The Kansas City Chiefs offense took a major detour midway through the season and instead of being the team that never punts (they score or turn the ball over) they’ve become the team that never scores.
Thru Week 6, the Kansas City Chiefs played the 5th toughest schedule of defenses in the NFL but led the NFL in drives that ended in touchdowns.
This team was scoring TDs on 40% of their drives and no other team was above 34%.
They had the lowest punt rate in the NFL.
They were scoring 31 ppg despite the turnovers, 5th best in the NFL
They converted first downs on first or second down at one of the highest rates in the NFL
Their only issue was turnovers.
That vanished in the game against the Titans in Week 7.
The last three weeks, the Chiefs are scoring touchdowns on only 9.7% of their drives, down from 40% the prior 6 weeks, ranking 4th worst in the NFL ahead of only the Panthers, Jaguars and Texans.
They are scoring points of any kind on only 25.8% of their drives, which ranks 5th worst in the NFL, ahead of only the Texans, Jaguars, Washington and Panthers.
The Chiefs are now punting on 38.7% of their drives, 8th most in the NFL, and over double the 17.5% they led the NFL with the first 6 weeks of the season.
Now, the Chiefs are playing better defenses than they did the first month of the season. But we’re talking defenses that rank #10, 15 and 16.
This week, they must face the #14 Raiders defense.
And it’s a defense that generates a ton of pressure despite having the lowest blitz rate in the NFL.
On early downs the Raiders have a 10% blitz rate, which is, by far, the lowest in the NFL. No other team is below 14% and the average is 22% blitz rate.
But the Raiders pressure the quarterback on 37% of his dropbacks. That is, by far, the highest in the NFL. No other team is above 34% and the average is 28%.
Most teams that have successfully slowed down the Chiefs over the last month have adjusted their defense to rarely blitz Patrick Mahomes and play a 2-high shell defense.
The Raiders don’t have to adjust the blitz rate element at all.
The closest team to where the Raiders sit with no-blitz, steady-pressure is the Titans, even though the Raiders are substantially better. And we saw what happened in that Titans game.
Tennessee held the Chiefs to only 3 points despite having a thoroughly devastated secondary.
I don’t think the Raiders schemes behind that pressure are nearly as good as the Titans, but there is a good chance the will be able to limit the efficiency of this passing attack.
The way you beat the Raiders is to run on them.
Last week, the Giants gained just 110 passing yards at 4.2 YPA and a 43% success rate when dropping back to throw the ball. But they stuck to the ground game, going 58% run on early downs in the first three quarters and gaining 5.0 YPC and 61% success on these runs.
It wasn’t a pretty win by any means, but the run game is what led the way.
It is hard to envision the Chiefs going that run heavy against the Raiders. They are still a pass-first team, even though they’ve lowered their pass rate substantially.
But what they’re doing is lowering their aDOT and trying to throw short - last week Mahomes threw for a season-low 4.5 yards per pass attempt, his fifth game with fewer than 6.0 Y/A over his past seven games played.
On the other side of the ball, the Chiefs defense absolutely has been improving. But there is some context to consider as well.
The Chiefs defense has allowed only 12 ppg the last two weeks and has made substantial strides over the last month.
On the season, they’re allowing 8.2 YPA and a 50% success rate passing (24th), but the last 4 weeks, that’s down to 6.7 YPA and 44% success (9th best).
On the season, they’re allowing 4.7 YPC and a 57% success rate rushing (30th), but the last 4 weeks, that’s down to 3.9 YPC and a 52% success rate (22nd).
They’ve improved their explosive pass defense from 26th to 15th and their explosive run defense from 18th to 4th.
However they have faced four offenses that aren’t anything to write home about including the QBs of: Taylor Heinicke, Daniel Jones, Jordan Love and Ryan Tannehill.
But they just added Melvin Ingram & he played 29 snaps last week while grading out as their best run defender via PFF and that allowed Chris Jones to kick back inside, and the run defense looked much better vs the Packers.
On early downs in the first three quarters, the Chiefs held the #12 Packers rushing attack to a 42% success rate on the ground. Now they go up against the Raiders #23 ranked run game that goes underused as the Raiders are the NFL’s #3 most pass-heavy offense.
So we’ll expect less rushing potentially and more passing and where the Chiefs may find themselves in trouble is explosive passing.
The Raiders offense ranks #4 in explosive pass rate despite playing the 5th toughest schedule of explosive pass defenses.
But the Chiefs defense ranks #28 vs explosive passes, allowing the 5th highest rate of passes to make explosive gains. They’re the worst defense vs explosive passes the Raiders have faced this year.
I already mentioned the QBs the Chiefs faced over the past month. These quarterbacks don’t operate explosive passing attacks. So facing the Raiders explosive pass attack should be a shock to the system of the Chiefs defense.
When the explosive passes result in third and medium or long, as sometimes deep shots on early downs tend to do, the Raiders at least are able to go up against the Chiefs 29th ranked third down defense.
The Chiefs have been treading water the last two weeks, frankly, being very lucky to beat Daniel Jones’ Giants and Jordan Love’s Packers, both at home. They didn’t win either game by even 7 points.
Against a better quarterback with a better defense and on the road, I imagine the Chiefs would feel exceedingly fortunate to fly home from Las Vegas with a win. It may be easier said than done.
