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The Fantasy Usage Model: Week 6

Jamison Crowder

Jamison Crowder

Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports

“The Fantasy Usage Model” simply is how many PPR fantasy points an average NFL player in an average NFL offense would’ve scored with the same exact opportunity. Read Targets Aren’t Created Equal and Carries Aren’t Created Equal if you want to see the type of variables that go into this model, but think air yards, relation to the sideline, yards from the end zone, and scheme indicator metrics. It’s a “Buy Low Model” (shoutout to the great Josh Hermsmeyer). To make things better, I manually clean the data each week with things I can adjust for that a computer wouldn’t know about (ie. removing early-injury games) because the data is only as good as the context that comes with it. If you scroll down, you’ll see raw air yards, team share data, and RB touches while leading/trailing. This is basically all of the data I use to make my sit/start decisions. If you have questions, reach out to me on Twitter (@HaydenWinks). CTRL + F to search for players on desktop. Rotate if on mobile. [[ad:athena]]


Top 5 Rebound Candidates of Week 6

  1. Clyde Edwards-Helaire (@ BUF)
  2. Julian Edelman (vs. DEN)
  3. Tee Higgins (@ IND)
  4. T.Y. Hilton (vs. CIN)
  5. James Robinson (vs. DET)


Fantasy Usage Model - WRs

Average fantasy usage and PPR data from Weeks 2-5. I’ve removed injuries and noted other adjustments.

Player

Fantasy Usage

Actual PPR P/G

Context

Allen Robinson

WR1 (19.9)

WR9 (19.2)

11.4 targets P/G (2nd). 1st in Week 5 xFPs.

Calvin Ridley

WR2 (17.7)

WR20 (17.1)

158 air yards P/G (1st) + 10 targets P/G.

Keenan Allen

WR3 (17.6)

WR12 (18.5)

Removed Week 5 (back).

Diontae Johnson

WR4 (17.0)

WR17 (17.5)

Only includes Weeks 1-2. Injured in others.

Robby Anderson

WR5 (16.7)

WR21 (17.0)

Target shares: RA (26%), DJM (21%).

Adam Thielen

WR6 (16.5)

WR13 (18.5)

Stud + 1st in air yards share (46%). WR1.

Amari Cooper

WR7 (16.5)

WR19 (17.3)

CB Bradberry handled him. WR1 still.

Jamison Crowder

WR8 (15.8)

WR3 (21.5)

Y’all gunna respect him yet? 17.1 xFPs P/G.

Terry McLaurin

WR9 (15.6)

WR24 (16.4)

44% air yards share (2nd). Volatile WR2.

CeeDee Lamb

WR10 (15.5)

WR11 (18.7)

Slot God as emerging star WR2. Beast.

Stefon Diggs

WR11 (15.2)

WR4 (20.6)

Doesn’t include Tuesday Night Football.

DeAndre Hopkins

WR12 (15.2)

WR6 (20.2)

Elite ball skills on 10.6 targets P/G.

Tyler Boyd

WR13 (14.9)

WR23 (16.8)

WR2 usage on team that’s 5th in air yards.

Odell Beckham

WR14 (14.9)

WR10 (19.1)

25% target share & 101 air yards P/G. WR2.

DK Metcalf

WR15 (14.7)

WR5 (20.5)

Machine on 131 air yards P/G (2nd).

N’Keal Harry

WR16 (14.6)

WR52 (10.6)

WR2 usage, but slow feet don’t eat. WR5.

Mike Evans

WR17 (14.4)

WR7 (19.5)

Reliant on TDs with injuries. Upside WR1/2.

Kenny Golladay

WR18 (14.3)

WR21 (17.0)

7.5 targets and 84 air yards P/G. WR2.

Travis Fulgham

WR19 (14.3)

WR1 (22.5)

6'3/215 ex-6th rounder. 77% routes Wk 5.

Tyreek Hill

WR20 (14.1)

WR8 (19.4)

Efficiency outlier (10.4 YPT). Volatile WR1.

Julian Edelman

WR21 (13.9)

WR39 (12.2)

Lays on the ground longer than all. WR3.

Tyler Lockett

WR22 (13.8)

WR15 (17.8)

Similar targets as DK, far lower aDOT (9.6).

A.J. Green

WR23 (13.7)

WR97 (5.3)

Visibly slow. Now injured as No. 3 WR.

Emmanuel Sanders

WR24 (13.6)

WR29 (14.5)

MT limits ceiling but comfy in offense now.

Darius Slayton

WR25 (13.6)

WR49 (10.8)

Has had WR3 usage without Shepard.

Chris Godwin

WR26 (13.5)

WR18 (17.4)

WR2/3 usage before injuries. Iffy for Wk 6.

Tee Higgins

WR27 (13.4)

WR35 (12.7)

Better than AJG, who is injured. WR3/4.

Marquise Brown

WR28 (13.2)

WR47 (11.2)

42% of targets 20+ air yards (1st). Volatile.

Will Fuller

WR29 (12.6)

WR14 (18.0)

18.3 PPR P/G in 4 healthy games. WR2.

Deebo Samuel

WR30 (12.5)

WR105 (4.2)

Removed Week 4. Up to 12.5 xFP Week 5.

Cooper Kupp

WR31 (12.3)

WR16 (17.5)

Rams 31st in air yards P/G. WR2/3.

Chase Claypool

WR32 (12.2)

WR2 (21.6)

Highest-upside PIT WR. Rare athlete. WR4.

Russell Gage

WR33 (11.4)

WR74 (8.1)

xFPs: Weeks 1-2 (18.4), Weeks 3-4 (8.7).

Jerry Jeudy

WR34 (11.3)

WR43 (11.6)

20% target share to climb if healthy. WR4.

Cole Beasley

WR35 (11.3)

WR33 (13.4)

Doesn’t include Tuesday Night Football.

