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No time for messing around with a contrived kicker-centric intro to this week’s column. You’re not here for that anyway.
Let’s see where the almighty kicker process points us in Week 8.
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Week 7 Results
Nick Folk (NE) vs. NYJ
2/2 field goals
14 fantasy points
Rank: 3rd
Younghoe Koo (ATL) vs. MIA
3/3 field goals
12 fantasy points
Rank: 5th
Now for your weekly allotment of kicker notes…
-Joe Judge’s greatest passion is watching Graham Gano kick field goals. This is an irrefutable fact. Any time the G-people can maintain some semblance of neutral game script, Gano is going to get his chances, as he did in Week 7 with three field goal attempts, all of which he converted. Gano’s only down games of 2021 came in the Giants’ Week 6 blowout loss to the Rams and their Week 1 thrashing at the hands of the Broncos. In the team’s other five games -- which they won or at least stayed close throughout -- Gano has notched a hefty average of 3.2 attempts. New York stinks in the red zone. In fact, no team is worse at converting red zone possessions into touchdowns. Any time we think the Giants can hang tough with their opponents -- and we have reason to believe they can compete against the collapsing Chiefs in Week 8 -- Gano becomes a viable fantasy option. A word of caution: The Giants are 4.13 field goal tries over expectation.
-Greg Joseph has reaped the benefits of being the kicker in a yardage-churning Minnesota offense (which would be less yardage-churning if the Vikings defense could stop anyone). Joseph, fantasy’s third highest scoring kicker in points per game, leads the NFL in field goal tries despite Minnesota’s Week 7 bye. He is, however, way over field goal expectation -- 4.03 attempts, to be precise. The Vikings heading into Week 8 as 2.5 point underdogs to Dallas shouldn’t exclude Joseph from consideration. He could easily keep up his productive ways in a game featuring the week’s highest implied total (55).
-Harrison Butker now has the third fewest field goal attempts (8) in the NFL. That’s quite the fall from grace for fantasy’s No. 1 kicker two short years ago. Kansas City’s offense is in disarray, the Chiefs remain aggressive in the red zone -- converting nearly 62 percent of their red zone visits into touchdowns -- and they’re not always in position to kick field goals in the second half thanks to the team’s freefall. I could be jailed for preaching bearishness on a kicker whose team is favored by 10 this week, but I’m (almost) sure you can do better than Butker. KC is 7.32 field goal tries below expectation.
-Matthew Wright, he of London fame, isn’t the worst Week 8 option if you’re desperate. Jacksonville takes on the besieged Seahawks, entering as three-point underdogs. Any team -- even Urban Meyer’s Jaguars -- can generate at least some neutral script against Seattle these days. The Seahawks have given up the third most field goal attempts (17) this season, including seven over the past three weeks, which happens to coincide with Russell Wilson’s absence. That Wright doesn’t fit the process perfectly in Week 8 shouldn’t send you chasing worse kicker options if you can’t land the streamers.
Plug-and-Play Week 8 Starters
Tyler Bass (BUF) vs. MIA: The king is back and his Bills are favored by a million points this week against the dead-on-arrival Dolphins. Buffalo’s implied total sits at 31.5 as of this writing. Bass, as always, has a massive ceiling.
Younghoe Koo (ATL) vs. CAR: The Falcons are 2.5-point home favorites against the collapsed Panthers. Comically positive game script for Carolina opponents over the past three weeks has led to ten field goal attempts against the Panthers. Koo, meanwhile has multiple attempts in two of three Atlanta wins. You’re feeling good about deploying Koo in Week 8. Atlanta is 1.09 field goal tries over expectation.
Matt Gay (LAR) at HOU: Gay had a decent fantasy outing last week even after the Rams fell behind the tricky Lions. The Rams are once again heavy favorites, this time against a Texans team that has not one single prayer of stopping LA’s offense.
Matt Prater (ARI) vs. GB: Devante Adams being out for Thursday night’s Packers-Cardinals matchup has made Arizona six-point favorites (with an implied total of 28.5 points, the fifth highest of Week 8). Prater, who has logged multiple field goal tries in six of seven games in 2021, is as solid a process play as you’ll find.
