For those of you that are trying to cram in every morsel of fantasy football that the 2016 season must offer, playoff pools and DFS for postseason games are kicking off to fulfill our final fantasy needs. I’m going to take some space each week to rank the positions from the remaining teams as a guide to maximizing those final efforts.
The NFL is already an inherently volatile game weekly when we have 16 matchups to dissect, so when we cut the weekly player pool down to eight teams in four games, we’re inviting variance to run amuck. In DFS games, we can swerve into that variance to a degree by maximizing player exposure to cover as many angles as clairvoyantly possible. I typically avoid cash games for the NFL Playoffs, but want to run out as many different tournament lineups as possible in multi-entry fields over trying to hit a bullseye in single entry contests. If you’re someone doing a playoff pool, that is much tougher to do. My best advice in those pools is to try maximize player games as much as possible as Jeff Brubach suggested with his overall ranks.
Also, for the sake of finding as much middle ground as possible to cater to all scoring formats, I’m going to operate under the tent of .5 PPR scoring here. Before we run this intro too long, let’s roll into the ranks…
Quarterbacks
1. Ben Roethlisberger (vs MIA): Not having Aaron Rodgers as the top play is sure to raise some eyebrows, but there’s a reason that Roethlisberger is priced nearly identically to Rodgers when looking at this week on its own. Big Ben has a better individual matchup and has been a fantasy stud when at home this season. At Heinz Field this season, Roethlisberger completed 70.8 percent of his passes for 319.2 yards per game with 20 touchdowns and five interceptions as opposed to a 59.4 percent completion rate, 238 yards per game and nine touchdowns to eight interceptions on the road. He averaged 25.5 points per game over those home starts with a low of 18.6. Although Miami shut down the Pittsburgh offense entirely in Week 6, the Miami defense is playing some awful pass defense currently. Over their final six games to close the season, Miami surrendered 25 plus fantasy points to four different quarterbacks (Colin Kaepernick, Joe Flacco, Tyrod Taylor and Tom Brady), only preventing the Jets passers and Carson Palmer in a near hurricane from hitting that mark over that span. Considering the matchup tied into his own strong home splits while Pittsburgh has the highest implied team total of the week, Big Ben is the top quarterback for the opening week of the postseason.
2. Aaron Rodgers (vs NYG): Rodgers is on a massive hot streak that has vaulted him into MVP contention. Over his final 11 games of the season, Rodgers threw 30 touchdown passes to three interceptions while averaging 26.1 fantasy points per game. A matchup versus the Giants is far from a strong paper play, though. The Giants faced the fourth most pass attempts per game during the regular season (39.4), but allowed just 15 touchdown passes (second best in the league outside of Denver) and 6.0 adjusted yards per pass attempt, also second best in the league. Just three quarterbacks managed 16 points against the Giants on the season, with no one hitting 20 points in a game. Still, one of those players was Rodgers who had 17.9 points in the Week 5 meeting between these teams and over Rodgers’ current hot streak, he’s performed strongly against Houston (16 points), Seattle (21 points) and Minnesota (37.2 points), three defenses that all ranked in the top-10 in fantasy points allowed per attempt to opposing passers. Despite the rough matchup, Rodgers can get over here, but I do prefer Roethlisberger in a vacuum to have a bigger game.
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3. Russell Wilson (vs DET): Like Roethlisberger, Wilson and the Seahawks have been far better while playing at home this season. Seattle was sixth in the league in offensive touchdowns at home (26) while being tied for dead last in offensive touchdowns on the road (10) this season. Wilson averaged 20.2 points per game at home this season while averaging 24.7 per game over his final five home games once he was beyond all of his lower extremity injuries. Detroit enters the postseason having allowed an NFL record 72.7 completion rate to opposing quarterbacks and the second most passing points per pass attempt (.505) in the league. The past two quarterbacks to face the Lions have thrown seven touchdown passes on just 59 pass attempts. Considering DFS costs where he’s priced a clear tier below Rodgers and Roethlisberger, Wilson may be the best value on the board this week at the position.
