The NFL Week 7 Worksheet

Another week and another alpha fantasy performer lost for the season. With Aaron Rodgers potentially lost for the season, we’ve now arguably lost the best quarterback, running back and wide receiver for fantasy purposes. The ripple effects from the loss of Rodgers will be felt among many players, but the season doesn’t allow us to lick any wounds and keeps moving forward. We have just two teams on bye for Week 7, so make sure to get all of your players from Detroit and Houston out of lineups this week.

As for the token disclaimer, the goal of this article is to provide a top-down, statistical snapshot for each game each week, running down weekly point spreads, team totals, play calling splits, and statistical bullet points on the players and teams involved. Although we’re focusing strictly on PPR league scoring here as a baseline, there’s more than enough to spread around across formats and daily leagues. The reason we’re operating under a PPR umbrella is it allows us to cover a larger portion of the players involved in action weekly.

Lastly, as the author, it’s imperative that I note that this is NOT a start/sit column, rather an expectations column. The labels for each subset of players for each game are simply a vehicle for those expectations and have a different context for each player that you can find at the end of the column. I encourage that you use the game by game tables and data points here in conjunction with the Start/Sit column posted weekly by Nick Mensio, Pat Daugherty’s rankings in the Goal Line Stand, Evan Silva’s Matchup’s column, Ray Summerlin’s Waiver Wired and most importantly, your own information and thought process. Remember, you control your own team. With that out of the way, let’s hit all the Week 7 games with a PPR light…

Chiefs @ Raiders

Kansas City	Rank	@	Oakland	Rank
-3		Spread	3
25.0		Implied Total	22.0
29.5	3	Points/Gm	20.7	18
21.7	14	Points All./Gm	21.0	12
60.7	28	Plays/Gm	54.3	32
63.5	18	Opp. Plays/Gm	62.2	11
41.8%	16	Rush%	40.2%	23
58.2%	17	Pass%	59.8%	10
43.0%	21	Opp. Rush %	48.0%	31
57.0%	12	Opp. Pass %	52.0%	2

• Kareem Hunt is the first rookie ever to have at least 100-yards from scrimmage in each of the first six games of his career.
• Alex Smith has scored more than 15 points in eight consecutive games dating back to last year, the longest active streak in the league.
• Oakland has gone from 10th in the league in plays per game (65.7) in 2016 to last in the league to begin 2017.
• 63.9 percent of the completed passes against the Chiefs have gained 10 or more yards, the highest rate in the league.
• Just 33.7 percent of Derek Carr‘s completions have gained 10 or more yards, the second-lowest rate in the league behind Joe Flacco (31.6 percent).
• In six career games versus the Chiefs, Derek Carr has finished as the QB19, QB21, QB20, QB22, QB26 and QB29 with multiple touchdown passes in just one of those games.
• Michael Crabtree has been targeted on 29.4 percent of his routes, the third highest rate in the league behind Antonio Brown (31.4 percent) and Jarvis Landry (31.9 percent).
• Crabtree has been the WR27, WR35, WR63 and WR107 in his four games versus the Chiefs while in Oakland, catching a combined 14 passes for 110 yards with two touchdowns.
• Amari Cooper has hit 70-yards receiving once over his past 14 games played with a high of 76 yards over that span.
• Kansas City has allowed over 100-yards rushing in seven consecutive games dating back to last year, their longest streak since 2009.

Trust: Kareem Hunt (he hasn’t scored in three straight games and has still had one of the safest floors in fantasy due to the bed of yardage he’s consistently posted), Travis Kelce (the floor spots and forgetfulness of the Chiefs remembering he’s their best player keeps cropping up seemingly every other week, but the Raiders have allowed four top-10 tight ends through six games)

Bust: Derek Carr (playing through a back injury on a short week against a team/defensive scheme he’s yet to have tangible fantasy success against), Amari Cooper (I wouldn’t go to the depths of WR to replace him since he’s going to run just under two thirds of his routes away from Marcus Peters if you want to hold a candle or chase a rainbow in DFS, but we’ve had many “this is the week” spots along the way dating well back into last year), Jared Cook (he hasn’t hit 50-yards receiving since Week 1 with four games at TE24 or lower)

Reasonable Return: Alex Smith (would have no hesitation continuing to use him, but am keeping expectations in check as a short week, road option), Michael Crabtree (despite his lagging history versus the Chiefs while in Oakland, he also will run over half of his routes away from Peters and carries the ability to salvage any pedestrian game with a touchdown), Tyreek Hill (he’s been a WR2 or better in just half of his games, but we always knew he’d be a volatile option once his touchdown rates from last year stabilized. Has had four or more catches in every game), Marshawn Lynch (the Chiefs have been steadily run on to start the year, but you can only use Lynch as a flex option in hopes of a short score as his usage appears capped once he approaches 15 touches. He hasn’t had more than 13 touches in a game since Week 1)

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Ravens @ Vikings

Baltimore	Rank	@	Minnesota	Rank
5.5		Spread	-5.5
16.8		Implied Total	22.3
19.0	24	Points/Gm	20.3	19
20.7	11	Points All./Gm	17.2	5
64.2	12	Plays/Gm	64.2	13
65.7	26	Opp. Plays/Gm	61.3	9
46.5%	7	Rush%	44.9%	11
53.5%	26	Pass%	55.1%	22
50.5%	32	Opp. Rush %	39.7%	10
49.5%	1	Opp. Pass %	60.3%	23

• Jerick McKinnon has been a top-24 scoring back in seven straight games in which he’s played at least 50 percent of the team snaps and a top-5 scorer in three straight.
• McKinnon has 39 receptions over those seven games with five or more catches in six of those games.
• Just 7.3 percent (3-of-41) of Latavius Murray‘s carries have resulted in a first down --the lowest rate in the league -- while 26.2 percent (11-of-42) Jerick McKinnon‘s carries have resulted in a first down.
• With Brandon Williams active, the Ravens allowed 67.5 yards rushing per game to opposing backfields and zero touchdowns. With him inactive the past four games, they’ve allowed 153.5 yards rushing and four scores to backfields, with the lead rusher scoring 12 or more fantasy points in every game.
• Adam Thielen is one of three players (A.J. Green and Jarvis Landry) to have at least five receptions in every game this season.
• Baltimore is averaging 24.0 yards per possession, last in the league.
• Alex Collins has the most rushing attempts (52) without a single red zone carry on the season.
• Joe Flacco has completed 5-of-22 passes (22.7 percent) 15 yards or further downfield, the lowest rate in the league.