D.J. Moore

WR36 (11.2)

WR31 (14.2)

10.3 YPT hiding WR3 usage as No. 2 WR.

DeVante Parker

WR37 (11.0)

WR25 (15.6)

Career-high 10.3 YPT. Streaky WR3 usage.

Brandin Cooks

WR38 (11.0)

WR36 (12.5)

Increased play-action helped Cooks. WR4.

Adam Humphries

WR39 (10.9)

WR40 (12.0)

Caught the rona. Brown returns. Avoid.

Brandon Aiyuk

WR40 (10.9)

WR44 (11.6)

10.4 xFPs P/G with Kittle, Deebo. WR5.

Damiere Byrd

WR41 (10.9)

WR52 (10.6)

More blocking for Byrd when Cam returns.

Marquez Valdes-Scantling

WR42 (10.9)

WR90 (6.5)

17.2 aDOT as big-play, no-floor WR5.

Laviska Shenault

WR43 (10.8)

WR41 (11.9)

xFPs up in 5-straight games. Upside WR4.

D.J. Chark

WR44 (10.7)

WR26 (15.5)

Injuries to blame, but WR4/5 usage.

Robert Woods

WR45 (10.6)

WR27 (14.9)

9.7 YPT saving WR2/3 value. WR4 usage.

Sammy Watkins

WR46 (10.5)

WR75 (7.9)

Off to hot Week 5 start until hammy.

Greg Ward

WR47 (10.3)

WR54 (10.6)

xFPs: With DeSean (5.7), without 13.2.

KJ Hamler

WR48 (10.2)

WR84 (7.3)

Volatile WR5 if hamstring cooperates.

Keelan Cole

WR49 (10.1)

WR46 (11.4)

Low-upside slot with WR5/6 usage.

JuJu Smith-Schuster

WR50 (9.7)

WR48 (11.0)

Career-low aDOT (5.0) zapped upside.

T.Y. Hilton

WR51 (9.7)

WR72 (8.2)

Inefficient (7.2 YPT) on 20% target share.

Isaiah Ford

WR52 (9.7)

WR76 (7.8)

Low-aDOT slot receiver.

Michael Gallup

WR53 (9.7)

WR37 (12.5)

93% sideline targets + 16.9 aDOT. Volatile.

Chris Conley

WR54 (9.6)

WR78 (7.6)

Fewer Wk 5 routes than Collin Johnson.

Tim Patrick

WR55 (9.5)

WR32 (14.0)

No-floor WR5 (13.6 aDOT) without KJ.

Tyler Johnson

WR56 (9.5)

WR57 (10.1)

82% Week 5 routes. Deserves No. 3 job.

Golden Tate

WR57 (9.2)

WR67 (8.6)

Off the radar when Shepard returns.

DeSean Jackson

WR58 (9.2)

WR77 (7.8)

Was bad even when healthy. Unreliable.

Christian Kirk

WR59 (9.2)

WR55 (10.6)

Sub-11.0 xFPs in all 4 healthy games. Bad?

John Brown

WR60 (9.2)

WR34 (13.2)

Doesn’t include Tuesday Night Football.

Tre’Quan Smith

WR61 (9.1)

WR45 (11.5)

WR5 usage without MT. Droppable.

Corey Davis

WR62 (9.0)

WR38 (12.3)

Caught the rona. Brown returns. Avoid.

Justin Jefferson

WR63 (9.0)

WR30 (14.4)

14.8 YPT but WR4/5 usage as No. 2 WR.

Jarvis Landry

WR64 (8.9)

WR62 (9.5)

18% target share on team 29th in PaAtt.

Zach Pascal

WR65 (8.9)

WR86 (7.2)

Every-down WR but 13% target share.

Hunter Renfrow

WR66 (8.8)

WR51 (10.8)

Not playing in 2-TE sets with Ruggs back.

Randall Cobb

WR67 (8.8)

WR42 (11.7)

Between 6.4-9.3 xFPs in all 5 games.

Chris Hogan

WR68 (8.7)

WR92 (6.2)

Step 1: Run without ball, Step 2: Repeat.

Kendrick Bourne

WR69 (8.6)

WR61 (9.6)

No. 3 in 3-WR sets. Off the 12-team radar.

Curtis Samuel

WR70 (8.5)

WR68 (8.6)

Only enough room for 2 WRs in CAR.

Darnell Mooney

WR71 (8.5)

WR80 (7.5)

Far more routes, tad more usage than AM.

Jeff Smith

WR72 (8.3)

WR98 (5.1)

Usage will drop after 23 yds on 11 targets.

James Washington

WR73 (8.2)

WR91 (6.4)

Should be the No. 4 when Diontae returns.

Preston Williams

WR74 (7.9)

WR66 (8.9)

Big-play threat (14.3 aDOT). Volatile WR5.

Olamide Zaccheaus

WR75 (7.8)

WR83 (7.3)

Played every single Week 5 route. Busted.

Cedrick Wilson

WR76 (7.8)

WR58 (10.1)

Averaging 10.3 xFPs in last 3 as No. 4 WR.

Anthony Miller

WR77 (7.7)

WR71 (8.3)

It’s A-Rob and everyone else in Chicago.

Danny Amendola

WR78 (7.6)

WR103 (4.9)

xFPs: With Kenny (10.7), without (6.2).

Larry Fitzgerald

WR79 (7.4)

WR96 (5.7)

Andy Isabella should sue ARI to start.

Braxton Berrios

WR80 (7.3)

WR65 (8.9)

Clearly not a thing.

Justin Watson

WR81 (7.2)

WR82 (7.4)

Injured. Not as good as Tyler Johnson.

Henry Ruggs

WR82 (6.8)

WR28 (14.7)

Includes Week 1 & 5, 62% routes in return.