4. Eli Manning (@ GB): Manning has barely been a fantasy factor this season and is limping into the postseason in regards to tangible fantasy output. Manning has thrown for just 223.9 yards per game over his past 10 games while throwing for 201 yards or fewer in five of his past six games. He hasn’t hit 20 fantasy points in a week since Week 10 as his ceiling seems to go only as far as Odell Beckham can carry it. That may be worth something this week as the Packers pass defense has been one of the worst in the league. Green Bay allowed a league-worst 8.1 yards per pass attempt and 287.7 passing yards per game to opposing passers. The Green Bay defense was only marginally better when these teams met in Week 5 when Manning was 18-35 for 199 yards and one score, so it’s hard to inflate Manning too highly solely on the matchup, but the runway is in place for Giants to have success passing the ball this weekend.
5. Matthew Stafford (@ SEA): Like Manning, Stafford has crawled to the finish line. He’s thrown one or fewer touchdown passes in seven of his past 10 games to close the season and his only 300-yard passing games over that span came against New Orleans and Green Bay. Seattle may be less formidable without Earl Thomas patrolling back end, but it’s still tough to see Stafford stacking enough counting stats here as a road underdog with a 17.5-point implied team total to make a huge fantasy splash. The past four quarterbacks to play in Seattle in the postseason have combined for five touchdown passes.
6. Matt Moore (@ PIT): Moore has been serviceable for fantasy over his three starts, scoring at least 15 points in each game, but he’s done so due to touchdown output over all else, as he’s thrown for 236 yards or less in each start. Throwing touchdowns are something that Vegas doesn’t expect Miami to do as they have just a 18.5 point total and allowing passing touchdowns is something the Steelers really haven’t done on the season. Pittsburgh allowed a touchdown pass once every 29.5 pass attempts during the regular season, the fourth best rate in the league.
7. Brock Osweiler (vs OAK): The way to really beat Oakland through the air has been vertically and Osweiler has been one the worst quarterbacks in that regard on the season. He’s completed just 22 of 86 pass attempts (25.6 percent) that have been 15 yards or further downfield, the lowest completion rate for all quarterbacks with over 20 such pass attempts. As bad as he’s been, he’s still been able to fall into 15 or points weekly if you want to use him as a potential punt, but has reached 20 points in a game just once all season.
8. Connor Cook (@ HOU): Cook is expected to get the start this week and the Raiders are sporting just a 16.5 point implied team total this week. Cook completed 14 of 21 passes for 150 yards against the Broncos and this matchup is just as rough as the Texans allowed just 214 passing yards per game to opposing passers, second to only Denver on the season. Cook is a Hail Mary option only.
Running Backs
1. Le’Veon Bell (vs MIA): We need little explanation here. Bell leads all backs in touches (28) and yards from scrimmage (157) per game while holding a sizable advantage over the rest of the Week 1 running back field.
2. Lamar Miller (vs OAK): Having Miller second here should tell you all that you need to know about the position this week. Miller missed the final two weeks of the regular season with an ankle injury, but is expected to be a full go come Saturday. After Bell, Miller is the best bet on the board to receive 20 plus touches in a game where Houston is favored and will want to play tight to the vest given their quarterback play on the season. Oakland allowed 4.52 yards per carry to opposing backs on the season (27th) and Miller carried 24 times for 104 yards and a score when these teams met in Week 11. Miller averaged 17.3 points per game in the five games which Houston was favored with a low of 12.3 points.
3. Jay Ajayi (@ PIT): Ajayi’s coming out party came when these two teams met in Week 6 as he ran for 204 yards and two scores. Since his initial hot streak, Ajayi has cooled considerably, reaching 80-yards on the ground in just one of his past eight games played. Pittsburgh has also allowed just two backs to reach 60-yards on the ground over their past nine games. He’s also dealing with a shoulder injury and will be without Mike Pouncey, who was active for three of the four games in which Ajayi eclipsed 100-yards on the ground. Despite his outlook appearing much bleaker than what he tallied in that first meeting, he’s had the type of big game output this season that makes him attractive in small fields such as this. Still, incorporating him being banged up and attached to a huge road underdog, I prefer Miller behind Bell.