Trust: Jerick McKinnon (he’s had 22 and 21 touches since the loss of Dalvin Cook and has shown a ceiling and floor dating back into last year and should be started even with Williams returning for Baltimore), Adam Thielen (he received a season-high 34 percent of the team targets last week with Diggs inactive and playing in the slot allows him favorable matchups and a safety net of receptions even though the overall matchup is tougher than a week ago)

Bust: Joe Flacco (it’s arguable that he’s been the worst quarterback to start all season so far visiting one of the best defenses on the road), Alex Collins (the 6.4 yards per carry have been nice, but he still has no receptions nor has he gotten any use in the red zone), Mike Wallace/Jeremy Maclin (at best, you’re looking at flex options, but considering how Flacco has played and how the Vikings’ defense has, this is a spot to leave them on benches), Case Keenum (he’s still been in the bottom half of weekly scoring in every week but one), Latavius Murray (looking like you’re free to let him go back to waivers with McKinnon converting near the goal line last week, the last hope you had if rostering him)

Reasonable Return: Buck Allen (a flex floor option, he’s been a top-30 scorer in each of the past three games), Kyle Rudolph (he has 18 targets over the past two weeks after 15 through the opening month and Baltimore has allowed five touchdowns to opposing tight ends)

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Saints @ Packers

New Orleans	Rank	@	Green Bay	Rank
-6		Spread	6
26.8		Implied Total	20.8
29.0	4	Points/Gm	24.5	10
23.2	21	Points All./Gm	22.5	18
63.4	18	Plays/Gm	63.8	14
63.4	17	Opp. Plays/Gm	62.2	13
41.0%	21	Rush%	34.7%	29
59.0%	12	Pass%	65.3%	4
36.9%	4	Opp. Rush %	46.4%	29
63.1%	29	Opp. Pass %	53.6%	4

• When Aaron Rodgers last missed multiple games in 2013, the Packers scored 21.7 points per game in seven games without him starting as opposed to 29.4 points per game with him active.
• Over those seven games, Jordy Nelson was a top-24 scoring wide receiver just twice, catching 33 passes for 458 yards with one touchdown.
• 40 percent of Nelson’s fantasy points have come from touchdowns, the highest dependency for any top-36 scoring wide receiver on the season.
• 32.6 percent of Davante Adams’ scoring has come from touchdown production, the fourth highest rate from the same group.
• Brett Hundley has targeted Adams on 29.4 percent of his throws, Nelson on 26.5 percent and Randall Cobb on just 8.8 percent.
• Cobb’s target per route rate per game so far: 27.3 percent, 23.1 percent, 20 percent, 12.5 percent, 8.6 percent.
• Drew Brees has thrown for fewer than 300-yards in three straight games, just the fourth time that has happened since 2010.
• After trailing by two or more possessions for 70.5 percent of their snaps over the first two weeks (highest in the league), the Saints have led by two or more possessions on 50.3 percent of their plays since, the highest rate in the league.
• Over that span, the Saints have run the ball on 47.2 percent of their plays, ninth in the league.
• 96 percent of Alvin Kamara‘s carries have gained positive yardage while Mark Ingram has gained yardage on 88.1 percent of his carries, which rank first and fifth in the league for running backs.

Trust: Mark Ingram (his touches have gone up every game and has caught four or more passes in every game but one), Michael Thomas (last week was the first time he’s ever been held to fewer than eight points in a game for his career but should bounce back against a banged up Green Bay secondary that has allowed six top-20 scoring receivers and a WR1 in three of their past four games)

Bust: Martellus Bennett (he has no games with double-digit points and now that Rodgers is out, you can finally set him free if you haven’t yet), Randall Cobb (the ancillary receivers take the biggest hit going to Hundley and Cobb has been a declining asset himself to start the season), Coby Fleener (six targets over the past three games as he’s all but been phased out), Aaron Jones/Ty Montgomery (the timeshare is problematic as Jones was RB45 and Montgomery RB48 last week, but if you need to play someone here, I would side with Montgomery with the Saints allowing 7.4 receptions per game to opposing backfields, the most in the league), Willie Snead (despite the Packers secondary, he played just 21 snaps and ran just nine routes in his first game back. You need more than that to have faith setting him in lineups)

Reasonable Return: Drew Brees (with the loss of Rodgers, this game loses some shootout appeal and if the Saints can control the game like they have over their past three, Brees hasn’t hit those ceiling weeks in those conditions), Alvin Kamara (his rushing opportunity has grown in three straight games and he has double-digit points in every one of those games), Jordy Nelson/Davante Adams (two players whose ceilings were living off touchdown production now have that compromised. No matter how much you believe in Hundley or not, relegating each to WR2 status until we see Hundley provide something we can latch onto), Ted Ginn (he doesn’t have more than four catches in any game and you know why you’re using him if you are, but this a matchup where you can take a swing on a splash play), Brett Hundley (he makes for an intriguing punt on daily sites given his price, but the Saints have been good enough defensively to keep him in the high-QB2 range for seasonal leagues)

Jets @ Dolphins

NY Jets	Rank	@	Miami	Rank
3		Spread	-3
17.8		Implied Total	20.8
18.2	26	Points/Gm	12.2	32
21.7	13	Points All./Gm	16.8	3
60.3	29	Plays/Gm	60.2	30
66.3	29	Opp. Plays/Gm	59.4	3
40.9%	22	Rush%	41.2%	19
59.1%	11	Pass%	58.8%	14
45.5%	26	Opp. Rush %	38.7%	8
54.5%	7	Opp. Pass %	61.3%	25

• Both the Jets and Dolphins are the only teams in the NFL that have yet to score more than two touchdowns in any game this season.
• Miami is one of two teams (Buffalo) that has yet to allow more than 20 points in a game this season.
• The Dolphins are the only team in the league without a rushing touchdown yet on the season.
• Jay Ajayi has 82.3 percent of the Miami rushing attempts, the highest percentage of a team’s carries for a running back.
• Ajayi averages .78 points per target in the passing game, dead last of all 51 running backs with double-digit targets on the season.
• Jarvis Landry is the only wide receiver to have double-digit points in every game this season.
• Matt Forte returned to lead the Jets in backfield snaps (44) and touches (17).
• Since returning from suspension, Austin Seferian-Jenkins has the second-most targets (29) and the most receptions (23) of all tight ends, but ranks 10th in receiving yardage as his 6.6 yards per catch is ahead of only Ben Watson (5.3 yards) over that span.
• Opposing teams are targeting their tight ends 27.7 percent of the time versus the Dolphins, the third highest rate in the league.

