Monday Night Football
Minnesota @ Chicago
Team Totals: Vikings 21.5, Bears 18.5
Mercifully scrapping the Mike Glennon experiment after four weeks, the Bears will turn to Mitchell Trubisky against a Vikings defense that has yielded one fantasy quarterback finish above QB16 despite an opening-month gauntlet of Drew Brees, Ben Roethlisberger, Jameis Winston, and Matthew Stafford. The Vikings have allowed just 2-of-20 enemy passers to reach 300 yards since the start of 2016, and Trubisky will debut with the NFL’s worst receiver corps. I’m still keeping the light on for Trubisky as an immediate two-quarterback-league play based in large part on his athleticism. He possesses plus speed (4.67), was a legitimate scrambling threat in college, and the Bears proactively put his mobility to use on boots and rollouts all preseason, where Trubisky rushed five times for 48 yards and was hyper efficient as a passer with a 67.9% completion rate, three touchdowns, and no turnovers. … As mobile quarterbacks can elevate their teams’ running games by causing hesitation and even freeze amongst front-seven defenders and/or by simply adding a new offensive dimension defenses must account for, Trubisky’s insertion bodes positively for Jordan Howard, who shook off a turbulent Weeks 1-2 to amass 20-plus touches in consecutive weeks, and now has an 11-day layoff to overcome any lingering issues from his early-season shoulder injury. The Vikings, of course, have been nails against the run, limiting enemy backs to a combined 83/269/3.24/1 rushing line and the NFL’s fifth-fewest receiving yards (110). Howard is a volume-driven, borderline RB1. … After tallying touch totals of 13 > 15 > 16 in Weeks 1-3, Tarik Cohen was surprisingly minimized in the Bears’ game plan in last Thursday night’s loss to Green Bay, managing 48 scoreless yards on a season-low ten touches and playing only 26% of the snaps. A primary reason was increased involvement for perennial troll Benny Cunningham, who returned from his high ankle sprain to nearly equal Cohen’s playing time (24%) and swipe 11 passing-down snaps.
Trubisky’s preseason touchdowns went to Cunningham, now-free agent Victor Cruz, and Bears practice-squad WR Tanner Gentry. At least among players presently on the 53-man roster, we have no tangible evidence of a “rapport” between Trubisky and any particular Bears pass catcher. … Zach Miller is my best bet for a productive Monday nighter against the Vikings, who yielded 5/54/1 to Coby Fleener in Week 1, 6/50/1 to Bears tight ends in Week 3, and 7/82/0 to Lions tight ends in Week 4. Albeit with Glennon quarterbacking, Miller ranks second on the Bears in targets (20) and first in targets inside the ten-yard line (2). … Slot men to face the Vikings in the first month were Golden Tate (3/29/0), Adam Humphries (6/68/0), Eli Rogers/JuJu Smith-Schuster (7/59/1), and Brandon Coleman/Tommylee Lewis (4/65/0). I’m approaching Kendall Wright as a low-floor, relatively low-ceiling WR4/flex option here.
The Vikings are a difficult team to analyze because we don’t know their starting quarterback. For the sake of a writeup, I’ll assume it’s Case Keenum. Even in two-QB leagues, I’m fading Keenum at Soldier Field after another brutal outing in Week 4. … Latavius Murray was the Vikings’ lead back following Dalvin Cook’s ACL tear, logging 19 snaps post-Cook injury to Jerick McKinnon’s six and nine touches to McKinnon’s two. This is a wait-and-see week for Minnesota’s backfield. Chicago has played lights-out run defense, limiting enemy backs to a 90/325/3.61/4 rushing line and the NFL’s fourth-fewest receiving yards (96). … Keenum’s Weeks 2-4 target distribution: Stefon Diggs 24; Adam Thielen 22; Kyle Rudolph 12; Jerick McKinnon 9; Jarius Wright 5; Murray 2. … The good news for Diggs is Chicago has been shredded by No. 1 WRs in three straight games, namely Antonio Brown (10/110/1), Mike Evans (7/93/1), and Jordy Nelson (4/75/2). The bad news is Diggs’ quarterback is Keenum, who completed two passes for 27 yards to Diggs the last time they played together in a road game. Diggs is best viewed as a volatile WR2/3. … Same goes for slot man Thielen, whose floor does look higher than Diggs’ with five catches in all three of Keenum’s starts. … Rudolph has dudded each game this season to the extent that he simply can’t be trusted until he puts something into a box score. I do think there’s a chance Cook’s injury could benefit Rudolph if the Vikings’ run games goes in the gutter and OC Pat Shurmur becomes compelled to have Rudolph block less and run short, higher-percentage routes more.
Score Prediction: Bears 21, Vikings 20
