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What can we learn from the target shares from Week 1-3 after Week 4? Well, quite a bit. We can see which data is sticking and which isn’t. We can look at the shape of those targets, how they came and if perhaps they were lucky or unlucky in some way. At the barest we can simply lay out the target data and say something like “let’s look at Brandin Cooks. He’s been targeted a lot. That will keep happening.” But what I’m more curious about is the game within the game: the red zone targets we all rely on for those pesky touchdowns. This is the area where everyone knows you’re going to your best guy more often than not.
These are the players who have been targeted more often than anyone else in the red zone over the past three weeks. How did it turn out for them in Week 4, and do we feel comfortable forecasting multiple red zone targets per game for them over the rest of the season?
Zach Pascal -- seven red zone targets Weeks 1-3, two red zone targets in Week 4 -- Yes, that’s right, Zach Pascal was second in red zone targets through Week 3. He was first on targets with goal-to-go, with six! And he added another goal-to-go that went backwards here in Week 4 against the Dolphins. [[ad:athena]]
While Pascal was not a touchdown hitter again, the shape of where he is trusted continues to be very fantasy-friendly. The interesting thing about him is that as a long-term asset, a lot of his value is tied to Carson Wentz, who seems to just love Pascal. Pascal had 13 red zone targets for the entirety of the 2020 season. Don’t make him a dynasty buy or anything, because there’s no real reason to believe that he’s going to perform like this without Wentz. But short-term, as Wentz gets healthier, I mean, the AFC South divisional games alone are easy stomping grounds for Pascal to feast. He already has three touchdowns. He could easily wind up close to 10 and retain every-week WR3 status. The double-edged sword with that, of course, is that Wentz can’t be counted on to throw a catchable ball right now.
Cooper Kupp -- seven red zone targets Weeks 1-3, two red zone targets in Week 4 -- Well, I’d hope you’re starting Kupp as an every-week WR1 at this point. But in case for some reason you haven’t -- the connection with Stafford has been scintillating. Kupp was targeted 12 times in the red zone for the entirety of the 2020 season with Jared Goff. He’ll hit that by Week 6 at this pace.
Both of Kupp’s red zone targets against the Cardinals were goal-to-go as well, increasing their value. While the Rams offense faltered a bit for the first time this season, the shape of Kupp’s production is very safe and there’s no reason to disbelieve the early-season hype as the main target for a Sean McVay offense.
Calvin Ridley -- six red zone targets Weeks 1-3, one red zone target in Week 4 -- To be fair, Ridley did have a target thrown to him from the Washington 21, so it was almost two red zone targets per game. Still, it’s quite disappointing to watch Ridley pile up as many air yards as he has and have just one touchdown on the season. If only there were a recent comparison of an Atlanta receiver who was really, really good but never got the ball into the end zone. Sorry, just can’t think of anyone who’d fit the bill.
Now, unlike Julio Jones last season (eight red zone targets over the course of the season), Ridley finished top four in red zone targets last year and nothing in this year’s pace indicates that he’s going to be a guy who sits on one touchdown all season. Well, okay, the Atlanta offensive line is a little scary. But if you’re angry that you bought in on Ridley as a WR1 -- maybe slow your roll on that a little bit. And if you didn’t draft Ridley but know someone who did and is muttering about it, this might be a good time to swoop in with a trade offer.
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Najee Harris -- six red zone targets Weeks 1-3, zero red zone targets in Week 4 -- Of course, it’s hard for Harris to garner red zone targets when the Steelers spent exactly four plays in the red zone all game -- and it’s hard for his managers to be upset about him ending that drive with a rushing touchdown either. Harris is the proverbial back stuck between a rock and a hard place this year -- his offensive line is so bunk that he can barely gain yards on the ground, and his quarterback is so washed up that he’s received two separate fourth-and-long dumpoffs in the first four games of the season.
The great news for Harris is that the Steelers are going to love checking it down this year and have a long and storied recent history of garbage time points, and those are both things that portend great things for his fantasy value regardless of the red zone targets. But it’s also possible the Steelers expand his tree a little here as the season goes on and get Harris going towards the end zone on angle routes. Either way, Harris drafters have to be thrilled with where he’s ended up so far.
Amari Cooper -- six red zone targets Weeks 1-3, zero red zone targets in Week 4 -- This is a weird one after his opener against Tampa, but Cooper appears to mostly be a victim of Dak Prescott spreading the ball around more in general. While there were fewer mouths to feed back then, in Cooper’s last season with a fully healthy Dak Prescott, Cooper captured a 28.6% share of the Cowboys’ air yards. That remains about the same amount he has today: 29.0% through four games. But as Dak has grown more and more this year and looked to distribute the ball more, Cooper’s target totals have dropped since Week 1 and the entire scope of the Dallas offense has benefitted.
I still think this is a long-term good for Cooper, though it is probably a long-term good in the sense that he’ll hover close to where he was drafted this offseason rather than be a huge win. Bigger weeks are ahead. But Prescott’s pre-snap reads have made just about anyone on the Dallas offense playable right now. He’s carrying Dalton Schultz to big production. That comes at a cost: He’s not going to lock on to Cooper as often as he could.
Cole Beasley -- six red zone targets Weeks 1-3, zero red zone targets in Week 4 -- Beasley has played four games and two types of games. In Weeks 2 and 4, the Bills routed opponents with enough precision that they were more focused on running the ball. Beasley disappeared in each of those games, including a two-target disappointment against the Texans. In Weeks 1 and 3, Buffalo’s pass game was humming so much that they used four-wideout sets on 19% of their snaps and let Beasley run amok and cause chaos: 19-of-26 targets caught for 158 yards.
Beasley will score some touchdowns this year, but his red zone target rate was pretty out of line from his 2020 season, where he had just nine targets there in 16 games. Both Emmanuel Sanders and Dawson Knox are bigger threats to the red zone pie, and with Beasley it will be a matter of spotting him in matchups where offense will be free-flowing, like say next week against the Chiefs on Sunday Night Football.
Keenan Allen -- eight red zone targets, still awaiting Week 4 -- Allen, the lone player who didn’t play on Sunday’s slate, is the league leader in red zone targets through Week 3’s action and has been targeted inside the 10 four times. It’s been interesting to see Mike Williams assume more of a role and, to turn a phrase that is happening to the other Los Angeles team, watch Williams become the Kupp to Allen’s Robert Woods in terms of public perception. The underlying data forecasts a very safe role for Allen and, even if Williams just blows up against the Raiders tonight, I think Allen remains a very safe WR2.