Bust: Jay Cutler (he hasn’t finished higher than QB18 yet on the season), Josh McCown (he’s been efficient to start the year, completing two thirds of his passes in every game, but the only time he was a QB1 was last week in a game where he threw a season-high 47 passes against the worst secondary in the league), Robby Anderson (he’s essentially Ted Ginn with higher volume if you want to chase a home run from a far worse offensive climate than a player like Ginn has), Matt Forte (with Bilal Powell back this week, then stay clear of this entire situation outside of desperation, but if you have to look for a desperation play, Forte has been a top-20 scorer in his past three full games)

Reasonable Return: Jay Ajayi (he’s getting such a high amount of opportunities that he’s hard to completely bench, but has also had such a low floor that he’s hard to go all in on. This should go better than his 11 carry, 16 yard performance visiting the Jets in Week 2 since the Jets have allowed seven top-24 backs so far), Jarvis Landry (he’s caught touchdowns in back-to-back games for the first time since 2014 and has been lower than a WR3 in just one game on the season), Austin Seferian-Jenkins (he’s been the Jarvis Landry of tight ends so far and teams are targeting their tight ends against Miami), Jermaine Kearse (I keep waiting for him to go away, but he’s just not as he’s been a top-30 scorer now in four of six games)

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Panthers @ Bears

Carolina	Rank	@	Chicago	Rank
-3		Spread	3
21.8		Implied Total	18.8
21.3	17	Points/Gm	17.5	28
20.3	10	Points All./Gm	24.7	25
65.2	10	Plays/Gm	63.7	17
57.5	1	Opp. Plays/Gm	61.8	10
43.5%	12	Rush%	48.7%	3
56.5%	21	Pass%	51.3%	30
36.5%	3	Opp. Rush %	41.8%	17
63.5%	30	Opp. Pass %	58.2%	16

• The 13.1 rushing points scored by Cam Newton last week were the most he’s posted since Week 2, 2015.
• Christian McCaffrey leads all running backs with 24.5 percent of the Carolina team targets. The last running back to have a target share over 24 percent in a season was LaDainian Tomlinson in 2003.
• 90.3 percent of McCaffrey’s output has stemmed from receiving, the highest rate of any back currently in the top-12 in overall scoring on the season. The rest of the group has an average rate of 42.9 percent.
• McCaffrey’s 78.3 receiving points would put him at WR17 on the season.
• The 54 rushing attempts by Chicago last week were the most a team since Houston in Week 11, 2014 and the most by a Chicago team since Week 1, 1988.
• Jordan Howard‘s 36 carries in that game were the most by a Bears’ running back since James Allen carried 37 times (for just 97 yards) in 2000.
• Carolina is allowing 66 rushing yards per game to opposing backfields, tied for the third in the league.
• Mitchell Trubisky has targeted tight ends on 42.5 percent of his throws, wide receivers on 35 percent, and running backs on 22.5 percent.

Bust: Mitchell Trubisky (he’s been nursed along to start with QB21 and QB23 weeks while facing another tough defense on the road this week), CHI WRs (a weekly staple here), Zach Miller (he’s scored on a tipped pass and a trick play in each of the past two weeks while he hasn’t hit 50-yards in any game this season), Ed Dickson (his targets have gone up in three straight games, but has been higher than TE17 just once so far), Tarik Cohen (with Benny Cunningham’s injured hamstring, he had 15 touches, but only one was a reception. If Cunningham is inactive, Cohen becomes a lower-end flex option with Chicago expected to have more negative game script this week), Jonathan Stewart (you know the drill by now, touchdown or nothing)

Reasonable Return: Cam Newton (he’s been a top-5 scorer in each of his past three games, but I would treat him as a lower QB1 this week coming in as this game sets up to be a grinding type of game like the line suggests given the style of both offenses and the Bears have allowed just one passer to clear 235 passing yards), Jordan Howard (even with Luke Keuchly out, the matchup isn’t in his corner, but his volume always keep him play as Chicago will lean on him for as long as they can weekly), Christian McCaffrey (his highest volume games have come in the games in which Carolina has trailed throughout, which may not be the case here, but his floor has been as reliable there is), Kelvin Benjamin (he’s been a WR2 or higher in each of his past four full games, averaging 15.7 points per game with 23-338-1 receiving but is dealing with a knee injury that forced him to be limited all week), Devin Funchess (last week was a hard reminder that his weekly floor is still low if he fails to score a touchdown, but he still had nine targets, his average over the past five games)

Cardinals @ Rams (in London)

Arizona	Rank	@	LA Rams	Rank
3.5		Spread	-3.5
22.0		Implied Total	25.5
19.8	21	Points/Gm	29.8	1
26.3	28	Points All./Gm	23.0	20
67.5	2	Plays/Gm	61.3	26
65.2	24	Opp. Plays/Gm	64.7	21
33.3%	32	Rush%	46.7%	6
66.7%	1	Pass%	53.3%	27
41.7%	15	Opp. Rush %	44.9%	25
58.3%	18	Opp. Pass %	55.2%	8

• 42.3 percent (11-of-26) of Adrian Peterson‘s carries last week went for five or more yards. Entering the game, just 23 percent (23-of-100) of Arizona’s rushing attempts had gained five or more yards for the season.
• Peterson had four carries of 10 or more yards, which were two more than Arizona running backs had through five weeks.
• The Rams have allowed five top-12 scoring running backs, the most in the league and are allowing 19.2 rushing points per game, the most in the league.
• Just two of Andre Ellington‘s 41 targets this season have come when Arizona has had the lead.
• Larry Fitzgerald needs only four receptions to surpass Jerry Rice for the most receptions (166) by any player versus the Rams franchise for a career.
• After scoring on a league-leading 61.9 percent (26-of-42) of their drives through four weeks, the Rams have scored on 26.1 percent (6-of-23) possessions the past two weeks (27th).
• After throwing for 9.1 yards per attempt through four weeks (first in the league), Jared Goff has passed for 6.1 yards per attempt over the past two weeks (25th).
• Todd Gurley is averaging 127.7 yards from scrimmage per game, second in the league. Arizona is allowing yards 107.7 from scrimmage per game to opposing backfields, fourth in the league.

