%, 3-pointers (both makes and percentage), rebounds, and turnovers, all while playing just 0.5 more minutes. I anticipate a big leap forward this year. Kenneth Faried has really lost his shine for fantasy owners, huh? He’s a value in the 120s. Justise Winslow is also a probable value pick with an expanded role for the post-Wade Heat.

Disliked: I’m inherently skeptical of rookie’s fantasy values, particularly this class, and I’d wager that Buddy Hield, Brandon Ingram and Dario Saric will all be net-negative 9-cat players until the All-Star break. Of that trio, though, I’d gamble on Saric -- who knows what might happen in Philly?

ROUND 12
133Jerryd Bayless, Phi PGTeam Joey
134Andrew Bogut, Dal CTeam Fox
135Tim Frazier, Nor SGTeam Nader
136Kyle Korver, Atl SGTeam Gallagher
137Andre Iguodala, GS SFTeam Rob
138Norman Powell, Tor SGTeam Lakodaris
139Jerami Grant, Phi SF Team Knaus
140Terrence Jones, Nor PFTeam Johnson
141Will Barton, Den SGTeam Clarkson
142Allen Crabbe, Por SGTeam Patel
143Tyreke Evans, Nor SFTeam Spyropoulos
144Al-Farouq Aminu, Por SFTeam Norof

Liked: Kyle Korver had three straight top-50 seasons before dropping off last year. He started the season with health issues and never quite looked comfortable, but now that he’s healthy there’s no reason to pass him up in the 12th round. Terrence Jones’ nightmare season is in the rearview and he gets a fresh start in New Orleans, where he’ll frequently join pal Anthony Davis in the frontcourt -- they could even start together depending upon matchups. He and Will Barton both represent solid upside picks this late in the draft.

Disliked: Jerami Grant was a poor choice for me here. The Sixers’ rotation is inscrutable and will likely be changing throughout the year, and Grant offers nothing except blocks -- the exact category I needed least.

ROUND 13
145Derrick Rose, NY PGTeam Norof
146Josh Richardson, Mia SGTeam Spyropoulos
147Zach Randolph, Mem PFTeam Patel
148Evan Turner, Por SGTeam Clarkson
149Jared Dudley, Pho SFTeam Johnson
150Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Cha SF Team Knaus
151Michael Beasley, Mil SFTeam Lakodaris
152Michael Carter-Williams, Mil PGTeam Rob
153Malcolm Brogdon, Mil SGTeam Gallagher
154Chris McCullough, Bkn PFTeam Nader
155Jared Sullinger, Tor PFTeam Fox
156Kevin Garnett, Min PFTeam Joey

LOVED: Kevin Garnett as the final pick of a mock draft. Respect the legend.

Liked: This might be the first time I’ve ever said this...I liked the Derrick Rose pick. He has plenty going against him, from off-court problems to three straight years of awful play, but as a pickup in the final round? Sure. Josh Richardson should also be a sneaky value once he returns from his partially torn ACL.

Disliked: Michael Kidd-Gilchrist has yet to stay healthy or prove that he can contribute more than some rebounds with solid FG%. I should have picked up another PG here -- Ty Lawson will open the season as the Kings’ starter for an indefinite period, and would have been a nice source of assists which could turn into a streaming spot once DC returns.

Also...seriously, was the ESPN auto-draft intentionally drafting every bad FT% player it could find? Rob’s team finished with LeBron, Blake Griffin, DeAndre Jordan, Andre Drummond, Rajon Rondo, Thaddeus Young, Julius Randle, Kenneth Faried, Andre Iguodala and Michael Carter-Williams. Surreal.

NBA Playoff Highlights