4.Thomas Rawls (vs DET): The most intriguing thing I can say about Rawls this week is that he’s attached to a heavy home favorite because he’s been dreadful outside of one game this season. Rawls has carried 37 times over the past three weeks for 56 yards as Seattle just hasn’t been able to establish any type of consistent run game all season long. Rawls also hasn’t had more than two receptions in any of his past six games to circumvent porous rushing output. All of that said, Rawls is in play on the merit of Seattle expected to control the game and not really having a threat to his workload.
5. Zach Zenner (@ SEA): Zenner has played 76 percent and 97 of the snaps the past two weeks as he’s turned in 92 and 110 yards from scrimmage those two weeks with three touchdowns. As a huge road dog, the Lions aren’t in a spot that’s conducive to expect a bucket of points, but Zenner is going to stay on the field and catch passes, which will make him relevant. Seattle also has allowed 109 total yards to Shaun Draughn a week ago, as well as 136 to David Johnson the week prior, so there’s an avenue for Zenner to amass all-purpose counting stats even if he’s not overly attractive as a surface play against a Seattle defense allowing just 3.38 yards per carry to opposing backfields on the season.
6.Ty Montgomery (vs NYG): Montgomery has one of the lowest floors on the board, but he also has one of the highest ceilings. Since playing a season-high 84 percent of the snaps in Week 15 with 18 touches, Montgomery has played 63 and 47 percent of the snaps the past two weeks with 24 total touches. With his pass protection abilities in question and still in the early stages of learning the nuances to playing the playing the position, him playing a ton of snaps while teams are inherently funneled to being pass-heavy versus the Giants is a question mark. Montgomery is a volatile play that is priced in as a top-5 options on daily sites.
7. Paul Perkins (@ GB): Perkins’ rushing output has risen in each of his past six games. Over the past month, he’s averaged 16 touches per game and has produced 280 yards from scrimmage compared to 203 yards for Rashad Jennings on five fewer touches. The rub with Perkins is that his highest scoring games this season have been 10.2 points as he hasn’t scored a touchdown all season long. He’s had just one touch all season form inside of the 5-yard line and reached three receptions just once in a game, so his production is largely tied to rushing yardage output alone.
8. Latavius Murray (@ HOU): Murray’s share of the team snaps have dropped in every game since Week 13 and hit a low point of 30 percent to close the season as the Raiders have gone back to their three-headed backfield. Houston has allowed a league-best 71.9 yards per game rushing over their past nine games and allowed just 30 rushing yards to Oakland when these teams met in Week 11, a season-low for Oakland. Murray will have to do work in the receiving game or run into a bunny scoring opportunity to overcome any timeshare while the matchup is poor and Oakland is a road dog with a backup quarterback.
9. Aaron Ripkowski (vs NYG): Ripkowski played a season-high 48 percent of the snaps to close the season. His protection could lead to him seeing more snaps and he’s already scored in three of his past five games.
10. Rashad Jennings (@ GB): Jennings has been the lower end of a split with Perkins, averaging just 52.5 yards from scrimmage per game over his past six games played but has been slightly more involved in the passing game (seven receptions to two over the past four games) and has out-carried Perkins seven to one when inside of the 5-yard line.
11. DeAndre Washington (@ HOU): Washington has averaged 7.9 yards per touch over the past two weeks, but as mentioned with Murray, the matchup is as rough as it could be on paper while he needs to score from distance as Murray has a lock on goal line opportunities. That said, he’s near minimum priced in daily formats if you want to use him.
Final Tier: Alfred Blue, Jalen Richard, Damien Williams, Kenyan Drake, DeAngelo Williams, Alex Collins, Christine Michael, James Starks, Dwayne Washington, Jonathan Grimes, Marcel Reece, Jamize Olawale, Fitzgerald Toussaint
The final group are longshot plays that you can chase for a touchdown, but many are pure ancillary plays that largely require an in-game injury to occur to get elevated. If you want to find a longshot pairing option in a small field such as this, Drake can be paired with the Miami Defense in pure punt spots in hopes of doubling up a kickoff return touchdown.