Trust: Adrian Peterson (without going too overboard on him being the same player as old because of one week, the opportunity he runs into is ideal for his matchup this week against a Rams’ team hemorrhaging points to opposing backs), Todd Gurley (he has just five targets over the past two weeks after averaging six per game for the opening month, which has lowered his output a touch, but he’s had just one game with fewer than 96 yards from scrimmage)

Bust: Andre Ellington (it’s unlikely that he gets zeroed out again as last week’s game script was extremely one-sided, but what that game did highlight is that we must peg the game script to be able to use him going forward, something that isn’t necessary to do with a player that was a floor option to begin with), John Brown (he’s scored in each of the past two games, which has elevated his lines, but has yet to have more than four catches in a game nor has hit 70-yards, while the Rams have allowed just three top-20 wide receivers on the season), Sammy Watkins (has reeled in just 2-of-10 targets over the past three weeks and will contend with Patrick Peterson), Cooper Kupp (slot receivers have had success versus Arizona, but the issue with Kupp is the volume just isn’t there for the archetype of fantasy producer he is. He has three or fewer catches in four games with a season-high of five)

Reasonable Return: Jared Goff (he’s had two down weeks in a row and has been a QB1 just once, but Arizona hasn’t been a defense to completely avoid for passers, allowing 20 or more points to four quarterbacks so far), Carson Palmer (with Peterson running hot last week, Palmer attempted a season-low 22 passes, but had his best fantasy week of the season. While we can’t count on him being ultra-efficient and another QB4 week, he has had 15 or more points in every game since Week 1), Larry Fitzgerald (he has double-digit targets in four games this year, tied for second in the league, and has finished outside of the top-30 just once), Robert Woods (he’s quietly developed as the most stable Rams’ wide receiver, posting double-digit points in three of his past four games and benefits the most from Watkins continuing to draw the opposition’s best cover option)

Buccaneers @ Bills

Tampa Bay	Rank	@	Buffalo	Rank
n/a		Spread	n/a
n/a		Implied Total	n/a
23.6	13	Points/Gm	17.8	27
24.2	22	Points All./Gm	14.8	1
62.4	20	Plays/Gm	62.4	21
66.8	30	Opp. Plays/Gm	64.6	20
34.3%	31	Rush%	50.6%	2
65.7%	2	Pass%	49.4%	31
41.6%	14	Opp. Rush %	37.8%	7
58.4%	19	Opp. Pass %	62.2%	26

• Tampa Bay has allowed a touchdown on 26.9 percent of their opponent’s drives (31st) while Buffalo has scored a touchdown 13.2 percent of their possessions (31st).
• On defense, Buffalo has allowed a touchdown on just 11.1 percent (6-of-54) of opponent drives, the lowest rate in the league.
• The Bills are the only team that has yet to score a touchdown from outside of the red zone this season.
• Buffalo has thrown on 29 percent of their plays with a lead, the lowest rate in the league. League average is 47.8 percent.
• LeSean McCoy has the most fantasy points without a touchdown on the season and is one of just two top-24 scorers (James White) on the season without a score.
• 26.7 percent (8-of-30) of Cameron Brate‘s targets have come from inside of the red zone, the highest rate in the league for all players with 20 or more targets on the season.
• Zay Jones has reeled in just 22 percent (5-of-22) of his targets on the season, the lowest rate for all wide receivers with at least 20 targets on the season.

Trust: LeSean McCoy (he’s all the Bills have on offense and is averaging what would be a career-high 5.4 receptions per game while the Buccaneers run defense is coming off resurrecting the ghost of Adrian Peterson), Mike Evans (he’s played a brutal schedule and still is the WR9 in points per game, while Buffalo has allowed 6-98 to Demaryius Thomas and 7-198-1 to A.J. Green over their past three games)

Bust: Jameis Winston (playing through a shoulder injury, this is not a good spot on the road against a defense that has yet to allow a passer to finish higher than QB15 on the season), DeSean Jackson (he’s gone over 40-yards receiving just twice and hasn’t had 20 percent of the team targets in a game since the season opener)

Reasonable Return: Tyrod Taylor (Tampa Bay has allowed a top-5 quarterback in three of their past four games, but Taylor hasn’t finished in the top half of quarterback scoring since Week 1 since the Bills have almost nothing outside of McCoy on offense), Doug Martin (he’s been the RB16 and RB11 while Tampa Bay has played through negative game scripts in each of those games), Cameron Brate (the Bills have yet to allow a tight end to finish higher than TE12 on the year, but you’re playing Brate because he’s one of the best touchdown producers at a limited position), Jordan Matthews (cleared to practice today, if he’s cleared to play then he’s in the best spot given Tampa Bay’s vulnerability to the slot and the absence of Charles Clay), Nick O’Leary (he turned six targets into five catches for 54 yards coming in for Charles Clay in Week 5 if you need to go deep into the well for a streamer)

Jaguars @ Colts

Jacksonville	Rank	@	Indianapolis	Rank
-3		Spread	3
23.0		Implied Total	20.0
26.0	8	Points/Gm	19.8	20
18.3	7	Points All./Gm	32.5	32
63.8	15	Plays/Gm	61.5	24
64.8	22	Opp. Plays/Gm	66.2	27
52.5%	1	Rush%	45.8%	9
47.5%	32	Pass%	54.2%	24
43.2%	22	Opp. Rush %	42.3%	19
56.8%	11	Opp. Pass %	57.7%	14

• Leonard Fournette is the third rookie ever to score in each of his first six games played, joining Karlos Williams in 2015 and Robert Edwards in 1998.
• Fournette is the first Jacksonville running back to score in six straight games since Maurice Jones-Drew in 2006, who scored in eight consecutive games.
• Fournette leads the league with 15.9 rushing points per game.
• 49.4 percent of the yardage gained by Jacksonville has been on the ground, the highest rate in the league.
• 46.7 percent of the yardage allowed by Jacksonville has been on the ground, the highest rate in the league.
• The Jaguars have allowed just one receiving touchdown on 116 targets to opposing wide receivers. League average outside of Jacksonville is allowing a touchdown once every 25.8 targets to opposing wideouts.

