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A running quarterback remains one of the greatest edges in fantasy football. Any time you can add an explosive ground game to a player who may throw for 3,500 yards and 25+ scores, the ceiling of your roster gets a little bit better.
The great Rich Hribar took a deep dive into the scoring inefficiencies that can be exploited by running QBs in his original #KonamiCodeQB article back in 2013.
While the rushing quarterback is still an edge, that edge has become narrowed with the addition of so many athletic quarterbacks being drafted in recent years.
During what I would call the “Pre-Lamar Era” of the NFL (2000-2017), high-volume rushing quarterbacks were something of a rarity. There were 17 seasons in which a quarterback rushed 100+ times in a season. That unique distinction belonged to eight different QBs, with Mike Vick and Cam Newton accounting for 11 of those 17 seasons.
In the “Lamar Era”, where we currently find ourselves (2018-present), we see far more quarterbacks hitting that 100+ carries threshold on a per-year basis.
Newton hung around for a few more seasons, but guys like Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen are glowing examples of the new generation of quarterbacks. Jalen Hurts has a chance to firmly cement himself as part of that generation this upcoming season.
For as much as we love these rushing quarterbacks, their upside doesn’t come without sacrifice. Every rush attempt by these players means one less carry for a running back or one less target for a wide receiver.
With the rise of Konami Code quarterbacks becoming more prevalent, let’s take a look at how these supporting players are affected by said high-volume rushers. In the first of a two-part series, we take a look at the running back position, with receivers and tight ends to come in the following week.
Notes: Advanced stats and metrics courtesy of Pro Football Reference, RotoViz and PFF.com. This article is based on full-PPR scoring.
And Your RB1 is...
Before we dive too deep into this, there are a few qualifiers that the QBs in this study must meet. Those being:
- Minimum 12 games played
- Minimum 14 pass attempts/gm
- Minimum 6.0 rush attempts/gm
When we apply said qualifiers, we are left with a “greatest hits” list of quarterbacks, along with some young blood.
Player | Team | Season | paATTS/gm | ruATTS/gm |
Kordell Stewart | PIT | 2001 | 27.69 | 6 |
MIN | 2002 | 34.5 | 6.6 | |
ATL | 2002 | 28.13 | 7.5 | |
| Michael Vick | ATL | 2004 | 21.4 | 8 |
| Michael Vick | ATL | 2005 | 25.8 | 6.8 |
| Michael Vick | ATL | 2006 | 24.31 | 7.6 |
TEN | 2007 | 25.53 | 6.2 | |
| Michael Vick | PHI | 2010 | 31 | 8.3 |
CAR | 2011 | 32.31 | 7.9 | |
| Cam Newton | CAR | 2012 | 30.31 | 8 |
WAS | 2012 | 26.27 | 8 | |
| Cam Newton | CAR | 2013 | 29.56 | 6.9 |
SEA | 2013 | 25.5 | 6 | |
WAS | 2013 | 35.08 | 6.6 | |
SF | 2014 | 29.88 | 6.5 | |
SEA | 2014 | 28.38 | 7.4 | |
| Cam Newton | CAR | 2014 | 32 | 7.4 |
| Cam Newton | CAR | 2015 | 31 | 8.2 |
SEA | 2015 | 30.25 | 6.4 | |
BUF | 2015 | 27.14 | 7.4 | |
| Cam Newton | CAR | 2016 | 33.93 | 6 |
BUF | 2016 | 29.13 | 6.3 | |
| Cam Newton | CAR | 2017 | 30.81 | 8.7 |
HOU | 2018 | 31.56 | 6.2 | |
| Cam Newton | CAR | 2018 | 33.64 | 7.2 |
| Josh Allen | BUF | 2018 | 26.67 | 7.4 |
| Josh Allen | BUF | 2019 | 28.81 | 6.8 |
| Lamar Jackson | BAL | 2019 | 26.73 | 11.7 |
| Josh Allen | BUF | 2020 | 35.75 | 6.4 |
ARI | 2020 | 34.88 | 8.3 | |
| Cam Newton | NE | 2020 | 24.53 | 9.1 |
| Lamar Jackson | BAL | 2020 | 25.07 | 10.6 |
| Josh Allen | BUF | 2021 | 39.53 | 7.2 |
PHI | 2021 | 30.53 | 9.3 | |
ARI | 2021 | 36.57 | 6.3 | |
CHI | 2021 | 25.5 | 6 | |
| Lamar Jackson | BAL | 2021 | 35 | 11.1 |
We see 37 quarterback seasons that meet these qualifiers since 2000, with 14 of them (37.8%) coming since 2018. Unsurprisingly, Lamar Jackson distinguishes himself as the only quarterback of the last 22 seasons to average double-digit rush attempts per game.
With Jackson’s high rush attempts also comes historically high quarterback rush rates.
Of this group, the median QB rush rate sits at 22.9%, while the two highest single-season rush rates for a quarterback belong to Jackson.
Again, we also see the effect that the “Lamar Era” of quarterbacks is having on QB rushing upside. Of the top-10 rush rates shown above, seven have occurred since 2018. If you expand that to the top-15 rush rates since 2000, 11 of the top-15 land within that same range (73.3%).
As mentioned earlier, a quarterback absorbing a substantial rush rate comes at a cost.
Fantasy points at times come at a premium for running backs tethered to these quarterbacks. Looking at the 37 seasons in which a quarterback met our thresholds for a high-volume rushing QB, only 19 running backs finished as a top-24 back in fantasy points per game (51.4%). Nine running backs finished top-12 in fantasy points per game (24.3%).
