This article lays out my favorite ways to take advantage of positional correlations in DFS scoring through stacking. Factors that go into this strategy include the implied team total, the talent of the players, the opposing defense (especially any funneling tendencies), and the likely popularity of the players.
Safe Stacks
Tennessee Titans at Houston: Ryan Tannehill, A.J. Brown, Derrick Henry, Jonnu Smith
Houston has nothing to play for in this game as their fate as the No. 3 or 4 seed in the AFC will be decided by the Chiefs in the early slot. Tennessee, however, will be playing hard as a win secures them the No. 6 seed. Fortunately for them, a starting Texans Defense still gave up the third-most fantasy points to QBs and eighth-most to running backs this season. With some potential players resting this week, Tannehill and Henry, who rested last week to get fully healthy, should have plenty of room to work. Even after missing a game, Henry is the sixth- or seventh-best running back in fantasy this season. However, one of his only three bad games did come in Week 15 against the Texans, where he failed to find the end zone or 100 rushing yards. Still, if he’s not hampered by the hamstring any more, he should be worth the steep price tag. The connection between Tannehill and Brown needs no explanation; they’ve been on fire for weeks, though a trick run play did kind of save Brown’s Week 16 fantasy line. He caught 8-of-13 passes against Houston in Week 15, and should be in line for more of the same. Since this game is so important, and carries a high point total and implied team total for the Titans, you might go all-in with Smith. You know I love the athletic TE, and it’s finally catching on as he has double-digit fantasy points in three games straight. It helps that he’s still reasonably priced on both sites.
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Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay game stack: Matt Ryan, Julio Jones, Austin Hooper, Breshad Perriman
Doesn’t it figure that the game with the highest point total of the week has nothing on the line. We’ll still be watching every play as these two teams are likely to surpass 30 real points apiece. Tampa Bay is the best WR matchup, though they remain almost impossible to run on. I like Russell Gage as a bargain option for the Falcons, but Jones is a must-have this week. He and Matt Ryan are playing terrific together, so although Ryan struggled when these teams met in Week 12, I expect better things this time around. Hooper isn’t a must have, but it is a good game environment, and for all the press that Arizona gets for being generous to opposing tight ends, the Bucs aren’t far behind them. I’m relying most heavily on the Falcons for obvious reasons, but Perriman is coming off a 12-target game as the Bucs WR1 and he caught seven of them for 102 yards. He’s an expensive, but solid play this week as the Falcons also rate as one of the top passing/receiving matchups for fantasy.
Contrarian Stacks
Dallas Cowboys vs. Washington: Dak Prescott, Amari Cooper and Ezekiel Elliott
The Cowboys have to win here, and they should, easily. Still late season division matchups aren’t always as cake-walk simple as they should be. Dallas absolutely collapsed vs. the Eagles last week, and the memory of that will likely keep their ownership down. Cooper was targeted 12 times in that loss, and actually managed only five more receiving yards than he did on two targets the previous week (24 vs. 19 receiving yards). Both were ugly. He’s a big play guy though and has as high a ceiling as anyone when healthy. I’m confident that he and Prescott will get on the same page for this must-win game. Prescott threw for 269 yards and three touchdowns while rushing for an additional 69 yards in the first game with Washington back in September. It’s unclear how much a sore shoulder is impacting his ability lately, but Washington won’t be as motivated to stop him as Philly was last week. I think a better day is coming.
Elliott in all honesty won’t be very contrarian. He’s one of, if not the, only running backs in a meaningful game, a work-horse role, and fully healthy. Like Julio Jones, he’s a near lock for me this weekend. If you wanted to stack both sides of this game, you could consider adding in Steven Sims Jr., who is still cheap but has 10 and 11 targets in the last two games.
Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati: Baker Mayfield, Odell Beckham Jr., Nick Chubb, Kareem Hunt
The Browns were a major disappointment whether we’re talking best balls, season-long fantasy, futures betting or most weeks of DFS. This is their chance – and yours – at redemption. You can’t end the regular season without one more crack at this talented bunch of underachievers. Every one of them, except Hunt, was bad to awful against the Bengals a couple weeks ago. I figure most people are going to look right past them as we hunt out the meaningful games and motivated players, but this is still a good spot for the Browns, and they are priced very well.
Cincinnati is a Top 10 passing and rushing matchup, and speaking of motivation, OBJ isn’t far from 1000 receiving yards, a mark he’s hit in every single season where he’s played at least 12 games (so, excluding 2017). He’s hurt, but he will play Sunday and I think they’ll try to at least get him to that milestone. The Bengals have been a solid running back matchup all season and I think it’s fine to go with both Chubb and Hunt here. The Browns are pretty thin at WR/TE, and Hunt is making up the slack most weeks.
Mini Stacks
Tom Brady and James White, Patriots D/ST
The Patriots can secure the bye and home field advantage in the playoffs by simply beating the Dolphins. Miami allows opponents the most points per game, and they rank second in fantasy points allowed to both QB and WR, giving up the sixth-most to RBs. White is a little bit of both, and he caught a touchdown against them earlier in the season. He’s been the most consistent among the backs, as usual. I don’t usually roll with Brady, but this is really a can’t miss spot for him at home, must-win game, momentum for the playoffs, all his favorite things. The D/ST is an after-thought, or a non-thought since many of you just lock them in on a weekly basis regardless of price. I’m fine with it this week.
Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams
These two put on a show Monday night, and while Green Bay is still playing for that elusive bye, we should expect to see some more fireworks in Detroit. The Lions are a dream matchup for Rodgers and Adams, as much less talented duos have racked up the points against them all season long. Adams missed the first chance at this particular glory, but Rodgers was still his usual self with nearly 300 passing yards and two touchdowns. I’m not going to argue against Aaron Jones, but I think if the game gets out of hand, he’ll be one to sit safely on the sidelines.
