In this week’s Smash Mouth column, I wanted to take a look at four notable run-game situations with the season beginning in three days.
Buffalo Bills - On paper, I see a substantially more effective running game this year. Sure the Bills were second in the league in rushing yards per game, but they fell from 5.0 ypc in 2012 to 4.2 ypc last year. C Eric Wood is an emerging talent and Erik Pears moving from RT to RG will be a big help. The question about who gets the carries is something we are all wondering, but the Bills have three capable backs.
Percentage of Running Plays from Various QB Points
| Position | Percentage |
|---|---|
| Under Center | 51.50% |
| Shotgun | 48.20% |
| Pistol | 0.40% |
Editor’s Note: Rotoworld’s partner FanDuel is hosting a $1,000,000 Fantasy Football Contest for Week 1’s games. It’s only $25 to join and first prize is $100,000. Starts Sunday, September 7th at 1pm ET. Here’s the link.
New York Jets - There won’t be much of a difference between this year’s offensive line and last year’s save less power at RT, but more athleticism from the same position. Still, I have a funny feeling that Chris Johnson and Chris Ivory are going to have very effective years. Johnson’s natural inclination to bounce the ball outside could end up softening defenses up for bigger plays between the tackles for both running backs. The Jets are committed to running the ball and Johnson is headed for a solid fantasy season.
| Position | Percentage |
|---|---|
| Under Center | 44.00% |
| Shotgun | 46.70% |
| Pistol | 9.30% |
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Cincinnati Bengals - The Bengals running game got way too bogged down last year thanks to inconsistent guard play, and the plodding scheme that Jay Gruden seemed content with. Hue Jackson is the new offensive coordinator and, more importantly, BenJarvus Green-Ellis is out. Gio Bernard has the quicks to get through the holes that BJGE couldn’t and rookie Jeremy Hill has the downhill power (and surprising quickness) that perfectly complements what Bernard brings to the table. With safeties fearing A.J. Green, the Bengals will have to unbuckle their belts thanks to how full they will be from eating.
| Position | Percentage |
|---|---|
| Under Center | 77.90% |
| Shotgun | 20.60% |
| Pistol | 1.50% |
Baltimore Ravens - I will be absolutely shocked if the Baltimore Ravens don’t improve as much as 1.5 yards per carry from their 32nd place showing of 3.1 ypc in 2013. New offensive coordinator Gary Kubiak understands how to get a running game going with his outside zone scheme and with LG Kelechi Osemele healthy and Jeremy Zuttah taking over at center, this running game is poised to be among the top eight. Bernard Pierce is a better scheme fit than the newly tentative Ray Rice so don’t be surprised if the Ravens lean on Pierce more than Ray Rice owners would like.
| Position | Percentage |
|---|---|
| Under Center | 70.70% |
| Shotgun | 13.80% |
| Pistol | 15.50% |
*Run play percentages courtesy of STATS Ice
Why Gio Bernard Will Make Evan Silva Sad
I host a sports talk show in Houston and I will have Rotoworld’s Evan Silva on the show from time to time to talk fantasy football. A friend of mine is a listener and said he really wants me to challenge Evan on his thoughts regarding Giovani Bernard because Evan is down on him while I’m a huge proponent.
We have a saying, Evan. Don’t hate - congratulate.
I have Bernard ranked 5th amongst PPR backs and, quite frankly, I’m surprised that there are so many doubting Silvas out their throwing shade on Mr. Bernard. Is Jeremy Hill a concern as a TD vulture and legitimate hammer? Yes. Will it matter in terms of Gio Bernard’s PPR numbers? Not really.
I’ll readily admit that I have Bernard with the fewest TDs of my top 14 running backs in this year’s draft, but I believe you will see a much higher yards per carry number for him as well as a high catch total. The Bengals would like to incorporate more tempo into their offense which should mean more snaps. If you’ve watched Bernard run, you know that he’s a tough runner who has the ability to maximize yardage if given more snaps.
Jeremy Hill has too many owners running scared. He’s a good talent with fantasy value, but there are enough carries to go around in an offense that is expected to be more run-heavy this year. If you drafted Gio Bernard like I did, then congratulations. If you don’t live by the mantra of “real recognize real” or “game recognize game” like Mr. Evan Silva, then get ready to second guess yourself with projections for the new play-maker getting starter’s reps in Cincinnati.