Isaiah Wright

WR83 (6.8)

WR99 (5.1)

Clearly not a thing.

Dontrelle Inman

WR84 (6.7)

WR79 (7.6)

Clearly not a thing.

Marvin Jones

WR85 (6.5)

WR81 (7.4)

xFPs: With Kenny (12.3), without (4.2).

Mecole Hardman

WR86 (6.3)

WR50 (10.8)

Sammy hammy makes MH a 3-WR starter.

Scotty Miller

WR87 (6.2)

WR69 (8.5)

Big-play threat but no floor, as seen Wk 5.

Note: I accidentally left Mike Williams off the table. He has WR50 fantasy usage and WR27 production. My note: “Herbert can actually hit MW downfield. WR3.”


Fantasy Usage Model - TEs

Average fantasy usage and PPR data from Weeks 2-5. I’ve removed injuries and noted other adjustments.

Player

Fantasy Usage

Actual PPR P/G

Context

George Kittle

TE1 (19.5)

TE1 (24.3)

Elite TE tier: Kelce, Kittle, Waller, Andrews.

Darren Waller

TE2 (18.0)

TE5 (16.2)

Leading TEs in targets (9.2 P/G). Top-4 TE.

Travis Kelce

TE3 (16.7)

TE3 (18.4)

2nd in targets and air yards per game. Stud.

Jonnu Smith

TE4 (12.7)

TE4 (17.8)

Doesn’t include Tuesday Night Football.

Mike Gesicki

TE5 (12.3)

TE6 (13.3)

3rd in air yards among TEs. Streaky TE1.

Noah Fant

TE6 (11.8)

TE10 (11.3)

19% target share + elite traits. TE1 if healthy.

Zach Ertz

TE7 (11.5)

TE23 (7.4)

Glorified old-Witten on low-end TE1 usage.

Dalton Schultz

TE8 (11.3)

TE7 (12.9)

TE1/2 but DAL unlikely to pass this much.

Mark Andrews

TE9 (11.1)

TE8 (11.9)

Leading TEs in air yards. 10-TD ceiling.

Austin Hooper

TE10 (10.7)

TE19 (8.7)

Increasing usage as emerging TE1/2.

Tyler Eifert

TE11 (10.6)

TE32 (6.1)

Inefficient (4.0 YPT), old TE with TE2 usage.

Evan Engram

TE12 (10.6)

TE17 (9.2)

3rd in TE routes, but inefficient in horrid O.

Jimmy Graham

TE13 (10.3)

TE9 (11.6)

Reliant on volatile but high-value RZ looks.

Logan Thomas

TE14 (10.2)

TE47 (4.2)

Awful. Last in YPRR. At least 4th in routes.

Hayden Hurst

TE15 (10.1)

TE16 (9.3)

5th in TE routes & TE1/2 usage. Hold I guess.

Eric Ebron

TE16 (10.0)

TE11 (10.9)

TE1/2 usage in above-average offense.

Hunter Henry

TE17 (9.9)

TE13 (10.6)

Usage comes and goes, but TE1 overall.

Robert Tonyan

TE18 (9.5)

TE2 (20.1)

9.5 xFPs without Adams. TD upside. TE1/2.

T.J. Hockenson

TE19 (9.4)

TE15 (9.5)

TE2 usage but upside player as TE1/2.

Trey Burton

TE20 (9.2)

TE35 (6.0)

Week 5 routes: TB (19), JD (18), MAC (10).

Drew Sample

TE21 (8.8)

TE32 (6.1)

4.8 aDOT & 9% target share. Low ceiling.

Rob Gronkowski

TE22 (8.0)

TE36 (5.7)

Moves like a HS coach teaching a new drill.

Jared Cook

TE23 (7.1)

TE18 (8.9)

High-end TE2 usage without MT in lineup.

Greg Olsen

TE24 (7.0)

TE37 (5.7)

TD-dependent TE2 on TE3 usage.

Mo Alie-Cox

TE25 (6.6)

TE14 (9.6)

The best Indy TE, but seeing fewest routes.

Tyler Kroft

TE26 (6.4)

TE28 (6.9)

Elevated by 14.2 xFP game without Knox.

Jordan Akins

TE27 (6.2)

TE20 (8.3)

No-floor TD-dependent TE2 on TE3 usage.

Tyler Higbee

TE28 (6.0)

TE12 (10.7)

6th in YPRR, but 26th in TE routes. TE1/2.

Chris Herndon

TE29 (6.0)

TE58 (3.3)

42% routes in Week 5. Not happening.

Dawson Knox

TE30 (5.9)

TE48 (4.2)

Doesn’t include Tuesday Night Football.


Fantasy Usage Model - RBs

Average fantasy usage and PPR data from Weeks 2-5. I’ve removed injuries and noted other adjustments.

Player

Fantasy Usage

Actual PPR P/G

Context

Ezekiel Elliott

RB1 (25.2)

RB5 (21.5)

At least 19.1 xFPs in all 5 games. Top-3 RB.

Alvin Kamara

RB2 (24.2)

RB1 (31.0)

At least 18.9 xFPs in all 5 games. Elite RB1.

Aaron Jones

RB3 (24.0)

RB2 (28.1)

20+ xFPs in all 4 games. Ignore snaps.

Mike Davis

RB4 (23.3)

RB4 (22.7)

Broken tackles leader in CMC role. RB1.

Derrick Henry

RB5 (22.2)

RB11 (17.7)

Doesn’t include Tuesday Night Football.

Joe Mixon

RB6 (20.6)

RB8 (19.4)

Better while leading but targets are up. RB1.

Myles Gaskin

RB7 (20.2)

RB21 (14.5)

Increasing usage. JH was healthy scratched.

James Conner

RB8 (19.5)

RB6 (20.1)

Low-end RB1 usage & production. Bellcow.