Bust: Jacoby Brissett (the highest a quarterback has finished against Jacksonville so far is QB19), T.Y. Hilton (he has two games higher than WR45 and they both came in extremely soft spots at home. While this one is on his home turf, the matchup couldn’t be worse), Jack Doyle (coming off a season-high 11 targets, the Jaguars have allowed just one opposing tight end to hit 50-yards in a game and none to catch more than four passes), Marlon Mack (we’re still in a holding period with Mack as he went all the way down to two touches last week,but with Robert Turbin out, his role should expand)

Reasonable Return:Leonard Fournette (Fournette’s workload and touchdown upside has carried him to 14 or more points in every game thus far, but a late game ankle injury has kept him on the shelf all week, putting his status for the game in jeopardy. If he’s active, you start him, but with less than ceiling expectations), Frank Gore (he’s been at least flex worthy in every game since Week 1 while the Jaguars are allowing a league-high 5.4 yards per carry to backfields), Blake Bortles (he hasn’t been asked to do much so far this year, but the Colts have been as consistent as they come allowing points to passers, with no passer finishing lower than QB14 versus them in any game this season including DeShone Kizer, Brian Hoyer and Jared Goff), Marqise Lee (he’s the only one you can entertain as a low-level flex if expecting Bortles to be solid as averages 23.5 percent of the team targets per game), Chris Ivory (if Fournette is inactive, he would assume the bulk of rushing opportunity in a spot where Jacksonville should be able to have rushing volume, but the Colts have allowed just once back to clear 52 yards on the ground in a game this year,)

Titans @ Browns

Tennessee	Rank	@	Cleveland	Rank
-5.5		Spread	5.5
25.8		Implied Total	20.3
24.3	11	Points/Gm	15.7	31
27.3	31	Points All./Gm	26.2	27
60.0	31	Plays/Gm	65.2	11
65.0	23	Opp. Plays/Gm	60.3	6
45.8%	8	Rush%	35.6%	28
54.2%	25	Pass%	64.5%	5
43.3%	23	Opp. Rush %	45.9%	27
56.7%	10	Opp. Pass %	54.1%	6

• Cleveland has scored on 19.4 percent (14-of-72) of their possessions this season, the fewest in the league.
• The Browns 16 turnovers are the most in the league and the most they’ve had through six games since 2009.
• The Browns have trailed by two or more possessions on 49.5 percent of their offensive snaps, the highest rate in the league.
• Just 9.3 percent of the pass attempts against the Browns have been throws 15 yards or further downfield, the lowest rate in the league.
• 20.2 percent of Marcus Mariota‘s completions have come on throws 15 yards or further downfield, the highest rate in the league.
• Mariota has completed just 4-of-13 passes (30.8 percent) in the red zone, the lowest rate in the league.
• Derrick Henry played a season-high 57 percent of the snaps in Week 6, handling a season-high 55.9 percent of the team rushing attempts. Besting previous highs of 44 percent of the snaps and 38.9 percent of the team carries.

Trust: Marcus Mariota (his legs are out of the equation still given what we witnessed Monday Night, but his arm is all that’s required against a Cleveland team allowing the most passing points per attempt and highest touchdown rate to quarterbacks this season), Delanie Walker (he hasn’t been inside of the top-20 in three games, but the Browns are a timely slumpbuster. Cleveland has allowed double-digit points to five different tight ends and the most receptions on the season to the position)

Bust: DeShone Kizer (he’s in play in DFS for rushing upside, and while Tennessee has been miserable against the pass, they have not elevated bad passers for fantasy, holding all of Blake Bortles, Jay Cutler and Jacoby Brissett to subpar weeks), Isaiah Crowell (he’s posted new season-highs in yardage in each of the past two games, but still hasn’t scored double-digit points in a game since Week 1)

Reasonable Return: DeMarco Murray/Derrick Henry (the split here has come and gone as Murray is still dealing with ongoing hamstring issues, but he also had 16 touches for 87 yards and a touchdown on Monday. I would treat both as lower-RB2 options and Henry to push for lead touches with Tennessee on bye next week, but in a similar spot like this earlier in the year, Murray ended up out-snapping Henry. Cleveland is allowing just 3.1 yards per carry, third in the league, which is impressive considering the positive game script their opponents continuously play in), Duke Johnson (we knew he was going to stop scoring touchdowns, but is still a floor flex option), Ricardo Louis (he was negated by Jonathan Joseph last week, but still was tied for the team targets while the Titans have allowed eight top-24 receivers), Eric Decker/Rishard Matthews (Jason McCourty has only shadowed elite options so far, so it’s hard to see either Tennessee wide receiver being a pressing concern to draw his attention. If the game is played straight up, Matthews would stand to draw McCourty on 40 percent of his routes while Decker just 30 percent, leaving both ample opportunity to contribute elsewhere in a matchup inwhich we’re high on their quarterback)

Cowboys @ 49ers

Dallas	Rank	@	San Francisco	Rank
-6		Spread	6
26.5		Implied Total	20.5
25.0	9	Points/Gm	18.8	25
26.4	29	Points All./Gm	24.3	23
63.8	16	Plays/Gm	65.8	7
65.4	25	Opp. Plays/Gm	70.8	32
41.7%	17	Rush%	34.4%	30
58.3%	16	Pass%	65.6%	3
39.1%	9	Opp. Rush %	46.4%	28
60.9%	24	Opp. Pass %	53.7%	5

• Dallas has scored a touchdown on 66.7 percent (12-of-18) of their red zone possessions, second in the league.
• Opponents have run 8.5 percent of their plays from inside of the 10-yard line versus the 49ers, the highest rate in the league.
• Dallas allows 3.6 red zone possessions per game, 27th in the league.
• The 49ers have run 7.85 percent of their plays from inside of the opponent’s 10-yard line, the third highest rate in the league behind New Orleans (7.89 percent) and New England (7.96 percent).
• Carlos Hyde leads the league with 10 rushing attempts from inside of the 5-yard line.
• After playing a season-low 46 percent of the snaps in Week 5, Hyde played 78 percent in Week 6, his highest rate since Week 2.
• C.J. Beathard’s target dispersal after entering last week’s game was: Pierre Garcon (8), George Kittle (7), Carlos Hyde (6), Matt Breida (4), Trent Taylor (4), Aldrick Robinson (3, Marquise Goodwin (3), Garrett Celek (1).

