Captain
Allen is the obvious captain play. He averaged 26 DraftKings points per game last year on the back of an elite passing and rushing combo. Allen became the second player to ever pass for 4,000 yards and rush for 700. He crushed both numbers. The Bills’ five percent pass rate over expected will also ensure that no matter the game script, Allen is slinging it. I have him projected as the most popular captain, so if you play him at the top spot, be sure to get weird elsewhere.
Kupp is the only other contender to be the top-owned captain. He led the league with 27.8 points per game last year and then blew up for a 45/625/7 line in four playoff outings. Kupp finished top-five in red zone targets, end zone targets, and weighted opportunity rating. The only thing that will prevent him from being the most popular captain is a nagging elbow injury afflicting his quarterback.
Diggs’ counting stats were down last year, but he was still elite in terms of his volume. He accounted for 26 percent of the Bills’ targets and 34 percent of their air yards. His matchup with Jalen Ramsey could turn some people off, but I’d be willing to buy the dip if it knocks his ownership.
Stafford’s old-man elbow has already gotten a lot of buzz this offseason, but the most recent quote from McVay was Stafford would have “no limitations.” The real downside with Stafford is his lack of rushing production. He topped 30 points just three times last year including four playoff games. That makes it hard to find a case for playing him at captain, even as the third or fourth-most popular option.
Flex
After these two, there’s a massive dropoff in production at the receiver position. Given the offseason hype surrounding Davis, I expect him to be more popular in tournaments. Our projections give him a slight edge over Robinson, but a $1,000 discount on DraftKings makes the latter a slightly better value. If that comes with an ownership advantage, Robinson, who was never played with a quarterback half as talented as Stafford, would be my pick.
The Bills’ absurd pass rate makes it difficult to have faith in their backfield. It makes it even harder to buy into a running back who struggles as a receiver. I like Singletary as a bet against Buffalo’s passing attack, but I would only play him in lineups with plenty of Rams and no Josh Allen.
Ambiguous backfields are the perfect spots to target for single-game contests. Plenty of times, two backs will share the touches and neither is a slam dunk. However, if the split breaks in favor of one of them, that player has a strong chance of making the optimal lineup.
Akers averaged 17 carries and two catches per game in the playoffs. Henderson, on the other hand, was targeted five times and played 22 snaps in the Super Bowl. This is a situation that I want to buy into from both sides.
Singletary will be the clear lead-back in Buffalo, but he also struggled as a pass-catcher in 2021. He ranked 66th out of 67th running back in yards per route run. Cook has above-average hands and loads of burst, making him an interesting target for Josh Allen and our fantasy lineups.
Zack Moss got some run as a goal-line option in the preseason. He could go out and play zero snaps. He could also punch in two short touchdowns. Do what you want with that information.
Value
With Van Jefferson ruled out, Skowronek is going to project as the best value of the slate. When the Rams lost Robert Woods and had only just traded for Odell Beckham, Skowronek played on 76 percent of their snaps.
Tutu Atwell and even preseason standout Lance McCutcheon would be viable pivots in the largest contests. DraftKings’ flagship tournament has 355K entrants while Fanduel’s is all the way up at 396K. Lowering the number of lineups your roster is duplicated with is the easiest way to gain an edge over the field.
All reports have McKenzie easily winning the starting slot role over Jamison Crowder. That’s especially valuable on DraftKings, where you get a full point per reception. McKenzie may not be as popular as Skowronek because of the difference in price, but both with be popular punt options.
Jamison Crowder, who was a valuable slot receiver for the Jets and Commanders, is a strong tournament pivot off both value players.
Knox was second on the Bills in red zone targets and finished top-10 in the entire league in catches inside the 10-yard line. He was the only one of the top 10 to score fewer than five touchdowns. Knox is a bit overpriced on Fanduel, but a double-score will still have him crushing his $10K price tag.
Higbee is an unexciting option but comes in as a value on both Fanduel and DraftKings. He never hit 70 yards in 2021 but he was on the field for over 90 percent of the offense’s snaps in 11-of-15 games.
The loss of Jefferson could tilt the Rams toward more 2TE sets. That gives Brycen Hopkins some life as a deep sleeper. Hopkins caught all four of his targets for 47 yards in the Super Bowl.
Because the Bills are favored, Tyler Bass will likely come in as the more popular kicker. However, the Rams were more conservative with their fourth-down decisions last year and the spread is just two points. At slightly lower ownership, I’d bet on Gay.