Miles Sanders

RB9 (19.2)

RB12 (17.6)

Bad vision but big-play threat. RB1 usage.

Clyde Edwards-Helaire

RB10 (18.2)

RB27 (13.6)

Underperforming RB1 usage. TDs coming.

Josh Jacobs

RB11 (17.8)

RB22 (14.4)

21.2 carries but only 3.0 receptions P/G.

Ronald Jones

RB12 (17.5)

RB28 (13.6)

xFPs: With Fournette (13.6), without (22.1).

Dalvin Cook

RB13 (17.1)

RB3 (22.9)

Averaging 16.5 xFPs P/G. Iffy for Week 6.

Rex Burkhead

RB14 (16.8)

RB15 (16.6)

xFPs from 19.9 P/G to 14.5 with Harris.

Chris Carson

RB15 (16.6)

RB10 (18.8)

Catches up 1.7 from 2019. Low-end RB1.

Darrell Henderson

RB16 (16.5)

RB16 (16.4)

Can’t trust but RB2 usage as a pure runner.

Melvin Gordon

RB17 (16.4)

RB14 (16.7)

RB2 value to take a hit with Lindsay back.

Devin Singletary

RB18 (16.3)

RB20 (14.8)

Doesn’t include Tuesday Night Football.

James Robinson

RB19 (15.8)

RB7 (19.7)

11-17 carries P/G + 4.5 receptions in losses.

Kareem Hunt

RB20 (15.7)

RB9 (19.0)

Week 5 touches thru 3 QTs: KH (17), DJ (2). Elite RB1.

Jonathan Taylor

RB21 (15.1)

RB24 (14.1)

Upside capped by 1-2 receptions per game.

Todd Gurley

RB22 (14.8)

RB17 (16.4)

Between 13.4-16.2 xFPs in last 4. RB2.

Kenyan Drake

RB23 (14.6)

RB35 (9.3)

Slow on tape + 1.2 receptions P/G = RB2/3.

David Montgomery

RB24 (14.5)

RB23 (14.2)

xFPs: With Cohen (11.4), without (15.8).

Devonta Freeman

RB25 (14.5)

RB26 (13.8)

RB2/3 usage in bad offense. Needs leads.

James White

RB26 (14.5)

RB29 (12.9)

Low ceiling. Most reliable receiver. RB3.

David Johnson

RB27 (14.4)

RB31 (10.8)

Duke cutting DJ’s routes, but RB2/3 usage.

Antonio Gibson

RB28 (13.8)

RB19 (15.0)

9-13 carries P/G & increasing targets. RB3.

Leonard Fournette

RB29 (13.1)

RB18 (15.9)

Operated as “closer” before injury. RB3/4.

Jerick McKinnon

RB30 (11.1)

RB25 (13.9)

Week 5 routes: Mostert (14), McKinnon (11).

Joshua Kelley

RB31 (10.8)

RB41 (7.9)

Runs hard but looks slow. Fell behind JJ.

Chase Edmonds

RB32 (10.4)

RB30 (11.2)

Passing-down back & quality insurance RB.

Justin Jackson

RB33 (10.2)

RB36 (9.3)

Week 5 xFPs: Jackson (14.7), Kelley (8.1).

Jamaal Williams

RB34 (10.2)

RB37 (9.2)

Helpful receiver while Adams was out. RB4.

Frank Gore

RB35 (10.1)

RB57 (5.3)

Awful on tape. 4.1 xFPs with Bell back.

Raheem Mostert

RB36 (9.9)

RB13 (16.8)

6.2 YPC since 2017 (1st). Week 5 workhorse.

J.D. McKissic

RB37 (9.6)

RB38 (9.0)

Inefficient but still leading WAS in routes.

Adrian Peterson

RB38 (9.6)

RB43 (7.7)

RB3/4 as pure runner. Needs TDs & leads.

Malcolm Brown

RB39 (9.5)

RB59 (5.2)

RB4 usage as trusted (but bad) veteran.

Nyheim Hines

RB40 (9.3)

RB55 (5.7)

Bad player on RB3/4 usage. Let JT Cook.

Le’Veon Bell

RB41 (8.6)

RB44 (7.7)

Mad about touches. RB3 with RB2 upside.

Mark Ingram

RB42 (8.6)

RB39 (8.8)

RB4 usage and worst RB on Ravens imo.

Alexander Mattison

RB43 (8.3)

RB45 (7.4)

Season-high 17.6 xFPs in Cook relief.

Damien Harris

RB44 (8.1)

RB34 (10.0)

17 carries but all low-value unless goal-line.

D’Andre Swift

RB45 (8.0)

RB33 (10.1)

Best all-around DET RB. Post-bye spike?


Targets By Type

Targets aren’t created equal. Targets in the red zone are worth more. Targets near the sideline are worth less. Deep targets are worth more but are volatile. Shallow targets are worth less but are stable. This table shows these stats, sorted by targets per game in the last four weeks. “Red Zone” are targets per game within 20 yards of the goal-line on the season. “Deep %” is the percentage of targets with 20+ air yards (how far downfield the ball traveled). “Shallow %” is the percentage of targets with 10 or fewer air yards. “Sideline %” is the percentage of targets near the sideline. This last one is the single most underrated stat in fantasy in my opinion.