Wide Receivers
1. Odell Beckham (@ GB): No receiver was a bigger necessity for his team’s offense this season than Beckham. He accounted for 25.3 percent of the New York offensive yardage, the highest share of his team’s yardage for any receiver in the league. Beckham also closed 2016 on a tear, scoring 15 or more fantasy points in seven of his final nine games. Green Bay was absolutely roasted on the back end this season, allowing the most receiving points per game to opposing wide receiver units and 8.8 yards per target to wideouts, the highest rate in the league. The one interesting thing surrounding all of those yards and efficiency allowed to opposing receivers is Green Bay seemed to devote extra attention to limiting true alpha receivers and were beaten more by secondary options. Julio Jones (3-29), T.Y. Hilton (6-82), Doug Baldwin (6-46) and Beckham himself (5-56-1) all turned in subpar performances versus the Packers compared to their seasonal output. That’s more me playing devil’s advocate than suggesting Beckham will be limited here as we know he should flirt with 15 plus targets against one of the worst secondaries in the league.
2. Antonio Brown (vs MIA): Brown had just 39 yards on four receptions when these teams met in Week 6 as Byron Maxwell had his highest pass coverage grade of the season per Pro Football Focus in that game. Maxwell is expected to be inactive or at best severely limited with an ankle injury that forced him to miss the past two weeks and even if he were to play, we’re not moving away from Brown solely because of him. Brown had 10 or more targets in 10 of 15 games this season and has multiple touchdown upside weekly.
3. Jordy Nelson (vs NYG): Nelson posted single-digit points just once over his final 10 games of the season, averaging 10.6 targets and 93.6 yards per game over that span with nine touchdowns. When these teams met in Week 5, Nelson had just 38 yards on 13 targets, but did find the paint. Nelson is also the Green Bay receiver that moves around the formation the most. Although he’ll contend with Janoris Jenkins and Dominque Rodgers-Cromartie, he’ll still find his way to Eli Apple enough and even when he finds the coverage of the first pair, Nelson still carries touchdown upside as he led the NFL in red zone targets (29), catches (19) and touchdowns (11) on the season.
4. Doug Baldwin (vs DET): Baldwin is sure to be popular this week because he’s priced underneath the three receivers previously mentioned and has shown to be just as good of a spike player when it comes to ceiling potential. The rub here is that ceiling didn’t pop up with the consistency that it did in 2015 and with far more floor moments. Baldwin had four games with 19.7 or more points, but also eight in the single digits. He also had more than eight targets in just five games. Baldwin runs 73 percent of his routes from the slot, so avoiding Darius Slay shouldn’t be much trouble, but if Seattle controls this game, Baldwin may have to do a lot on a small amount of looks.
5. Davante Adams (vs NYG): Adams is a player suited for small slates because of his volatile nature this season. Adams had had 44 yards or fewer in six of his past nine games, but has cleared 100-yards in the other three and has seven touchdowns over that span.
6. Jarvis Landry (vs PIT): No receiver accounted for a higher percentage of his team’s reception output than Landry did at 29.8 percent this season. He also has had 75-yards or more in four of his past five games to close the season. Although a solid source of yards and targets, the bugaboo for Landry in fantasy is of course being able to reach the end zone as he’s caught a touchdown in just 11 of his 48 career games played.
7. DeAndre Hopkins (vs OAK): Hopkins is coming off of his first 100-yard receiving game since Week 2, but he’s still scored a touchdown in just one of his past 11 games. Hopkins will primarily be matched up with Sean Smith, who was tied for allowing a league high seven touchdowns in coverage per Pro Football Focus, so there’s some hope here that he can get over, but Hopkins has had too many floor moments this season to completely trust.
