The Vic Fangio-led Broncos defense is a below-average unit on the year but is getting healthier and in two of their last three games, balled out, holding the Cowboys to 16 points and the Chargers to 13 points.
But yes, we know Patrick Mahomes is a different animal. True. So how did Fangio do against Mahomes last year?
Mahomes completed just 40 of 63 passes (63%) in 2 games vs the Broncos, throwing only 1 TD in each game, and was sacked 4 times total.
The first game last year was a blowout, but the Chiefs scored on a pick-6 plus a kickoff return TD. Mahomes had just 200 yards passing due to the fact they led by so many points, but the Chiefs had a total of just 286 yards on the day. For comparison, Denver had 411 total yards.
In that game, the Chiefs went 0-for-8 on third down.
They won the second meeting of the year as well, but this time by a score of only 22-16. With the game being closer, Mahomes was called on to pass the ball more. He threw it 40 times but completed just 25 for 318 yards (7.95 YPA).
In that game, the Chiefs went 3-for-10 on third down.
That’s a combined 3-for-18 on third downs vs Fangio’s defense in 2020.
In each game, Drew Lock threw 2 interceptions which helped the Chiefs tremendously. And in the first game, the Broncos lost two fumbles as well.
They were a combined -5 in turnover margin in the two games vs the Chiefs in 2020.
It should go without saying, but the 2020 Chiefs offense was having far more success in general than the 2021 version.
In 2019, the Super Bowl champs beat the Broncos, but only by scores of 30-6 and 23-3. Mahomes threw for 1 TD in one game and 2 TDs with 1 INT in the other.
In other words, even when Mahomes was in Super Bowl form and this offense was putting up 40 points on teams, they never were doing that offensively on Fangio’s defense.
So let’s recap.
Two common themes in the 2020 games:
1. TURNOVERS FOR DENVER - Denver was -5 in turnover margin in the two losses.
But in 2021, the Broncos quarterback isn’t Drew Lock, it’s Teddy Bridgewater. And instead of LEADING THE NFL in turnovers as they did in 2020 (with 32) and having the WORST TURNOVER DIFFERENTIAL IN THE NFL (with -16)…
…the 2021 Broncos have just 12 turnovers, which is FIFTH LOWEST of any team in the NFL. And they are +1 in turnover differential, which is ABOVE AVERAGE.
Additionally, the Chiefs are now the team with the turnover problem. Only the Jets have more turnovers than the Chiefs have so far this year (22) and the Chiefs are -7 in turnover differential, which is THIRD WORST ahead of only the Jets and Jaguars.
2. POOR PERFORMANCE FROM MAHOMES – In the first three quarters of games vs the Broncos last year, Mahomes had -0.02 EPA/att. His YPA was at 8.3, which was about his average on the season, but his success rate and his EPA/att were both below average.
And on third down or fourth down? Terrible. No defense was better vs Mahomes. He averaged -0.71 EPA/att and 2.6 YPA with just a 17% conversion rate when passing. Over the last two years combined, Mahomes is -0.21 EPA/att and just a 36% conversion rate vs Fangio in four games.
For comparison, the last two years combined (2019 and 2020), Mahomes in all games has +0.29 EPA/att on third/fourth downs with a 47% conversion rate. His performance has been considerably worse vs the Broncos.
Now, let’s look at this season.
Mahomes and the Chiefs offense has been even worse than it was in either of the last two years.
We talk about this offense “improving” the last couple of games, but those games came against defenses that ran a lot of Cover 3, which the Chiefs have done well against.
The architect of the Cover-2 shell that has been getting replicated by other defenses to limit Mahomes? Vic Fangio himself.
We’re still looking at a Chiefs offense that has topped 20 points just one time in their last 5 games.
Think about that – ONE GAME in the last five with over 20 points. It sounds insane for a Mahomes-led offense but that’s where this Chiefs team is right now.
That said, they are off a bye, so potentially they improved off the bye. Afterall, we hear so much about how great Andy Reid is off his bye.
But the reality is, Reid off of in-season byes with the Chiefs? Ehhhh.
Andy Reid is 6-1 SU in his games off a bye with the Chiefs and he’s 4-3 ATS. But he’s just 1-3 ATS the last four years and in total, his games have gone under 4-2-1 (67%).
And his last three bye weeks, he’s faced the Raiders all three years.
Is that anything super impressive? 1-3 ATS against primarily the Raiders and only 2 of 7 games off a bye going over the total? Doesn’t sound really impressive to me.
And since the start of this season, teams off a bye are 8-14 (36%) ATS and these games have gone under 16-6 (73%).
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There is enough fodder here to draw one overarching conclusion:
In this game vs Vic Fangio’s defense, it’s certainly realistic to predict that Patrick Mahomes may not have a perfect day and the Chiefs may not solve all their pre-bye issues, which saw the offense score over 20 points in just one of five games, and that was against a defense playing Cover 3.
So what about the Broncos?
Just look at what this team has done vs the Chiefs.
Since 2018, in six games, Denver is:
0-6 SU, losing by 11 ppg
2-3-1 ATS, failing to cover by 4.5 ppg
5-1 to the under, with games going under by an average of 6.2 ppg
Denver has scored less than their projected total in 5 of the 6 games, and are averaging just 14.5 ppg in these 6 games.
And that’s being generous going back to 2018, because in the last 4 meetings only, the Broncos are scoring only 10 ppg vs the Chiefs.
History aside, Steve Spagunolo’s defense has been incredible over the last month. They’ve held eveyr opponent to 17 points or less.
This Broncos offense may run the ball a bit and may have some success in doing so, as that is a weakness of the Chiefs defense, but that may only serve to chew clock and shorten the game further.
The bottom line here is I believe both team’s offensive efficiency will to be reduced as compared to expectation. And that bodes well for a lower scoring game than expected.