Player Last 4 RZ Season Sideline % Deep % Shallow %
1. Allen Robinson 12.0 1.0 60% 19% 53%
2. George Kittle 11.5 1.0 54% 4% 82%
3. Keenan Allen 10.8 1.2 82% 12% 59%
4. Amari Cooper 10.3 1.0 78% 11% 75%
5. Jamison Crowder 10.0 0.7 76% 9% 76%
6. Jeff Smith 10.0 1.0 90% 25% 65%
7. Travis Kelce 10.0 1.6 74% 7% 76%
8. Darren Waller 9.8 1.6 74% 2% 81%
9. Robby Anderson 9.8 1.2 81% 15% 66%
10. Terry McLaurin 9.8 0.6 67% 15% 65%
11. Calvin Ridley 9.5 1.6 82% 32% 30%
12. Alvin Kamara 9.3 1.6 78% 7% 91%
13. DeAndre Hopkins 9.3 1.2 89% 11% 74%
14. Adam Thielen 9.0 1.4 93% 23% 50%
15. Tyler Boyd 8.8 0.4 65% 3% 58%
16. Stefon Diggs 8.7 1.3 86% 11% 51%
17. CeeDee Lamb 8.5 0.8 65% 18% 63%
18. Mike Davis 8.3 2.0 85% 0% 100%
19. James White 8.0 0.5 100% 0% 100%
20. Travis Fulgham 8.0 1.0 63% 13% 56%
21. Cooper Kupp 7.8 0.8 58% 6% 78%
22. DK Metcalf 7.8 1.0 82% 33% 46%
23. Darius Slayton 7.8 1.4 73% 13% 55%
24. Emmanuel Sanders 7.8 1.6 72% 3% 61%
25. Mike Evans 7.8 1.2 86% 14% 57%
26. Julian Edelman 7.7 1.0 57% 17% 57%
27. Kenny Golladay 7.5 2.0 67% 7% 47%
28. Marquise Brown 7.5 0.2 53% 42% 44%
29. Tee Higgins 7.5 1.0 77% 27% 43%
30. Tyler Lockett 7.5 1.0 82% 8% 66%
31. Damiere Byrd 7.3 0.0 86% 18% 55%
32. N’Keal Harry 7.3 2.0 79% 0% 71%
33. Odell Beckham 7.3 1.2 69% 21% 46%
34. Tyreek Hill 7.3 1.0 86% 31% 49%
35. Brandin Cooks 7.0 0.2 73% 21% 42%
36. D.J. Moore 7.0 0.2 76% 19% 41%
37. DeVante Parker 7.0 0.2 72% 9% 66%
38. Ezekiel Elliott 7.0 0.4 78% 0% 100%
39. Jordan Reed 7.0 1.3 69% 0% 75%
40. Noah Fant 7.0 1.3 67% 7% 74%
41. Zach Ertz 7.0 0.6 54% 6% 69%
42. Dalton Schultz 6.8 1.0 65% 10% 81%
43. Jerry Jeudy 6.7 0.5 61% 14% 46%
44. J.D. McKissic 6.7 0.5 84% 0% 92%
45. Will Fuller 6.7 1.0 67% 17% 50%
46. Adam Humphries 6.5 1.0 85% 5% 70%
47. Allen Lazard 6.5 0.7 76% 24% 71%
48. DeSean Jackson 6.5 0.0 85% 35% 55%
49. Hunter Henry 6.5 0.6 85% 9% 71%
50. Jonnu Smith 6.5 1.3 70% 5% 65%
51. Marquez Valdes-Scantling 6.3 1.0 92% 40% 48%
52. A.J. Green 6.3 0.4 76% 29% 47%
53. Austin Hooper 6.3 0.4 85% 7% 74%
54. Clyde Edwards-Helaire 6.3 0.4 81% 0% 96%
55. Evan Engram 6.3 0.8 75% 0% 88%
56. Bennie Fowler 6.0 0.0 67% 0% 83%
57. Chase Claypool 6.0 0.5 80% 30% 45%
58. Chris Godwin 6.0 1.5 62% 15% 69%
59. Courtland Sutton 6.0 0.0 67% 50% 17%
60. C.J. Uzomah 6.0 1.0 73% 18% 82%
61. Eric Ebron 6.0 0.5 50% 10% 60%
62. Greg Ward 6.0 0.8 61% 3% 84%
63. Josh Malone 6.0 0.0 100% 0% 67%
64. JuJu Smith-Schuster 6.0 1.0 71% 4% 92%
65. Keelan Cole 6.0 0.4 72% 17% 69%
66. KJ Hamler 6.0 0.5 58% 8% 50%
67. Laviska Shenault 6.0 0.6 75% 7% 68%
68. Logan Thomas 6.0 1.0 53% 9% 72%
69. Tyler Johnson 6.0 0.0 50% 0% 50%
70. Golden Tate 5.8 0.3 57% 0% 74%
71. Hayden Hurst 5.8 0.6 79% 11% 61%
72. Isaiah Ford 5.8 0.4 54% 0% 68%
73. Mark Andrews 5.8 1.6 45% 10% 41%
74. Michael Gallup 5.8 0.2 93% 25% 43%
75. Mike Gesicki 5.8 1.4 61% 14% 50%
76. Miles Sanders 5.8 0.3 83% 9% 91%
77. Robert Woods 5.8 0.6 84% 10% 71%
