This weekly article gets us ready for NFL DFS by considering some of the safest stacks, contrarian stacks, and a mini-stack or two. The premise is based on research showing the degree of correlation between one player’s fantasy output and another in his game. Among the strongest correlations are QB-QB(opponent), QB-WR1, QB-WR2, QB-WR1(opponent), QB-TE, and RB-D/ST. These are for the main slate on Sunday.
Safe Stacks:
Tennessee at Jacksonville:
Option A: Ryan Tannehill, Derrick Henry, James Robinson
Option B: Mike Glennon, A.J. Brown, Collin Johnson
This game could be the best for DFS players this weekend. Both defenses allow a ton of fantasy points – overall and by position. There are undoubtedly other ways to put together a TEN-JAX game stack, but these are two I like a lot. It’s tough to choose between quarterbacks here, though price can be persuasive. Glennon has been favoring Johnson lately, and Johnson has led wide receivers in yards the past two games. I assume Laviska Shenault will play Sunday, and there are several other pass-catchers, including Tyler Eifert, who could produce. Johnson offers what seems like a decent floor with upside for the least amount of salary. Pairing this Jags duo with Brown captures the best of the Titans’ pass game, and you can afford Brown’s high salary with Glennon and Johnson easily. Brown has just one really bad game (Indianapolis), so although Corey Davis is tempting, Brown is the safest and highest upside Titans receiver.[[ad:athena]]
If you pay a bit more for Tannehill, you definitely get a higher floor at QB, but given that QBs succeed at a Top 5 rate against both defenses, it doesn’t matter too much. Pairing Tannehill with Henry allows you to capture probably all of the Titans’ offensive touchdowns. With a Vegas total of 53.5, and the Titans 7.5-point favorites, they are projected to score a few. Jacksonville is the fifth-best RB matchup for fantasy, but Tennessee is just a couple fantasy points behind. Thus, I’m adding James Robinson to this version of the game stack. Robinson is just behind Derrick Henry in both total touches and PPR fantasy points. It’s expensive, but a very high-floor way to start a cash game lineup this weekend.
Green Bay at Detroit: Aaron Rodgers, Aaron Jones, D’Andre Swift
It feels like the Packers make their way into this spot every week. Like the game above, there are several ways to stack this one. The Packers are over a touchdown favorite in a 55.5 point over/under game despite being on the road. We’ve seen Green Bay run up the score, utilizing Rodgers’ arm even when the games are well within hand. With one of the highest implied team totals this week, a metric that correlates well with QB performance, I’m taking Rodgers without any qualms. As suggested above, pairing him with Jones captures the offensive scoring for the Packers, barring any Jamaal Williams’ snipes on the goal line, which can happen. Jones gets the absolute best RB matchup in the league, and he is one of the reasons why they maintain that title. The first time these teams met, Jones scored three touchdowns and accumulated over 230 total yards. Swift returned to practice and that puts him in line to play Sunday. After missing a couple weeks with a concussion, Swift rushes into the third-best matchup for the position. I’m not worried about his usage should the Lions get down early, given that Swift averages about five targets per game.
Indianapolis at Las Vegas: Philip Rivers, Jonathan Taylor, Michael Pittman/T.Y. Hilton
Rivers finds himself in another great spot. The Raiders allow the 10th-most fantasy points overall and ninth-most to QBs. Derek Carr and the Vegas offense are wild cards from week to week, and I certainly don’t trust them against one of the league’s stingiest defenses. The Colts have a variety of weapons at Rivers’ disposal, and it has been tough to choose from among them. I like Taylor over Nyheim Hines this week, because when he returned last week, he and Hines had the same number of targets, and Taylor once again led the team in rushes. Las Vegas is the fourth-best RB matchup, too. Hilton has had two back-to-back good games. Call me crazy, but I’m not ready to buy in fully. Hilton and Pittman occupy almost the same exact salary space, and have been getting mostly similar targets, and are identical in that respect in the red zone. Hilton scored in Week 13, but Pittman is still very involved, and also has the highest catch rate among Indy receivers. Given that Hilton had done NOTHING up until Week 12 (he got about half his fantasy points on the season in these last two games), I’m inclined to stick with Pittman here. That said, Hilton is a couple dollars cheaper on Yahoo, so you might choose to go with him on that site.
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Contrarian Stacks:
LA Chargers vs. Atlanta: Justin Herbert, Mike Williams, Hunter Henry, Calvin Ridley
How quickly the tide turns, right Justin Herbert? From fantasy darling who can’t do wrong to fantasy pariah, maybe it was the haircut. Actually, maybe it was facing two good AFC East defenses back-to-back that slowed the rookie down. Now that he’s getting a chance to face a defense that hasn’t slowed QBs down at all (giving up the most fantasy points to the position), Herbert should be back on your radar. Make the stack a little different with Williams and Henry instead of Keenan Allen, who is a more obvious play. Williams has 14 targets in the last two games, though he didn’t make much of them. Henry looked like the forgotten man vs. New England, but saw 10 targets the week prior. Should Atlanta key in on Allen, like Buffalo did, both Williams and Henry could have huge days. Ridley won’t be so contrarian, especially if Julio Jones ends up sitting another game out, but he’s matchup-proof and is capable of as much upside as any receiver in the league. On a per game basis, Ridley is fantasy’s seventh-best WR, but his Yahoo salary ranks 15th among WRs.
Seattle vs. NY Jets: Russell Wilson, Ty Johnson, Tyler Lockett, Chris Carson
Normally, Seattle wouldn’t fall into the contrarian category, but given that the Seahawks’ salaries are still so high, and the performance has been so low, I have to do it. I still believe in big games from Wilson, Lockett and DK Metcalf. The Jets allow the third-most real points and fantasy points to their opponents this season. The Jets are better against the run than the pass, but still not good against the run (when they face a competent rushing attack). I chose Lockett over Metcalf for the receiver component because he is more volatile, with a high ceiling and lower floor, and I think he’ll fare better than Metcalf in what could be some nasty weather. Given how bad Seattle’s defense has been this year, it’s tempting to consider multiple Jets here too. I’m sticking with just Johnson, who appeared in the Bargain Bin article earlier this week too. He was excellent in relief of Frank Gore last week, and the Jets have to be thinking of making this shift permanent. It’s negligence to do otherwise, given Gore’s age and concussion status.
Mini-Stack of the week:
Tom Brady and ___________(that’s a fill in the blank)
If Chris Godwin were guaranteed 100 percent healthy, he’d be my pick here. This feels like a great spot for Brady, coming off a bye and facing a hot Vikings team that scores, but also gets scored on. Like Tampa Bay themselves. Minnesota’s young secondary allows the third-most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers, so considering Mike Evans, Godwin and Antonio Brown for one of those slots in your DFS lineups is smart. Evans has been the touchdown king, Brown worries me with Godwin back, and Godwin himself is complicated. He could be used as a decoy, or he could dominate the game…his legs are fine, after all, and he finally got in a full practice, at least. Take a mix-and-match approach in multi-entry tournaments with Brady at the helm this weekend.