8. Golden Tate (@ SEA): This is actually Tate’s second trip back to Seattle, so we can scrap the #RevengeGame narrative early as he had three catches for 29 yards in that first meeting. Tate has been the most bankable receiver for the Lions, though and we expect Detroit to remain as pass-heavy as always. From Week 6 on, Tate was third in the league in receiving yardage (942 yards), with six or more receptions in nine of those 11 games.
9./10. Michael Crabtree/Amari Cooper (@ HOU): Both Oakland receivers are dinged by playing with their third starting quarterback in as many weeks and the matchups on the perimeter are tough for both against Jonathan Joseph and A.J. Bouye. Houston allowed just 6.8 yards per target to opposing wide receivers on the season (third) and allowed just 68 yards on eight receptions to Oakland receivers when these teams met in Week 11, and that was with Derek Carr. The passing tree is so small in Oakland that both should still see enough targets to keep the lights on, but expectations are severely dampened.
11. Kenny Stills (vs PIT): Stills comes into the playoffs having scored in each of his past four games and has seen his target totals rise over that span, accounting for 23.8 percent of the team targets over the past month as opposed to 15.4 percent prior. Pair that opportunity with the upside that Stills brings to the table and you have potential for points as Stills was tied with Antonio Brown for the most touchdown receptions of 20 or more yards on the season with eight. The Steelers allowed just nine touchdowns to opposing wide receivers however, the second fewest outside of Denver at seven.
12. Sterling Shepard (@ GB): If the Packers allocate all of their resources to Beckham then Shepard could be a factor, but even if that doesn’t come to fruition there are worse players to chase a touchdown from. Shepard hasn’t had more than 61-yards in a game since Week 3, but he has scored in six of his past nine games while Green Bay has allowed eight touchdowns from the slot on the season while Shepard led the league in touchdowns from the slot with eight.
13. Eli Rogers (vs MIA): He’s been a solid floor play option, scoring 16, 11 and 9.1 points over the past three weeks with three of his four highest yardage totals of the season coming over those weeks. He’s only scored three times all season, but has been a reliable source of scoring for his required investment.
14. Randall Cobb (vs NYG): I’d love to paint a rosy picture for Cobb, but it’s hard. He’s missed the past two weeks with an ankle injury and prior to that hadn’t had more than four receptions in a game just once since Week 7. Still, if he’s active, he’s an Aaron Rodgers target and the Giants have been more vulnerable to interior receivers than ones on the perimeter, including allowing Cobb’s only 100-yard on the season when he caught nine passes for 108 yards when these teams met way back in Week 5.
15. Will Fuller (vs OAK): After having seven receptions of 20 or more yards through five weeks, Fuller has had just four since. But if a splash guy receiver is going to pop, there’s a good chance it will be against the Raiders. Oakland has allowed the most receptions of 20 or more yards in the league (61) and the most receptions (16) and receiving touchdowns of 40 or more yards (seven) in the league as well. A slight downer for Fuller is that he’s no longer returning punts, which would’ve given him extra intrigue this week as a stacking partner with the Houston defense.
16. DeVante Parker (vs PIT): Parker has been passed by Stills in the target food chain, but has had seven targets in each of the past two games to close the season.
17. Victor Cruz (@ GB): Cruz has had more than five targets in a game just once over his past seven games, but if you’re looking for a bottom rung priced option, Cruz runs 53 percent of his routes on the right side of the field where the Packers have been eviscerated by wideouts on the season.
18. Anquan Boldin (@ SEA): Boldin has hit 50-yards receiving just three times all season, but he has scored in eight games and leads the Lions with 22 red zone targets on the season. Seattle allowed just 10 red zone passing touchdowns on the season, the third fewest in the league.
19. Marvin Jones (@ SEA): Jones has had 16 targets the past two weeks, but has averaged 40.7 yards per game since Week 4 while scoring in the single digits in seven of his final eight games to close the season. The loss of Earl Thomas may open up a deep shot or two, but the Lions offense just isn’t geared to consistently attack teams vertically.