78. T.Y. Hilton 5.8 0.8 88% 13% 41%
79. Aaron Jones 5.7 2.3 100% 13% 78%
80. Cole Beasley 5.7 1.3 63% 13% 63%
81. Cedrick Wilson 5.7 0.7 76% 18% 71%
82. D.J. Chark 5.7 1.3 75% 15% 60%
83. Rex Burkhead 5.7 1.3 82% 0% 94%
84. Brandon Aiyuk 5.5 1.0 73% 9% 55%
85. Corey Davis 5.5 0.3 74% 0% 58%
86. Chris Hogan 5.5 0.8 100% 12% 65%
87. Darnell Mooney 5.5 0.2 88% 24% 56%
88. Deebo Samuel 5.5 0.0 73% 9% 55%
89. Justin Jefferson 5.5 0.2 80% 20% 48%
90. Jarvis Landry 5.5 0.2 71% 14% 61%
91. Trey Burton 5.5 0.5 91% 0% 73%
92. Tyler Eifert 5.5 1.2 65% 13% 70%
93. Austin Ekeler 5.3 0.5 82% 0% 94%
94. Christian Kirk 5.3 0.5 100% 38% 48%
95. Diontae Johnson 5.3 0.3 65% 19% 65%
96. James Washington 5.3 0.5 63% 11% 79%
97. Tim Patrick 5.3 0.5 81% 33% 57%
98. Chris Conley 5.3 0.6 77% 23% 64%
99. Hunter Renfrow 5.3 0.8 78% 22% 70%
100. Jimmy Graham 5.3 1.8 82% 7% 71%
101. Joe Mixon 5.3 0.4 83% 0% 96%
102. James Robinson 5.3 0.2 73% 0% 100%
103. Kendrick Bourne 5.3 0.6 73% 8% 62%
104. Myles Gaskin 5.3 0.8 80% 0% 100%
105. Randall Cobb 5.3 0.4 58% 4% 75%
106. Christian Blake 5.0 0.0 80% 0% 20%
107. Christian McCaffrey 5.0 0.0 89% 0% 100%
108. David Montgomery 5.0 0.6 83% 4% 91%
109. Larry Fitzgerald 5.0 0.2 68% 4% 84%
110. Michael Pittman 5.0 0.7 75% 0% 83%
111. Olamide Zaccheaus 5.0 0.3 70% 15% 65%
112. Russell Gage 5.0 1.6 72% 3% 81%
113. Ronald Jones 5.0 0.8 83% 0% 100%
114. Scotty Miller 5.0 0.3 95% 33% 52%
115. Steven Sims 5.0 0.5 75% 25% 50%
116. Sammy Watkins 5.0 1.2 66% 3% 86%
117. T.J. Hockenson 5.0 1.0 75% 0% 65%
118. Tre’Quan Smith 5.0 0.8 57% 5% 67%
119. Danny Amendola 4.7 0.3 67% 10% 57%
120. Devin Singletary 4.7 0.8 95% 5% 90%
121. Robert Tonyan 4.7 1.3 79% 14% 57%
122. Chase Edmonds 4.5 0.8 78% 4% 87%
123. Dallas Goedert 4.5 0.7 50% 11% 72%
124. Justin Watson 4.5 0.0 45% 9% 73%
125. Jamaal Williams 4.5 0.3 77% 8% 92%
126. Zach Pascal 4.5 1.0 67% 19% 52%
127. Chris Thompson 4.3 0.8 87% 0% 93%
128. Jordan Akins 4.3 0.3 67% 7% 80%
129. John Brown 4.3 1.0 78% 22% 57%
130. O.J. Howard 4.3 0.8 84% 21% 58%
131. Anthony Miller 4.3 0.8 65% 17% 39%
132. Braxton Berrios 4.3 0.5 88% 12% 65%
133. Chris Carson 4.3 0.8 91% 0% 91%
134. Dontrelle Inman 4.3 0.4 59% 9% 50%
135. Drew Sample 4.3 1.4 61% 0% 89%
136. Jerick McKinnon 4.3 0.6 86% 14% 86%
137. Rob Gronkowski 4.3 0.6 65% 20% 60%
138. Anthony Firkser 4.0 0.0 67% 0% 67%
139. Deontay Burnett 4.0 1.0 50% 0% 100%
140. Giovani Bernard 4.0 1.0 100% 0% 100%
141. Isaiah Wright 4.0 0.3 92% 8% 83%
142. Justin Jackson 4.0 0.0 75% 0% 100%
143. Julio Jones 4.0 0.3 85% 20% 40%
144. Jalen Reagor 4.0 0.0 50% 25% 38%
145. Jalen Richard 4.0 1.0 62% 0% 100%
146. KeeSean Johnson 4.0 0.0 88% 25% 38%
147. LeSean McCoy 4.0 0.8 62% 0% 92%
148. Melvin Gordon 4.0 0.5 87% 0% 93%
149. Mecole Hardman 4.0 0.2 53% 12% 71%
150. Mike Williams 4.0 0.5 90% 38% 38%
151. Sterling Shepard 4.0 0.5 60% 10% 80%
152. Tanner Hudson 4.0 0.0 25% 50% 50%
153. Tyler Kroft 4.0 2.0 63% 13% 75%