In large, we also see the top-scoring RB on these individual teams average fewer points per game as quarterback rush rate increases. Below is a chart displaying a team’s highest-scoring RB on a points per game basis, and the rush rate of the quarterback they played with.
It’s interesting to note that of the nine top-12 RBs in points per game, three of those seasons (2010, 2015 and 2016) belong to LeSean McCoy during his time with Philadelphia and Buffalo. Generational PPR back Christian McCaffrey also falls into this group (2018) as does Marshawn Lynch (2012 and 2013).
It often takes a truly elite back to achieve a top-12 RB season when playing with these high-volume rushing QBs.
Knowing what we do about overall running back production over the years, let’s move on to the receiving volume running backs receive under these quarterbacks.
These Satellite Backs are a Real Catch...Right?
One of the greatest cheat codes in fantasy, after the Konami QB of course, is the satellite PPR back. In recent years, fantasy managers have made bank on the pass-catch upside that players like Danny Woodhead, Darren Sproles and James White provided. While their rushing floor was often minimal to non-existent, these guys were locked into every dump-down pass that ever existed.
We know these rushing quarterbacks vulture rush attempts from their running backs, and fantasy points as a whole.
But what’s left to be had in the passing game?
Looking again at our list of 37 quarterbacks, here is how their backfields shaped up in targets per game and where they ranked in the league.
Player | Team | Season | RB Targets/gm | Rank |
Kordell Stewart | PIT | 2001 | 3.6 | 32 |
MIN | 2002 | 5.2 | 30 | |
| Michael Vick | ATL | 2002 | 6.4 | 24 |
| Michael Vick | ATL | 2004 | 5.2 | 26 |
| Michael Vick | ATL | 2005 | 5.1 | 25 |
| Michael Vick | ATL | 2006 | 4.6 | 29 |
TEN | 2007 | 4.7 | 31 | |
| Michael Vick | PHI | 2010 | 6.5 | 10 |
| Cam Newton | CAR | 2011 | 5.6 | 19 |
WAS | 2012 | 2.9 | 32 | |
| Cam Newton | CAR | 2012 | 5.1 | 18 |
WAS | 2013 | 3.4 | 30 | |
SEA | 2013 | 3.5 | 29 | |
| Cam Newton | CAR | 2013 | 4.9 | 25 |
SF | 2014 | 2.4 | 32 | |
| Cam Newton | CAR | 2014 | 4.3 | 30 |
SEA | 2014 | 4.4 | 29 | |
| Cam Newton | CAR | 2015 | 4.4 | 32 |
SEA | 2015 | 5.6 | 28 | |
BUF | 2015 | 5.1 | 26 | |
| Cam Newton | CAR | 2016 | 4.4 | 31 |
BUF | 2016 | 5.1 | 29 | |
| Cam Newton | CAR | 2017 | 8.4 | 8 |
HOU | 2018 | 4.2 | 32 | |
| Josh Allen | BUF | 2018 | 5.8 | 23 |
| Cam Newton | CAR | 2018 | 8.3 | 6 |
| Lamar Jackson | BAL | 2019 | 3.3 | 32 |
| Josh Allen | BUF | 2019 | 4.7 | 29 |
| Lamar Jackson | BAL | 2020 | 3.2 | 32 |
| Josh Allen | BUF | 2020 | 4.8 | 26 |
ARI | 2020 | 6.3 | 17 | |
| Cam Newton | NE | 2020 | 7.1 | 7 |
BAL | 2021 | 4.1 | 31 | |
CHI | 2021 | 5.4 | 29 | |
BUF | 2021 | 5.5 | 27 | |
ARI | 2021 | 6.1 | 19 | |
PHI | 2021 | 6.2 | 15 |
To say things are gross here would be an understatement.
Of the 37 seasons shown, these high-volume rushers had backfields that finished dead last (32nd) in targets per game seven times (21.9%). On 26 occasions these teams finished 25th or worse in backfield targets per game (70.3%).
Four teams have finished top-10 in backfield targets per game, with Cam Newton quarterbacking three of them while playing with McCaffrey (2017 and 2018) and James White (2020).
Newton and his battery mates have made for a unique combination of production when you compare what they have done to the overall findings of this exercise. We’ll see more of this in next week’s article that covers receivers and tight ends.
Applying What We Know to 2022
As we head into another fantasy season we have seven quarterbacks on our list of 37 who are expected to star for their teams in 2022.
Looking at what we know, here is a quick look at how running backs are being drafted in FanBall best ball leagues, which fits the full-PPR scoring format used for this article.
At first glance, Nick Chubb and Javonte Williams look like immediate risks at their top-12 ADP. However, it’s worth noting that Russell Wilson has not been a high-volume rusher since 2015, and Deshaun Watson has only appeared on this list once.
James Conner, David Montgomery and J.K. Dobbins are both drawing RB2 ADP, which could be within their range of outcomes. Conner was a top-12 with Kyler Murray last season, and we’ve seen Lamar Jackson support a top-12 RB in Mark Ingram during the 2019 season. David Montgomery will need to weather the difficulty of playing in a potentially bad Bears offense coupled with the rushing upside of Justin Fields to return value at his current RB19 price.
Buffalo running backs make for interesting picks at their current ADP, however I’d temper expectations with satellite back James Cook. On one hand, Buffalo has expressed interest in finding a top-flight pass-catching back this offseason after a deal with J.D. McKissic fell through. On the other hand, the Bills have ranked 26th, 27th, 29th and 23rd in running back targets per game since 2018. Cook may be a safe bet to outperform his RB40 draft slot, but he may need to vulture rush attempts from Devin Singletary to provide a meaningful ceiling if Allen doesn’t zero in on him as a receiver.