20. Geronimo Allison (vs NYG): If Cobb doesn’t play then Allison will move up the board as a cheap option for lineups as he’s had 10 receptions for 178 yards and two touchdowns in the three games that Cobb has been absent.
Final Tier: Jermaine Kearse, Andre Holmes, Andre Roberts, Paul Richardson, Dwayne Harris, Tanner McEvoy, Sammie Coates, Jakeem Grant, Demarcus Ayers, Cobi Hamilton, Keith Mumphery
Here’s your group of long plays and return men in hopes of chasing a score. Richardson had five and seven targets the past two weeks with Tyler Lockett injured. Andre Roberts returned two punts for touchdowns and was fourth in kickoff return yardage for those trying to fall into a lowly owned touchdown.
Tight Ends
1. Jimmy Graham (vs DET): It’s a weak group of tight ends here with Graham as a clear tier above the rest of the field. Graham’s highest targeted games have come with Tyler Lockett limited and the Lions allowed 10 touchdowns to opposing tight ends on the season, tied for the third most in the league.
2. Ladarius Green (vs MIA): Green missed the final two weeks with a concussion and has still yet to be officially cleared, but if available he offers upside in this field to at least rival Graham to a degree. Green averaged 16.9 yards per catch on his 18 receptions with seven receptions of 20 or more yards.
3. C.J. Fiedorowicz (vs OAK): Fiedorowicz isn’t overly exciting, as he hasn’t had double-digit scoring output since Week 11, but that was also the last time these teams played when he caught six of 10 targets for 82 yards. He also has had at least seven targets in nine of his past 11 games.
4. Jared Cook (vs NYG): Cook has hit double-digit scoring just twice all season, but Cook has had eight, five and eight targets over the past three weeks while the Giants faced 8.7 targets per game to opposing tight ends, the fifth most in the league while allowing 65.5 yards per game to the position, the fourth most.
5. Eric Ebron (@ SEA): He’s an option for pedestrian targets and yards, but Ebron’s last touchdown reception came in Week 1 and Seattle allowed just three touchdowns to opposing tight ends all season.
6. Will Tye (@ GB): Tye’s season-high for scoring was 8.2 points so I’d rather punt with one of the options below, but Green Bay was in the bottom-10 of targets (8.0), receptions (5.3) and yardage allowed (59.1) to opposing tight ends on the season.
Final Tier: Dion Sims, Luke Willson, Clive Walford, Richard Rodgers, Jesse James, Ryan Griffin, Xavier Grimble, Mychal Rivera
This is the group of guys where you’re just hoping they fall down in the end zone. Sims isn’t a terrible play for those only looking for a touchdown at the position as he had four touchdowns over the final four weeks of the season. Willson also scored twice over the final three weeks. James will get a slight boost if Green remains inactive, but is still in the touchdown or bust club.
Kickers
1. Mason Crosby
4. Robbie Gould
5. Nick Novak
6. Matt Prater
The Giants and the Dolphins were the only two teams playing this weekend that ranked in the bottom half of the league in field goal attempts allowed per game while Detroit, Oakland, Seattle and Houston all ranked inside of the top-10 with Green Bay 11th. That said I’m chasing strong passing games and potential points scored firsthand when selecting a kicking option.
DST
1. Houston Texans
2. Pittsburgh Steelers
3. Seattle Seahawks
4. Oakland Raiders
5. New York Giants
6. Green Bay Packers
7. Detroit Lions
8. Miami Dolphins
Houston being at home facing an Oakland team with the lowest implied team total of the week is sure to be the favorite play of the weekend, but the Raiders did allow the fewest sacks in the league this season…Houston has allowed eight or more points to eight different opposing defenses, but figure to play this game very closely and limit mistakes…Seattle is the most expensive defense on the board, but Detroit has allowed opposing defenses to score eight or more points just four times all season as their games feature a low amount of possessions weekly…The Steelers are in a good spot that should force a lot of point chasing that could lead to sack and turnover opportunities…The remaining offenses haven’t been a major target for big games allowed to opposing defenses, so we’re largely chasing potential game script outside of the top options.