Air Yards & aDOT

Average air yards, sorted by targets per game in the last four weeks. “aDOT” is average depth of target. Minimum 25 air yards per game in the last four weeks.

Player aDOT Season Last 4 Week 5 Games
1. Calvin Ridley 15.8 158 162 132 5
2. DK Metcalf 16.8 131 134 189 5
3. Jeff Smith 12.3 123 123 141 2
4. Marquise Brown 16.8 121 122 141 5
5. Tyreek Hill 15.3 107 122 184 5
6. Adam Thielen 14.1 124 119 125 5
7. Allen Robinson 10.6 121 115 134 5
8. Tee Higgins 14.5 109 109 90 4
9. Terry McLaurin 10.7 99 106 97 5
10. Marquez Valdes-Scantling 17.2 108 101 0 4
11. Darius Slayton 12.6 101 100 145 5
12. Michael Gallup 16.9 94 99 69 5
13. Stefon Diggs 11.0 97 99 0 4
14. Scotty Miller 16.6 87 98 0 4
15. Odell Beckham 13.0 101 97 71 5
16. Amari Cooper 9.1 100 96 22 5
17. D.J. Moore 13.1 97 96 81 5
18. Travis Fulgham 11.8 95 95 139 2
19. Julian Edelman 11.4 86 94 0 4
20. Jamison Crowder 9.0 99 94 72 3
21. A.J. Green 14.6 100 92 18 5
22. Will Fuller 13.4 101 91 119 4
23. Keenan Allen 8.8 90 91 29 5
24. CeeDee Lamb 9.9 79 89 134 5
25. Robby Anderson 9.3 87 88 125 5
26. Christian Kirk 15.7 82 86 96 4
27. Jerry Jeudy 12.7 89 85 0 4
28. Damiere Byrd 11.5 84 84 0 3
29. Tyler Boyd 9.3 74 84 65 5
30. Allen Lazard 12.3 70 84 0 3
31. John Hightower 18.9 71 84 210 4
32. Kenny Golladay 11.1 84 84 0 2
33. Chase Claypool 13.9 69 82 145 4
34. Brandin Cooks 11.3 74 82 122 5
35. Travis Kelce 7.4 68 82 108 5
36. KJ Hamler 13.4 81 81 0 2
37. Justin Jefferson 12.9 64 78 53 5
38. Mike Williams 18.1 95 78 155 4
39. George Kittle 6.4 60 77 44 3
40. Emmanuel Sanders 9.0 65 75 114 5
41. Tim Patrick 13.6 71 74 0 4
42. Mark Andrews 12.3 71 73 96 5
43. D.J. Chark 11.6 58 72 21 4
44. Henry Ruggs 21.5 79 72 92 3
45. Chris Conley 12.9 57 71 54 5
46. T.Y. Hilton 12.2 78 70 111 5
47. Darnell Mooney 12.2 61 70 46 5
48. Tyler Lockett 9.2 70 68 16 5
49. DeAndre Hopkins 7.0 74 67 59 5
50. Mike Evans 9.0 63 67 54 5
51. DeVante Parker 9.6 61 67 45 5
52. DeSean Jackson 17.3 115 66 0 3
53. Mike Gesicki 11.3 63 65 52 5
54. John Brown 12.7 73 63 0 4
55. Adam Humphries 8.2 55 61 0 3
56. Darren Waller 5.7 54 60 40 5
57. Jonnu Smith 6.6 44 60 0 3
58. Jalen Guyton 24.5 49 58 121 5
59. Hunter Renfrow 10.0 46 56 25 5
60. Jarvis Landry 10.7 60 56 111 5
61. Olamide Zaccheaus 10.8 54 54 39 4
62. Hayden Hurst 9.0 51 54 55 5
63. Zach Ertz 7.7 54 53 38 5
64. Preston Williams 14.3 63 53 111 5
65. Keelan Cole 8.2 48 52 109 5
66. Kendrick Bourne 10.2 53 52 21 5
67. Chris Hogan 9.8 51 52 14 5
68. Hunter Henry 8.2 56 51 58 5
69. Anthony Miller 13.6 63 51 21 5
70. Cooper Kupp 6.1 44 51 51 5
71. O.J. Howard 11.9 57 50 0 4
72. Cole Beasley 8.3 50 50 0 4
73. Eric Ebron 9.5 47 50 43 4
74. Diontae Johnson 8.2 53 50 -1 4
75. N’Keal Harry 6.1 43 49 0 4
76. Isaiah Ford 8.1 46 49 23 5
77. Justin Watson 9.6 35 49 0 3
78. Brandon Aiyuk 8.7 48 48 113 4
79. C.J. Uzomah 8.5 47 48 0 2
80. Deebo Samuel 8.5 47 47 79 2
81. Danny Amendola 9.9 52 47 0 4
82. Jared Cook 11.4 52 47 57 4
83. Noah Fant 7.3 49 47 0 4
84. Josh Reynolds 11.8 38 46 54 5
85. Zach Pascal 10.3 43 46 -3 5
86. Zach Pascal 10.3 43 46 -3 5
87. Dalton Schultz 6.4 39 46 10 5
88. Cedrick Wilson 8.1 46 46 -5 3
89. Tyler Eifert 8.0 37 46 48 5
90. David Moore 12.8 36 44 69 5
91. Julio Jones 13.8 92 44 0 3
92. Logan Thomas 7.6 49 43 32 5
93. Braxton Berrios 10.1 43 43 57 4
94. Jimmy Graham 7.4 42 43 67 5
95. Tre’Quan Smith 8.3 35 43 15 5
96. Robert Woods 6.0 37 42 58 5
97. Corey Davis 9.4 60 42 0 3
98. Laviska Shenault 7.3 41 42 40 5
99. Jordan Reed 5.5 29 42 0 3
100. Rob Gronkowski 9.4 38 42 37 5
101. Randall Cobb 7.3 35 41 34 5
102. Andy Isabella 12.6 41 41 31 4
103. Chris Godwin 8.2 54 41 0 2
104. Robert Tonyan 8.8 41 41 0 3
105. Austin Hooper 6.5 35 40 103 5
106. Marvin Jones 9.8 47 39 0 4
107. T.J. Hockenson 6.9 35 39 0 4
108. Kenny Stills 13.0 36 38 5 5
109. Sterling Shepard 7.5 38 38 0 2
110. Sammy Watkins 7.3 42 38 25 5
111. Russell Gage 7.3 47 37 41 5
112. Dan Arnold 9.5 29 36 0 4
113. Miles Boykin 9.8 33 36 22 5
114. Trey Burton 6.4 35 35 31 2
115. Greg Ward 5.6 35 35 30 5
116. Golden Tate 5.9 34 34 38 4
117. Dallas Goedert 6.8 41 33 0 3
118. Greg Olsen 7.8 30 33 15 5
119. James Washington 7.5 36 32 3 4
120. Irv Smith 9.6 27 32 53 4
121. Aaron Jones 4.2 24 31 0 4
122. Demarcus Robinson 9.0 34 31 41 4
123. Mo Alie-Cox 9.2 26 31 18 5
124. Van Jefferson 14.7 37 30 0 4
125. Larry Fitzgerald 5.4 27 30 48 5
126. JuJu Smith-Schuster 5.0 30 29 18 4
127. Dontrelle Inman 8.5 37 29 -5 5
128. Nelson Agholor 12.6 28 29 39 5
129. Evan Engram 4.5 29 28 10 5
130. Michael Pittman 5.3 21 26 0 3
131. David Johnson 5.4 20 25 23 5

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Inside-the-10 Touches & Game-Script Data

Average usage from Weeks 1-5, sorted by inside-the-10 yard-line touches per game. Minimum 7.0 carries per game. “Touch % (Lead)” is a player’s share of team touches while his team is leading. I removed touch shares if a team has fewer than 50 plays in a game script or if a player missed a game.

