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This weekly article gets us ready for NFL DFS by considering some of the safest stacks, contrarian stacks, and a mini-stack or two. The premise is based on research showing the degree of correlation between one player’s fantasy output and another in his game. Among the strongest correlations are QB-QB(opponent), QB-WR1, QB-WR2, QB-WR1(opponent), QB-TE, and RB-D/ST. These are for the main slate on Sunday.
Safe Stacks:
LA Rams vs. Arizona: Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kupp, Robert Woods, Christian Kirk
This game should be a scoring fest with both teams ranking in the Top 3 for points scored so far. Both Kyler Murray and Stafford have been terrific, with only a couple fantasy points per game separating them to this point. I choose Stafford as my safe QB play for two reasons: he’s much cheaper than Murray and his team is favored in the game, giving the Rams one of the best implied team totals this weekend. Furthermore, he has Kupp, the league’s top WR by a wide margin. Kupp will cost you, but he’s at least not the most expensive guy on one site (DK), and he should be worth it. Despite Arizona’s defense being a nice fantasy play recently, they allow opposing WRs the 10th most fantasy points per game. Figuring this to be a true shootout, I’m finally trusting Woods to get something done. His targets have been a bit up and down (between four and nine per game), and he did score in Week 1, but has largely been a non-factor. He’s very reasonably priced, and could be one of the better values of the slate. I’d understand if you wanted to solve the tight end slot with Tyler Higbee, but I don’t view him as a guarantee to score every week just because he did last week. If you were looking to differentiate with somewhat more risk/reward than Woods or Higbee, you could consider DeSean Jackson, but I’d rather not. To round out the game stack, I’m staying away from DeAndre Hopkins. The rib injury he’s still dealing with clearly puts him in a position where he and the team don’t want him getting hit repeatedly. Since rib injuries can linger, unless Hopkins logs a couple full practices, I’m avoiding him in favor of Kirk for cash games, or A.J. Green or Rondale Moore in tournaments. [[ad:athena]]
Dallas Cowboys vs. Carolina: Dak Prescott, CeeDee Lamb, Amari Cooper, D.J. Moore
This is another situation where I’m eager to stack up the pass games. I’m betting on offense winning out over defense in this one, but still avoiding the Cowboys’ run game given that the Panthers have been absolute death to opponents’ rushing plans. Alvin Kamara may be the only true test they’ve had, but still; they’ve allowed 48 or fewer rushing yards in all three games so far. Prescott hasn’t lit the fantasy world on fire yet, but he’s been fine, above average in attempts (111), completion percentage (77.5), and TD:INT ratio (6:2). At home, I expect to see numbers more like what he did in Week 1 vs. Tampa Bay. Cooper and Lamb account for three of his passing touchdowns and over 400 receiving yards on very similar volume. It’s impossible to choose between them, and so far, both rank in the Top 20 among receivers. Recency effects may have many people clamoring to get Dalton Schultz in their lineups this week after his monster Week 3, but this is a mistake. TE production, especially TD-dependent TE production is going to fluctuate. Nothing about Schultz suggests that he is all of a sudden going to be the go-to guy for Prescott. Not saying he won’t be fine, but I think there are better TE options this week.
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Cleveland Browns at Minnesota: Baker Mayfield/Kirk Cousins, Nick Chubb, Odell Beckham Jr., Kareem Hunt, Justin Jefferson/Adam Thielen
Choose your own adventure with this game. There are enough viable fantasy options to create three or four good lineups here, starting with QB. Cousins has been fantastic this season and still feels very underpriced on FanDuel ($7500) and DraftKings ($6400). This game only has a 2-point spread (Cleveland is the small road favorite), with a 51.5-point over/under…which is why I also think Baker Mayfield could come through for us. Minnesota ranks sixth in fantasy points allowed to opposing QBs this season, and Mayfield has been able to come through when he has to. Obviously, the Browns love their running backs, and I think both Chubb and Hunt are great plays this week. Chubb is coming off a down game in which the defense and Hunt dominated, but that is the exception with him, not the rule. Better numbers are in store for Chubb this week, while Hunt remains a cheap, high-floor, high-upside option for all contests. With Jarvis Landry on IR, we have to imagine the passing game for Mayfield flows largely through OBJ. Providing there is no bad news about his shoulder as the week progresses, he should be in line for a lot of volume in the potential shoot-out. I’m personally avoiding the Dalvin Cook/Alexander Mattison decision for now, and maybe for good this week, given that the Browns have been brutal against the run and this would be a fast turnaround for Cook’s ankle. Still, we need some piece of the Vikings’ offense and luckily, both Adam Thielen and Justin Jefferson are safe plays. Both are Top 10 WRs in half-PPR scoring this season, with Jefferson out-targeting Thielen, but Thielen having four scores to Jefferson’s two. I’ll be happy and not surprised to see both in the end zone again this weekend.
Contrarian Stack:
San Francisco 49ers vs. Seattle: Jimmy Garoppolo, Deebo Samuel, George Kittle, Elijah Mitchell/Trey Sermon, Tyler Lockett/DK Metcalf
This is another high scoring game between division rivals where the 49ers are somewhat surprising favorites. I expect more of the field to be on Russell Wilson at the higher price point given that Garoppolo is Garoppolo. Still, this game script should favor the pass game and Garoppolo’s ceiling is higher than we’ve seen. Samuel has been terrific in the WR1 role, and even with Brandon Aiyuk improving steadily, I’m choosing to go back to Kittle in this tournament lineup. Kittle has disappointed, a lot, but it’s mostly because he hasn’t scored. With 15 catches on 18 targets, he is actually third in the league in receiving yards among TEs, notably ahead of Rob Gronkowski in both metrics. He should enjoy very low rostership this weekend. I’d love to confidently target the SF run game, but it’s too soon to say what exactly that’s going to look like. Mitchell should be back from his shoulder stinger, and Sermon will almost certainly be in the mix. It’s notable that the Seahawks have allowed more fantasy points to opposing running backs than anyone this season. The 49ers were always going to deploy a two or three-headed rushing attack, splitting drives between backs or sticking with a hot hand, so uncertainty is nothing new with this team. Ideally, you can hedge a bit with some Mitchell lineups and some Sermon lineups. Rounding it out with a Seahawks’ receiver isn’t totally necessary, but with both Lockett and Metcalf being the stars that they are, I want one or both here. I figure a lot of people will want to go back to Metcalf after his big Week 3 performance, but where Lockett’s salary has dropped, I like him just as much or more (assuming his hip/knee injury designation disappears by Friday). If there’s any suspicion that Lockett is questionable heading into Sunday, just lock in Metcalf.
Mini-Stack of the week:
Tennessee at NY Jets: Titans D/ST, Derrick Henry
Tennessee is the second-most expensive unit on every site except Yahoo, which makes sense if you only consider their performance so far against teams like Arizona and Seattle. The Jets co-lead the slate in turnovers (seven, second overall behind Jacksonville and tied with the Titans themselves) and average five sacks of Zach Wilson per game, tied with Chicago for most in the league. We’re banking on opportunity for sacks and takeaways, combined with a low offensive output by the Jets, who average the fewest points per game. Henry is a no-brainer on this slate, not only given what he’s done, but also what the Jets allow: the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing backs. Set these two and forget it.