Trust: Dak Prescott (he has scored at least 15 points in every game and 20 or more in three straight while San Francisco has allowed 20.2 points per game to opposing quarterbacks over their past five games), Dez Bryant (he’s scored in three of his past four games and has been a top-20 scorer in each of those games with a score while the 49ers have struggled to defend boundary receivers), Carlos Hyde (his benching was short-lived and he’s now been a top-20 scorer in every game on the season outside of that Week 5 game while Dallas has allowed the RB1, RB2 and RB4 in three of their past four games sandwiched around facing Chris Johnson), Ezekiel Elliott (he lives to play at least another week and it’s a great spot as . San Francisco has allowed seven top-24 scoring backs, tied for the most in the league and they face a league-high 33.7 running back touches per game)

Bust: Jason Witten (a naturally low ceiling play, no tight end has finished higher than TE20 versus San Francisco nor has one even reached eight points in a game), George Kittle (he’s now had 17 targets over the past two weeks and working with his collegiate quarterback if you want to chase the volume as a streaming option, but Dallas has yet to allow a TE1 on the season and are expected to get Sean Lee back)

Reasonable Return: C.J. Beathard (he scored 13 points in constant catch-up mode last week, but can be a mid-level QB2 option against a Dallas defense that has allowed multiple touchdown passes in each of their past four games), Pierre Garcon (he’s been a WR3 or better in every game outside of the ones in which he’s locked up with an elite corner, which isn’t the case here)

Bengals @ Steelers

Cincinnati	Rank	@	Pittsburgh	Rank
5.5		Spread	-5.5
17.8		Implied Total	23.3
16.8	30	Points/Gm	19.7	22
16.6	2	Points All./Gm	17.0	4
61.4	25	Plays/Gm	65.8	6
63.0	14	Opp. Plays/Gm	59.5	4
43.3%	13	Rush%	41.8%	15
56.7%	20	Pass%	58.2%	18
42.9%	20	Opp. Rush %	42.0%	18
57.1%	13	Opp. Pass %	58.0%	15

• Le’Veon Bell had seven runs of 10 or more yards last week after having nine such runs combined through five weeks.
• Cincinnati is allowing 5.6 yards per pass attempts (first) while Pittsburgh is allowing 5.7 yards per attempt (second).
• Just 26.9 percent of the completed passes against the Bengals have gained at least 10 yards, the lowest rate in the league. League averaged is 45.6 percent.
• Ben Roethlisberger‘s average scoring rank is QB18 over his past 10 games versus Cincinnati, with just three top-12 scoring weeks and throwing multiple touchdowns just three times.
• Antonio Brown has been a top-12 scoring wide receiver in just one of those 10 games, but outside of the top-24 just three times.
• Andy Dalton has been a QB1 just once in 12 career games versus Pittsburgh, throwing 13 touchdowns to 12 interceptions.
• The Bengals have run just nine plays from inside of the opponent’s 10-yard line, the fewest in the league.

Trust: Le’Veon Bell (after scoring 20.8 points over the first two weeks, Bell has scored 19.3 or more in each of the past four games, averaging 30 touches per game over that span), Antonio Brown (he’s the only receiver with at least 30 percent of the team targets in every game this season and while the Bengals have limited him in previous matchups, his floor has been strong in those games and Cincinnati doesn’t have an individual defender that you’re concerned with now that Adam Jones will miss this game)

Bust: Ben Roethlisberger (his own play has been subpar and the schedule has done him absolutely no favors, but this is another spot where it’s hard to believe that he gets on track against a defensive scheme that has consistently limited his fantasy output), Martavis Bryant (he ran a season-low 18 routes last week and no matter what you believe about the rumors with him and the franchise, has been usable for fantasy in just one game so far), Juju Smith-Schuster (he’s been unusable outside of the two games in which he found the end zone as his share of the team targets just isn’t large enough to warrant stability), Andy Dalton (he’s been better under Bill Lazor, but still just a QB1 in one of those three games while his history versus the Steelers and the performance of the Pittsburgh pass defense so far is enough to keep him in QB2 territory), Giovani Bernard (he’s more of just a thorn in Mixon’s side as he hasn’t had more than eight touches in any game on the season)

Reasonable Return: A.J. Green (like Brown, he has a history of not hitting his apex for fantasy often between these common opponents, scoring as a WR1 in just one of his past five in Pittsburgh, but has been worse than a WR2 just once in those meetings), Joe Mixon (he has 57 touches over the past three games, but has still floated in RB2 territory as RB19, RB37 and RB22 those weeks since he’s still sharing receiving work and the Bengals offensive line isn’t generating major space for him to work with)

Seahawks @ Giants

Seattle	Rank	@	NY Giants	Rank
-6		Spread	6
22.3		Implied Total	16.3
22.0	15	Points/Gm	17.5	29
17.4	6	Points All./Gm	22.0	17
65.4	8	Plays/Gm	61.5	23
63.4	16	Opp. Plays/Gm	68.3	31
41.3%	18	Rush%	35.8%	26
58.7%	15	Pass%	64.2%	7
40.7%	13	Opp. Rush %	41.7%	16
59.3%	20	Opp. Pass %	58.3%	17

• Opponents have run just four plays from inside of the 10-yard versus Seattle, the fewest in the league.
• Just 8.6 percent of Eli Manning‘s pass attempts have come from inside of the red zone, ahead of only Jay Cutler (7.9 percent) for quarterbacks that have started all season.
• The 19 pass attempts by Manning last week where the fewest he’s had in a full game since Week 16, 2007.
• Evan Engram was targeted on a season-high 33.3 percent of his routes last week.
• Engram’s 24 receptions rank fourth all-time for a tight end over the first six games of their career.
• Orleans Darkwa has seven carries of 10 or more yards over the past two weeks, tied for second in the league.
• Seattle has thrown 72.9 percent of their plays in the red zone, the highest rate in the league.
• Jimmy Graham is running a pass route on 66.9 percent of his routes, the second-highest rate for all tight ends with over 200 snaps played on the season.
• The Giants are facing the most targets per game (9.3) to opposing tight ends and have allowed the most touchdowns (seven) while allowing the second-most receiving yards (72) and receptions (6.3) per game to the position.
• After allowing a league-low two top-12 scoring quarterbacks in 2016, the Giants have allowed four to start this season.