Player

Inside 10 Touches

Touch % (Lead)

Touch % (Trail)

Carries

Games

Aaron Jones

3.8 (1st)

33%

34%

16.3

4

Derrick Henry

3.7 (2nd)

42%

48%

27.3

3

Christian McCaffrey

3.5 (3rd)

NA

NA

20.5

2

Ezekiel Elliott

3.4 (4)

NA

35%

18.0

5

Cam Newton

3.0 (5)

NA

NA

11.7

3

Mike Davis

3.0 (6)

NA

NA

11.5

4

Zack Moss

3.0 (7)

NA

NA

8.5

2

Darrell Henderson

2.6 (8)

18%

29%

11.6

5

Alvin Kamara

2.4 (9)

33%

35%

12.2

5

James Conner

2.3 (10)

20%

32%

13.8

4

Josh Jacobs

2.2 (11)

59%

34%

21.2

5

Clyde Edwards-Helaire

2.2 (12)

37%

24%

16.2

5

Todd Gurley

2.2 (13)

27%

25%

15.8

5

Kareem Hunt

2.2 (14)

28%

28%

14.0

5

Myles Gaskin

2.2 (15)

40%

23%

12.8

5

Dalvin Cook

1.8 (16)

43%

29%

18.4

5

Kenyan Drake

1.8 (17)

33%

24%

17.0

5

Chris Carson

1.8 (18)

30%

34%

12.2

5

Miles Sanders

1.8 (19)

NA

NA

15.5

4

Jonathan Taylor

1.6 (20)

26%

37%

15.4

5

Ronald Jones

1.6 (21)

26%

30%

14.8

5

Malcolm Brown

1.6 (22)

24%

17%

10.6

5

Rex Burkhead

1.5 (23)

15%

14%

7.5

4

Joshua Kelley

1.4 (24)

29%

15%

12.6

5

Melvin Gordon

1.3 (25)

38%

34%

16.3

4

Nick Chubb

1.3 (26)

NA

NA

14.3

4

Jamaal Williams

1.3 (27)

19%

13%

7.3

4

Antonio Gibson

1.2 (28)

NA

25%

11.0

5

Latavius Murray

1.2 (29)

23%

16%

10.4

5

Alexander Mattison

1.2 (30)

18%

23%

8.8

5

Joe Mixon

1.0 (31)

42%

36%

20.0

5

David Johnson

1.0 (32)

41%

28%

13.6

5

Devin Singletary

1.0 (33)

30%

NA

12.5

4

Saquon Barkley

1.0 (34)

NA

NA

9.5

2

Mark Ingram

1.0 (35)

18%

NA

9.0

5

Jerick McKinnon

1.0 (36)

17%

19%

7.0

5

Phillip Lindsay

1.0 (37)

NA

NA

7.0

1

David Montgomery

0.8 (38)

30%

28%

12.6

5

Kyler Murray

0.8 (39)

13%

13%

8.2

5

Adrian Peterson

0.8 (40)

27%

21%

13.5

4

Devonta Freeman

0.7 (41)

NA

NA

11.0

3

Cam Akers

0.7 (42)

NA

NA

8.7

3

Sony Michel

0.7 (43)

NA

NA

8.7

3

Leonard Fournette

0.7 (44)

NA

NA

8.0

3

James Robinson

0.6 (45)

NA

30%

14.6

5

Benny Snell

0.5 (46)

22%

12%

9.0

4

Tevin Coleman

0.5 (47)

NA

NA

9.0

2

Frank Gore

0.4 (48)

NA

24%

12.8

5

Lamar Jackson

0.4 (49)

12%

NA

8.2

5

Raheem Mostert

0.3 (50)

NA

NA

11.3

3

Austin Ekeler

0.3 (51)

NA

NA

12.3

4

Damien Harris

0.0 (52)

NA

NA

17.0

1

Le’Veon Bell

0.0 (53)

NA

NA

9.5

2

Justin Jackson

0.0 (54)

NA

NA

7.7

3

D’Ernest Johnson

0.0 (55)

NA

NA

7.3

3

Jordan Wilkins

0.0 (56)

NA

NA

7.0

4


Week 5 Garbage Time Eaters

Percentage of a player’s touches that came when @nflfastR’s in-game winning percentage was less than 10% or greater than 90%. This is when backups enter the game, but it’s not always a bad thing. Use your judgement. Minimum 5 touches and 50% “Garbage Rate”.

Player

Garbage Rate

Garbage Touch

Total Touches

Joe Mixon

91%

29

32

George Kittle

88%

7

8

Gus Edwards

80%

8

10

Matt Breida

80%

8

10

Malcolm Brown

80%

8

10

DeAndre Hopkins

71%

5

7

Brandon Aiyuk

67%

4

6

Cam Akers

67%

6

9

D’Ernest Johnson

67%

6

9

Myles Gaskin

67%

14

21

Mike Gesicki

67%

4

6

Tyler Boyd

67%

4

6

Marquise Brown

64%

7

11

Tee Higgins

63%

5

8

Darrel Williams

57%

4

7

Keelan Cole

57%

4

7

Deebo Samuel

56%

5

9

Mark Ingram

55%

6

11

Cooper Kupp

50%

4

8