Greg Zuerlein (DAL) at MIN: You’re locking in Legatron in what the zoomers call a barnburner. The Cowboys should be able to move the ball at will against the soft Vikings defense, setting up Zuerlein nicely for his fifth multi-attempt game of 2021. Dallas has the ninth most field goal attempts and is a mere 0.57 field goal tries over expectation. That’s good.
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Week 8 Streaming Options
Evan McPherson (CIN) at NYJ (8 percent rostered)
This one feels like cheating. McPherson is available in 92 percent of leagues headed into Week 8 and he gets what is perhaps the best matchup of the week. It’s not cheating, but touting McPherson doesn’t seem difficult enough for the kicker streaming grind, which is famously grinding.
McPherson, fantasy’s 11th highest scoring kicker this season, has multiple field goal tries in five of his seven games -- opportunity powered by a Bengals offense that has steadily improved as coaches ramp up the passing attack that generated so many field goal attempts in the first nine weeks of the 2020 season. He has sweet, sweet double-digit fantasy points in three of Cincy’s five wins this year.
Probably you know what’s coming next. The Bengals are 9.5-point favorites in Week 8 against the Zach Wilson-less Jets -- if that even matters -- with an implied total of 26.25 points. A string of injuries to key Jets defenders gives Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati offense nuclear upside this week. They will, per sources, score all the points. And McPherson will (hopefully) get a few field goal tries when the Bengals can’t punch it in for six. If you can stand any more good news about McPherson’s prospects: The Bengals are 1.5 field goal attempts below expectation this season. The process, the process, the process.
No team allows more field goal tries per game (3) than the Jets. Quite incredibly, every kicker to face the Jets this season has tried multiple field goals. The low-water mark for kickers playing the Jets was in Week 1, when Ryan Santoso made two field goals on his way to eight fantasy points.
McPherson, if the Bengals’ schedule is any indication, is on his way to plug-and-play status. The improving Bengals offense and a less-than-intimidating November slate could mean you’re done with streaming if you nab McPherson this week. You will, of course, still read this column in its entirety.
Jake Elliott (PHI) at DET (5 percent rostered)
Can we have any modicum of confidence that the Eagles will beat the Lions this week? Seeing that Nick Sirianni hates Jalen Hurts as his starting quarterback and refuses to call plays that maximize Hurts’ abilities, along with the Lions’ burning desire to get a W, I’d say no. Philadelphia is the most precarious three-point favorite in recent NFL history.
I think -- think! -- the Eagles can stick with the Lions and create enough neutral game script for Jake Elliott to get two or three field goal tries. No team has allowed more field goal attempts than Detroit this season, with five of seven kickers logging multiple attempts against the Lions. Detroit’s shoddy defense gives opponents every chance to storm back and eliminate the negative script that suppresses field goal opportunities, as we saw in Week 7 when the Rams fell behind early and Matt Gay still managed a coupe field goals.
Elliott’s three multi-attempt games this season came when the Eagles went back and forth with their opponents, never falling behind enough to forgo field goal attempts. That’s precisely what we’re going for with Elliott in Week 8 against the Lions. My one concern is Detroit’s inability to stop anyone near the end zone; they’ve given up a touchdown on 84 percent of the red zone possessions against them this season, the highest in the NFL.
Elliott is a comfortable 3.71 field goal tries under expectation in 2021.
Randy Bullock (TEN) at IND (18 percent rostered)
Tennessee’s large adult son kicker has been good and serviceable for fantasy managers through seven weeks. He’s made 13 of his 15 attempts and ranks ninth among kickers in fantasy points. He’s done this in part because the Titans are middle of the road in red zone efficiency, a dramatic departure from their inside-the-20 domination in 2019 and 2020.
Bullock finds himself in another sweet spot this week with the Titans one-point favorites against the divisional rival Colts, sporting an implied total of 25.25 points. He’s had multiple attempts in three of the Titans’ past four games, the exception being the team’s Week 5 domination of the Jaguars.
Bullock is a solid process option even though the Colts haven’t given up many field goals through Week 7 (only three teams have allowed fewer field goals). Roll with the large adult son if you can’t get McPherson.
