It’s the most wonderful time of the year.
No, not Christmas. Well, yes, it’s that time of year too—and that’s lovely or something.
No, it’s the fantasy football playoffs. The regular season has flown by, and with Week 14 already here it’s the postseason in as many leagues as not. That makes every lineup decision all the more important. Every fantasy point all the more critical.
And that most certainly trickles down to the team defenses.
In Week 7, many fantasy managers are essentially willing to take whatever a defense gives them—especially if they spent draft capital on an every-week starter. Trotting out the Baltimore Ravens against the Kansas City Chiefs might not be ideal, but you aren’t going to carry two defenses. And besides—it’s not like a dud week will make or break your season.[[ad:athena]]
In Week 14, that’s exactly what it will do. For most folks from here out, the next loss is the last one. Season’s over. Time to wait for baseball (if you’re into weird sports with round balls) or whatever. And given that every team still playing is a good one, fantasy managers need every point they can get their grubby little mitts on.
I don’t mention this to advocate going full-on matchup-crazy in the fantasy playoffs—although if you want to, have at it. If you have ridden the Pittsburgh Steelers this far, odds are you will be trotting them out in Week 14 as well—even though for reasons I’ll get to in a bit there is cause for at least some concern there.
No, this week’s edition of Getting Defensive is starting this way because far too many fantasy managers get too complacent with defenses—even in the playoffs. And even if you play in a league where defenses only average a handful of points a week, that handful of points could mean the difference between a win and a loss.
Keep your head on a swivel, kids.
THE NO-DOUBTERS
New Orleans Saints (at Philadelphia Eagles)
Drew Brees and the Saints Offense gets all the run, but the New Orleans defense is nothing to sneeze at. Through 13 weeks, the Saints now lead the NFL in total defense, rank fifth against the pass, second against the run and fourth in points allowed. The Saints also rank inside the top-10 in fantasy points and inside the top-five in some scoring systems. This week the Saints will face a reeling Eagles team led by either the player who used to be Carson Wentz or a rookie making his first career start behind an offensive line that has surrendered a mind-blowing 53 sacks over 12 games—almost 4.5 per game.
Los Angeles Rams (vs. New England Patriots)
After watching the Patriots hang 45 points on the Chargers last week at SoFi Stadium, it’s understandable in fantasy managers are a tad uneasy about the Rams Defense in Week 14. But there are a couple of major differences between that game and this one. The biggest is that the Rams have one of the best defenses in the game, while the Chargers um, do not. It’s also rather unlikely that the Pats will score two special teams touchdowns again in Week 14. The Rams are also third in the NFL in run defense, which is going to make things exceedingly difficult for a Patriots team that relies so heavily on the ground game.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (vs. Minnesota Vikings)
There are legitimate reasons to be concerned about the Buccaneers Defense from a fantasy perspective in Week 14. The Vikings are playing light-years better in December than they did in September and October, while the Tampa D hasn’t had a big fantasy stat line since Week 6. But the Buccaneers have had an extra week to get healthy and prepare for a game they desperately have to win, and the Vikings presently sit ninth in fantasy points per game allowed to team defenses this year. This feels like a game where the Buccaneers get right—and the Vikings get exposed.
Indianapolis Colts (at Las Vegas Raiders)
Entering Week 14, the Indianapolis Colts sit sixth in the NFL in total defense, eighth against the pass, sixth against the run and 10th in points allowed. The big play numbers haven’t ben quite that good, but against the Texans a week ago the Colts racked up five sacks, two takeaways and a safety. The Raiders are only a middling fantasy matchup for opposing defenses, but Las Vegas has had some issues protecting Derek Carr this season, and the return of tackle DeForest Buckner made the Indy pass rush markedly better last time out.
Washington Football Team (at San Francisco)
After knocking off the undefeated Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 13, a lot more people are taking notice of the Washington Football Team and their stacked defensive line, but the Washington Defense has been quietly solid most of the 2020 season. Headed into that contest, Washington ranked just outside the top-10 in fantasy points per game, and even with all the injuries on offense San Francisco remains a dangerous team thanks to the machinations of head coach Kyle Shanahan. But the Niners have also been more mistake-prone of late—against the Buffalo Bills in Week 13 San Francisco turned it over twice.
Baltimore Ravens (at Cleveland Browns)
Speaking of nervous fantasy managers, after watching the Cleveland Browns post a franchise0record 38 first-half points against the Tennessee Titans last week, some of the shine has admittedly come off this matchup for the Ravens Defense. But we have already seen these teams match up once, and back in Week 1 the Ravens notched a pair of sacks and secured three takeaways in a blowout victory for Baltimore. The Ravens are toward the bottom of the top-10 in my rankings this week, but while they aren’t a great play the Ravens aren’t a terrible one, either.
