In this weekly article, we’ll look at the cheaper options that should return good value to your NFL DFS lineups. The bargain threshold varies by site, and position, but generally we’ll aim for our bargain plays to take up about 8-10 percent of your salary cap, except for quarterbacks, which we’ll allow 11-12 percent. A great tool to find bargains is our DFS projection system, which gives a dollar per fantasy point projection for each player. I refer to it often!
For Week 5, I’m excluding players from games that could potentially be impacted by COVID-19 (as things stand 10/7).
Quarterback
Teddy Bridgewater, Carolina Panthers at Atlanta ($5900 DK, $7100 FD, $25 Yahoo)
Bridgewater gets a fantastic QB matchup this week – best in the league – in addition to a bargain salary. He’s one of my favorite QB plays regardless of price. This game has a 55-point over/under with a narrow spread. Bridgewater ranks sixth in passing yards and third in completion percentage. We know he doesn’t throw a ton of deep balls, but he can definitely be successful absent that part of the game. He rushed in a score in Week 4, in addition to throwing two touchdown passes, so the TD regression has already started to come. This matchup, with Atlanta allowing a league-high 3.2 passing touchdowns per game, should keep it coming! [[ad:athena]]
Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore ($6000 DK, $7300 FD, $27 Yahoo)
I view Burrow as a more contrarian cheap pivot from Bridgewater, because he is a bit more expensive and not in nearly as good a matchup. However, Baltimore hasn’t been that bad; they’re currently giving up the ninth-most fantasy points to opposing QBs. Burrow is second only to Dak Prescott in terms of attempts (44.2 per game). That high volume coupled with the emergence of Tee Higgins to complement Tyler Boyd and provide another end zone presence should be good for Burrow. Given the sizeable underdog status of the Bengals, we can anticipate another pass-heavy game plan from Burrow.
Running Back
D’Ernest Johnson, Cleveland Browns vs. Indianapolis ($4700 DK, $5300 FD, $10 Yahoo)
You know the stats: 13 rushes for 95 yards against Dallas after Nick Chubb left the game. Looking like a man ready to make the most of his opportunity, Johnson should be ahead of Dontrell Hilliard in the Browns backfield pecking order. Part of his appeal despite my strong feelings for Kareem Hunt is just how committed to running the ball the Browns are. See Baker Mayfield’s numbers against one of the easiest passing matchups, a game where the team scored 49 points. The Colts are a tough matchup, but Johnson is cheap enough, and with decent volume, shifty enough to make an impact in the box score. Note that he should be less of a priority on PPR sites, as he is likely to be a non-factor in the pass game.
Devonta Freeman, New York Giants at Dallas ($4600 DK, $5500 FD, $10 Yahoo)
Freeman worked as the Giants’ clear lead back in Week 4 vs. the Rams, and wasn’t overly impressive. Let’s be honest, nothing about the Giants is overly impressive right now (though their defense did make some nice plays (and see below)). What we have here is a high scoring game, against a Cowboys’ defense that isn’t stopping anybody or anything, having allowed THE MOST points in the league to this point. I am willing to risk this small amount of salary cap that Freeman can at least mimic D’Ernest Johnson’s performance from a week ago. Given that Freeman caught all four of his targets from Daniel Jones last week, maybe he could see a few more?
Also consider: Brian Hill, Chase Edmonds
Wide Receiver
Laviska Shenault Jr., Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston ($4500 DK, $5300 FD, $16 Yahoo)
One of the games that keeps falling off my radar is this one. With a 54.5-point total, it has fantasy potential. Although both running backs in this game should be fairly popular given the on-paper matchups, I think Gardner Minshew might be forced to air it out a bit too. Shenault has competition for targets (and of course the pricey D.J. Chark is top dog), but if he keeps playing the way he has, he will be the team’s WR2 in no time. This looks like a great week to run him out in tournaments with defensive attention likely focused on Chark and Shenault still very affordable.
Zach Pascal, Indianapolis Colts at Cleveland ($4600 DK, $5300 FD, $14 Yahoo)
Dallas’ top two wide receivers accounted for over 200 yards and three touchdowns vs. Cleveland last week. I’m in no way suggesting that Philip Rivers can impersonate Dak Prescott, but Pascal has out-targeted T.Y. Hilton the past two weeks. He’s also the only Colts’ wide receiver to catch the rare Rivers’ touchdown pass. My enthusiasm over Pascal is in check due to my distrust of Rivers, but the salary, matchup, and WR1 status combine to earn him the spot here.
Also consider: Tee Higgins, Brandon Aiyuk
Tight End
Eric Ebron, Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Philadelphia ($4000 DK, $5100 FD, $14 Yahoo)
To be honest, with Tyler Higbee, Mark Andrews, George Kittle and (probably) Travis Kelce all on the slate, it’s going to be easy to spend up on TE. If you don’t want to go there, Ebron is the most intriguing option I’m finding in the bargain bin. The Steelers are touchdown favorites at home, coming off an unexpected BYE, and facing an Eagles team that has given up five touchdowns to opposing TEs, while allowing them the third-most fantasy points. This is complicated by the fact that Pittsburgh should have four solid wide receivers available this Sunday. However, Ben Roethlisberger has a history with tight ends similar to Ebron, and they connected in the red zone for a score in Week 3.
Defense
New York Giants at Dallas ($2200 DK, $3200 FD, $12 Yahoo)
Obviously, this doesn’t work if you’re stacking the Cowboys as some DFS players surely will. But in other lineups, saving big with the Giants at D/ST creates some nice upside. I really did see some impressive stops from this unit in Week 4. They prevented Malcolm Brown and Darrell Henderson from scoring on five red zone attempts (though Gerald Everett was able to punch it in from the two-yard line). Here’s another thing: Dallas is tied for first in the league – with Philadelphia—with nine turnovers. This isn’t a low points play; this is an upside on turnovers play.
