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Quarterback
Chalk
Mahomes currently ranks second in EPA per dropback and that efficiency has been maximized with an absurd pass rate. Kansas City has thrown the ball on 65 percent of their plays. They lead the NFL in pass rate over expected.
With Josh Allen likely out this week, Mahomes leads all main slate quarterbacks in DraftKings points per game. If playing him, I’d look to add a unique piece to stacks like Marquez Valdes-Scantling or even Kadarius Toney.
Fields is coming off a week that saw him set the rushing record (176) for a quarterback. He also set the record for rushing first downs earned by a quarterback (12). The Bears get a Detroit defense that has been one of the worst in the league at containing mobile quarterbacks.
justin fields leads the entire league in total EPA added by scrambling this season
— Tej Seth (@tejfbanalytics) November 11, 2022
the detroit lions defense have allowed the most total EPA from opposing quarterbacks scrambling in the league this season... pic.twitter.com/2DPvmmMfO6
Pivots
Fields is a better runner than Jones, but DFS players are going to roster him up to twice as often as Jones. New York’s mobile passer ranks fourth in rush attempts and yards among quarterbacks. Jones is a long-shot to beat Fields, but he has a chance and will also be leverage off a popular teamate in New York’s backfield.
What could go wrong when playing a backup quarterback under a coach with no NFL or college experience making his debut? The good news is that Ehlinger is also a runner. He has scrambled on 10 percent of dropbacks in his two starts. He also faces a secondary that has overtaken the Lions for dead last in EPA per dropback allowed.
Running Back
Chalk
The Texans rank 29th in EPA per rush attempt allowed and their opponents have consistently picked on this weakness. Houston has faced the lowest pass rate over expected this year. They are allowing the most DraftKings points to opposing running backs by a three-point margin.
Over the past five weeks, Kamara ranks second among all running backs in expected fantasy points. Since Week 5, he trails only Christian McCaffrey in target share. Kamara is still underpriced on Fanduel and DraftKings.
Pivots
In his first game back from a rib injury, Conner played on 72 percent of Arizona’s offensive snaps and ran a route on 66 percent of Kyler Murray‘s dropbacks. He earned a 15 percent target share. Back in a three-down role, Conner will be underpriced and unpopular on Sunday.
The Bears’ backfield reverted to its Montgomery-centric roots in Week 9. He played on 71 percent of their snaps and doubled up Khalil Herbert in carries. Per usual, he also led the backfield in targets and routes.
Fields will be the popular way to attack Detroit’s horrific defense, but, as a three-point favorite, Montgomery has a strong shot at stealing the spotlight.
Wide Receiver
Chalk
Nearly every pass-catcher in this game is going to see inflated ownership. The total is the highest of the week and members of the Jaguars are all underpriced based on the projected volume for their team.
If playing Jags, I would consider pivoting from Kirk to one of the Jones’s. All three of the receivers have logged a target share between 19 and 21 percent since Week 5. Marvin Jones leads the Jags in air yards over that span despite missing one game.
JuJu has rebounded from a slow start in a major way. He has at least 18 points in three consecutive weeks. Both of his 100-yard games and both of his scores have come in the past three weeks. JuJu has stepped up as the top receiver for the Chiefs and will draw the appropriate ownership for that role.
Pivots
Reports have already surfaced that the Steelers want to get Pickens more involved in the offense following the trade of Chase Claypool. Moving on from Claypool leaves behind roughly a fifth of the team’s air yards and targets. He gets a Saints defense that ranks 22nd in EPA per dropback and is still missing Marshon Lattimore this week.
It looks as though I have written myself into a Pittsburgh/New Orleans secondary stack. It’s not a particualry enticing game according to Vegas, but both defenses are more than capable of giving up points.
The Steelers are even worse in coverage, ranking 27th in EPA per dropback. Pittsburgh has allowed the most fantasy points to opposing receivers and Olave’s air yards share sits above 40 percent with Andy Dalton under center.
Tight End
Chalk
Kelce has scored at least 20 points in over half of his appearances this year. He leads the highest team total squad in targets and is the only pay-up option on the slate.
Since making his debut in Week 6, Dulcich has earned an 18 percent target share and 23 percent of Denver’s air yards. With KJ Hamler out, his 13.2 target depth leads the team’s active pass-catchers. He’s the strongest cheap option available.
Pivots
Engram may draw some ownership based on the game he plays in, but I still have Dulcich as a more popular tight end. That makes Engram one of the few ways to attack the Kansas City/Jacksonville game in a unique way. Since Week 5, Engram has a 19 percent target share and leads the Jags in end zone targets.
Hockenson was not eased into the lineup for his first game with the Vikings. Instead, he played on 91 percent of Minnesota’s offensive snaps and was targeted nine times. With Adam Thielen falling off, Hockenson might be the second receiver for the Vikings.