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STREAMERS OF THE WORLD, UNITE!
Seattle Seahawks (vs. New York Jets)
Yes, the Seahawks were just upset by the Giants in a game where New York shockingly ran all over Seattle. Yes, the Jets actually showed a pulse on offense last week, taking a late lead against the Las Vegas Raiders before Gregg Williams decided he really wanted to be fired and made the worst blitz call in recent memory. But the Seahawks have played better defensively since the Carlos Dunlap trade, and I have about as much confidence in the Jets playing competent football two weeks in a row as I do in my making the “nice” list this year. Seattle is a top-five play in Week 14.
Kansas City Chiefs (at Miami Dolphins)
The Chiefs have been a low-end weekly starter for fantasy managers in 2020 if you look at the season as a whole, but look closer and you’ll see that Kansas City hasn’t had a good fantasy outing since scoring a pair of non-offensive touchdowns in Week 7 against the Denver Broncos. Well folks, this is the week that changes, and the reason has more to do with Kansas City’s opponent than the Chiefs themselves. If the Chiefs get staked to a lead Sunday in Miami, the Dolphins will have to go pass-heavy—and the last time Tua Tagovailoa did that against the Denver Broncos, he wound up getting pulled in favor of Ryan Fitzpatrick.
San Francisco 49ers (vs. Washington Football Team)
It’s been a nightmare of a season for the 49ers, whether it’s the injuries that have savaged both sides of the ball of the COVID-19 restrictions in Santa Clara County that forced the entire team to pack up and move to Arizona. But there’s no quit in these 49ers, and in players like Kerry Hyder, Arik Armstead, Fred Warner, Dre Greenlaw, Richard Sherman and Jimmie Ward the 49ers still have plenty of playmakers on defense. Washington isn’t a great offensive football team, and the loss of running back Antonio Gibson makes them that much less so.
Green Bay Packers (at Detroit Lions)
Last week, the Packers were the beneficiary of the gravy matchup that is the Philadelphia Eagles and their matador O-line. The week before that, it was the Chicago Bears and their dumpster fire of an offense. In those two games combined, the Pack tallied 10 sacks, four takeaways and a defensive score on the way to scoring the fourth-most points among fantasy defenses over that span. The Lions showed some signs of life offensively last week against the Chicago Bears, but Detroit still ranks inside the top-10 for the season in fantasy points per game surrendered to defenses.
Houston Texans (at Chicago Bears)
The Texans have not been a good defensive football team in 2020, and that has extended to fantasy football, where the team ranks in the bottom quarter of the league in terms of fantasy points. But the Texans have shown a pulse once or twice this season when the matchup is right—Houston was a top-five weekly scorer in their romp over the Lions on Thanksgiving. Week 14 brings another plus matchup with an NFC North foe—the Texans travel to Chicago to face a reeling Bears team that has given up the sixth-most fantasy points to defenses in 2020.
Dallas Cowboys (at Cincinnati Bengals)
Hey, if you’re going to stream defenses in the fantasy playoffs, sometimes you have to be willing to go out on a limb. And to be clear, the Dallas defense has not been good this season—no team in the NFL allows more points per game. But Sunday in Cincinnati, the Cowboys face a Bengals team that has generated next to no offense since Joe Burrow went down with a season-ending knee injury. Mind you. The Bengals were a top-10 fantasy matchup for defenses when Burrow was out there—largely because of poor pass protection. Now? There may not be a better matchup target in the entire NFL.
CAVEAT EMPTOR, FOLKS
Pittsburgh Steelers (at Buffalo Bills)
The Steelers have spent most of this season being about as matchup-proof as a defense gets. The Steelers are on pace to lead the NFL in sacks for a fourth consecutive season. It’s a situation where if you sit them, they will have a monster game to spite you and you will spend months kicking yourself for overthinking things. But the injuries are really starting to mount in Pittsburgh, with inside linebacker Robert Spillane and cornerback Joe Haden leaving Monday’s stunning loss to Washington. Add in a Buffalo offense that just torched the 49ers, and while freaking out may be a tad overboard a measure of worry in Week 14 is understandable.
Miami Dolphins (vs. Kansas City Chiefs)
The 8-4 Miami Dolphins are one of the biggest surprises in the NFL this year, and much of the team’s success in 2020 can be attributed to Brian Flores’ defense—a defense that ranks second in the league in points allowed and third in fantasy points. Still, if there’s one top-five fantasy defense that gets Week 14 off, it’s probably the Dolphins—for obvious reasons. Counting on Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City offense to struggle two weeks in a row feels unwise, especially after the Steelers loss in Week 14 opened up the possibility of the Chiefs getting the top seed in the AFC.