Trust: Jimmy Graham (after catching just four passes for nine yards over the first two weeks, Graham has been a TE1 in his three games since while drawing a Giants defense that has allowed a tight end to score every week of the season)

Bust: Doug Baldwin (he’s had one week higher than WR39 on the season and will draw a returning Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie in the slot), Paul Richardson (when on the outside, he’ll line up the most often against Janoris Jenkins), Eli Manning (doubtful that the Giants pull of such an ultra-conservative game plan to perfection again versus one the league’s best pass defenses), Giants WRs (they combined for two catches last week while facing a secondary allowing just 6.1 yards per target to the position, fourth in the league), Wayne Gallman (he’s the clear second option in terms of opportunity on an offense that isn’t expected to do a lot), SEA RBs (until they figure this out, no one is playable for fantasy outside of blind faith. Neither Eddie Lacy nor Thomas Rawls have finished inside of the top-40 in any game played and the return of C.J. Prosise compromises the role of J.D. McKissic)

Reasonable Return: Russell Wilson (Wilson has been an extremely mixed bag to date and while the Giants defense has been vulnerable this season compared to last year, it’s hard to go all in on him on the road against a team that can rush the passer), Tyler Lockett (he gets the best individual matchup on the perimeter, but is still only a WR3/flex play), Evan Engram (Seattle has limited opposing tight ends so far, but with his market share and the landscape of the tight end position, you just keep riding the opportunity), Orleans Darkwa (he’s run hot in each of the past two weeks while New York is going to try to slow the game down and Seattle’s offense may allow that happen, but offers little bonus through the air), Shane Vereen (a deeper flex option for those looking for anything as this game sets up to involve him, but he’s tethered to specific game script, which would in turn hurt Darkwa)

Broncos @ Chargers

Denver	Rank	@	LA Chargers	Rank
1.5		Spread	-1.5
20.3		Implied Total	21.8
21.6	16	Points/Gm	19.3	23
19.4	8	Points All./Gm	21.8	16
68.8	1	Plays/Gm	61.5	22
58.4	2	Opp. Plays/Gm	63.3	15
42.7%	14	Rush%	35.8%	27
57.3%	19	Pass%	64.2%	6
39.7%	11	Opp. Rush %	47.9%	30
60.3%	22	Opp. Pass %	52.1%	3

• Melvin Gordon leads the league in red zone fantasy points (56.9), 44.5 percent of his total on the season.
• Gordon leads the league with 60 touches over the past two weeks and has had 27, 27 and 23 touches over his past three games versus Denver.

• The Broncos are the only team in the league that has yet to allow a rushing touchdown.
• After running just 62 routes and receiving 6.8 percent of the team targets through four games, Hunter Henry has run 57 routes and had 19.2 percent of the team targets over the past two games.
• 27.9 percent of the points scored against Denver have been by opposing tight ends, the second highest rate after the Giants (28.6 percent).
• Keenan Allen has topped 41-yards just once in five career games versus Denver, but has scored four touchdowns in those games.
• After scoring a touchdown on 8-of-22 drives the first two weeks of the season, Denver has scored three touchdowns on 35 drives over their past three games.
• Denver is second in league in red zone plays (62), but just 33.9 percent of those red zone plays have come from inside of the 10-yard line, the third lowest rate of red zone plays in the league.
• 86.6 percent (71-of-82) of C.J. Anderson‘s touches have come with the game tied or Denver leading.
• Demaryius Thomas has at least five receptions in all three of his games against the Chargers since they’ve had Casey Hayward, but has yet to post a top-30 scoring game, finishing as the WR76, WR32 and WR33 in those games.

Trust: Melvin Gordon (he’s stacking opportunities in the rushing game and has five or more receptions in four games while Denver showed last week that they aren’t entirely impenetrable on the ground) , Hunter Henry (the Chargers have seemingly finally come to their senses on playing him while the Denver secondary should funnel targets inside to Henry and Gordon underneath)

Bust: Trevor Siemian (he was the QB4 Week 1 against this defense, but that was at home and he’s down a weapon while the Chargers haven’t allowed a quarterback to finish higher than QB16 since that meeting), Phillip Rivers (he turned in a solid 17.7 points in Week 1, but did so on the strength of three touchdown passes outside of just 192 yards and 5.8 yards per attempt, both season lows), Keenan Allen (he has nine or more targets in every game so far, but has been a volatile option in terms of fantasy results, scoring inside of the top-30 just once over his past four games while Denver is allowing 106 yards per game to wide receivers, third best rate in the league), Tyrell Williams (he’s had fewer than four points in three of his past four games), Jordan Taylor (a deep replacement for thin leagues as he should accrue most of the missing targets from Sanders, but is hard seasonal start against a team that has defended boundary receivers as good as anyone. Bennie Fowler is a better dart throw in this situation, but don’t anticipate two scores again like he had to open the season)

Reasonable Return: Demaryius Thomas (despite his lackluster history versus Hayward and this secondary, with Emmanuel Sanders out, his talent and target level are too high to dismiss because of a tough matchup), C.J. Anderson (this is a ripe matchup versus a defense 29^th in yards from scrimmage allowed to backfields, but as you can see from above and last week, Anderson’s use is tied to Denver staying in control of the game)

Falcons @ Patriots

Atlanta	Rank	@	New England	Rank
3		Spread	-3
26.0		Implied Total	29.0
24.2	12	Points/Gm	28.7	5
21.8	15	Points All./Gm	26.5	30
61.2	27	Plays/Gm	67.0	4
64.0	19	Opp. Plays/Gm	66.3	28
41.2%	20	Rush%	38.1%	24
58.8%	13	Pass%	61.9%	9
37.5%	6	Opp. Rush %	37.4%	5
62.5%	27	Opp. Pass %	62.6%	28

• New England has allowed a league-high 940 yards on completions of 20 or more yards while Atlanta has allowed a league-low 250 yards on those completions.
• The 2,029 passing yards allowed are the fourth most surrendered through NFL history through six games played.
• The Patriots have allowed 145.16 fantasy points to the quarterback position on the season. Deshaun Watson is the top scoring quarterback through six weeks with 136.08 points.
• Tom Brady leads the league in passing yards per possession (29.2 yards) while Matt Ryan ranks second (28.9 yards).
• Ryan has just six pass attempts from inside of the 10-yard line, tied for 26th in the league.
• Devonta Freeman is averaging 3.8 receiving points per game (42nd for all backs) after averaging 7.0 per game in 2016 (10th).
• 35.6 percent of Freeman’s fantasy output has come from touchdowns, the highest rate of all top-24 scoring running backs.
• New England leads the league with 4.2 red zone scoring opportunities per game.
• Dion Lewis played a season-high 43 percent of the team snaps (29 total) with a season-high 11 touches in Week 6, topping his high marks of 24 percent of the snaps and nine touches set in Week 5.

