This article lays out my favorite ways to take advantage of positional correlations in DFS scoring through stacking. Factors that go into this strategy include the implied team total, the talent of the players, the opposing defense (especially any funneling tendencies), and the likely popularity of the players.
Safe Stacks
New Orleans Saints vs. Minnesota: Drew Brees, Alvin Kamara, Michael Thomas, Jared Cook
This Wild Card weekend slate is a pretty obvious one. The Saints are by far the biggest favorite and the team with the highest implied total. They make the most sense as a safe stack for any lineup. The drawback is their high projected ownership. Should the Vikings Defense come to play, not stacking Saints may pay off in tournaments. However, in cash games, I think three of these four is a smart move. Brees has been great at home, including a five-touchdown, 40-plus fantasy point game vs. the 49ers. So I’m not too worried about the matchup... Michael Thomas finished the regular season with an 80 percent catch rate while leading all WRs in yardage by a mile. He, too, was much better at home, averaging 30 PPR fantasy points in New Orleans. There is no safer receiver on the slate or in the game. Kamara came on strong the past two weeks, rushing in four of his five touchdowns (all scored on the road) in Carolina and Tennessee. His volume still isn’t elite, but I expect the most valuable touches will go to him. There are really only two trustworthy tight ends on the slate, and Cook is one of them. That’s why I say three of four – you could go the other way at tight end and fade Cook or use Cook as a passing game asset while choosing your RBs from other teams.
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Seattle Seahawks at Philadelphia: Russell Wilson, Tyler Lockett, D.K. Metcalf, Travis Homer
Talent-wise, this is a safe stack. Looking at wins and losses, this is a safe stack. The Seahawks are the only road favorite this weekend. Wilson is an MVP candidate and Homer looked like the real deal in Week 17. The glitch is that Wilson hasn’t been great on the road this year, and one of his worst games of the season came in Philadelphia in Week 12. All things considered, I’m not going to let one bad performance from earlier in the season erase months of positivity around this offense. Wilson is the most expensive QB option on DraftKings, which isn’t helpful, but you can save enough with his surrounding skill players to make it work. I don’t think Marshawn Lynch will spoil Homer’s day too much, though the Philly run defense might. They were very good this year, allowing the third-fewest rushing yards, which again makes me think Seattle will try to use the more versatile Homer over Lynch this weekend.
I can never decide between Lockett and Metcalf and the safest thing to do is use both. After a brief spurt, Jacob Hollister has been a really low volume option, as have the other wideouts, Josh Gordon, Malik Turner and David Moore. I think we can count on Lockett and Metcalf both being heavily targeted in this game, where the best chance to win is going to be through the air.
Contrarian Stacks
Philadelphia Eagles vs. Seattle: Carson Wentz, Zach Ertz, Miles Sanders, Greg Ward
Seattle enters Wild Card weekend as the worst defense, allowing more points per game than any other team playing. In fact, they ranked 27th against the pass and 22nd against the run. They allowed the second-most fantasy points to tight ends, and the pending return of Ertz benefits not only him, but Wentz. Wentz has been very steady the past few weeks, ending the season with five games between 17-25 fantasy points. He’s gone four games without an interception, but he did lose two fumbles in that span. The receiving corps is a bit thin, but Greg Ward has been solid, with a 81 percent catch rate in the last three games. Sanders needs to practice Friday, but all reports sound like the team is being extra cautious and that his ankle sprain is mild. The Eagles have tended to run with the hot hand, so hedging a bit with Boston Scott if Sanders seems limited at all will be a smart move.
Buffalo Bills at Houston: Josh Allen, Devin Singletary, John Brown, Dawson Knox
Houston is very nearly the worst offense of the round, and definitely has been the best for fantasy. The Texans allow the second-most fantasy points to QBs, sixth-most to running backs, and fall in the Top 12 to WR and TE. The Bills are small underdogs on the road, and to win this game will need to rely on more than their defense. They will have to have some big offensive drives. I think Knox is one under-utilized path to maintaining drives that Buffalo will perhaps focus on this week. The shift from a Frank Gore-heavy game plan to a Singletary one is complete, as Singletary had at least 14 carries in each of the last six games. He’s proven effective in the pass game also, but like Knox, isn’t asked to do much there. He could be a real game changer if that script changes. Allen is somewhat preferable on FanDuel, where he is not only cheaper, but where you aren’t thinking about the QB 300-yard passing bonus, which he’s not likely to get. Still, his ability to score on his feet is valuable anywhere, and I expect to see at least one of those this Saturday.
Mini Stack
Deshaun Watson and DeAndre Hopkins
Watson finished the season strong at home, ultimately averaging about 25 fantasy points per game in Houston. These two are the key to a Texans victory, even though on paper it’s easier to run on the Bills, if these two are locked in, they are virtually indefensible. Hopkins is a really nice discount from Thomas on DraftKings, where Watson is also the fourth-most expensive QB (he’s second on FanDuel), so the mini-stack works a bit better there. You can also easily fit Carlos Hyde on DK; this could be a nice spot for him. On FanDuel however, there are three cheaper backs I’d rather have.