Trust: Tom Brady (this is the one true potential shootout on the board and Brady is the front man for fantasy plays), Matt Ryan (he’s already thrown six interceptions after throwing seven all of 2016, but the Patriots have been a tide-rising defense for every passer, allowing over 300-yards passing in every game), Rob Gronkowski (he’s been a force since turning in a disappointing Week 1), Devonta Freeman (he’s not catching as many passes as last year while being more dependent on reaching the end zone, but the Patriots can be beat in all phases by backfields and the scoring potential is high)

Bust: Mike Gillislee (you can always chase a touchdown with the Patriots, but he hasn’t had more than 12 touches in a game since Week 2, the last time he was inside of the top-40 at the position)

Reasonable Return: Brandin Cooks (he hasn’t been as electric as many hoped, but hasn’t killed teams either as he’s quietly had 80 or more yards in four of six games, tied for second in the league), Julio Jones (it’s not what you paid for, but he’s had a WR2 floor over his past three full games. Despite how much passing yardage the Patriots allow, Tyreek Hill is the only individual lead receiver to light them up for major fantasy points as Michael Thomas, Mike Evans, DeAndre Hopkins and Kelvin Benjamin all turned in WR2-WR3 lines), Chris Hogan (he’s going to score touchdowns in a lot of games, but in the two games he hasn’t scored, he’s been the WR72 and WR78 as he’s yet to reach 80 yards in a game), Danny Amendola (he was a huge factor in the Super Bowl and now that he’s occupying Julian Edelman’s spot, he also has the most favorable matchup on the interior versus this secondary), Austin Hooper/Mohamed Sanu/Taylor Gabriel (Sanu returning takes the shine off of Gabriel and Hooper being elevated plays and makes all three matchup plays only if Jones draws all of the attention of the Pats’ defense. Hooper leads the team with 16 targets over the past two games and the Patriots have allowed the third-most points to the position and is the most desirable of the trio of ancillary options given the position he plays for fantasy), Tevin Coleman (he’s only averaging 10 touches per game, but has yet to finish outside of the top-30 while the Patriots have allowed the most receiving points on the season to opposing backfields), Dion Lewis (he’s been a flex play in three straight games as he’s working himself into a larger role), James White (he’s averaging seven targets per game while having just one week outside flex range on the season)

Washington @ Eagles

Washington	Rank	@	Philadelphia	Rank
4.5		Spread	-4.5
22.0		Implied Total	26.5
23.4	14	Points/Gm	27.5	6
22.6	19	Points All./Gm	20.3	9
63.0	19	Plays/Gm	67.5	3
60.8	7	Opp. Plays/Gm	61.3	8
47.3%	5	Rush%	44.9%	10
52.7%	28	Pass%	55.1%	23
36.2%	2	Opp. Rush %	28.5%	1
63.8%	31	Opp. Pass %	71.5%	32

• Zach Ertz is the only tight end to have double-digit points in every game this season.
• Over his past 16 games played, Ertz has 101 catches, 143 targets, 1,090 yards and 8 TDs while finishing as a TE1 in 13 of those games.
• 19.2 percent of Ertz’s career receptions have come against Washington in 13.4 percent of his career games played.
• Ertz has 25.6 percent of the Eagles’ receiving yardage, the second highest rate among tight ends.
• 33.8 percent of the receiving yardage allowed by Washington has gone to tight ends, the highest rate in the league.
• Opposing passers have completed just 7-of-33 passes (21.1 percent) 15 yards or further downfield against Philadelphia, the lowest rate in the league.
• Chris Thompson‘s 340 receiving yards are the most through a team’s opening five games since Matt Forte (345 yards) in 2011.
• 65.4 percent (17-of-26) of Thompson’s targets have come with Washington ahead on the scoreboard, the highest rate for all players with 20 or more targets on the season.
• The Eagles are allowing 2.9 yards per carry to opposing backfields, the fewest in the league.
• Jamison Crowder has 16.2 percent of the Washington receptions, but just 9.1 percent of their receiving yardage, the largest negative difference in the league.

Trust: Zach Ertz (he’s been the most reliable option at his position and has roasted this defense that has had trouble covering any tight end), Kirk Cousins (he’s been a QB1 in three straight without needing his receiving corps to post large individual lines while the Eagles have allowed a QB1 in five straight), Carson Wentz (he’s playing the best football of his young career, already has 133 rushing yards after having 150 all of 2016 and has thrown for 300-yards in back-to-back games versus Washington)

Bust: Rob Kelley/Samaje Perine (the Eagles have destroyed opposing run games while neither offers much upside), Jordan Reed (last week he ran the most routes he’s had in a game since Week 1, but has yet to provide anything useful for fantasy while he’s been held to fewer than 40 yards in six of seven career games versus the Eagles), Jamison Crowder (he’s yet to finish higher than WR47 this season while he’s had 10 total catches over his past four games versus the Eagles), Josh Doctson (he’s getting an end zone target per game, but that’s about it as he’s only running 11 routes per game still)

Reasonable Return: Chris Thompson (he’s still living above his expected output for usage, but that’s no reason to turn away and the Eagles have bottled up the run, increasing his viability to the offense), Terrelle Pryor (he hasn’t topped five targets or three receptions since Week 1 since receiving 11 in this matchup Week 1 while Philadelphia has allowed a top-30 week to every lead receiver except for one), LeGarrette Blount (Washington has held everyone except Todd Gurley and Kareem Hunt to fewer than 50-yards rushing, but Blount has been a usable flex in every game except for the one in which he played just one snap), Alshon Jeffery (last week was his first game since Week 2 without a nightmare matchup and he received 10 targets, his most since that Week 2 game. With Josh Norman still out, he should roll over that target opportunity), Wendell Smallwood (prior to injury, he had 14 and 13 touches and can be considered for a flex spot), Nelson Agholor (he’s scored in four of six games while his target share has risen from the previous week in four straight games)

Context Key:

Trust = Player to outperform baseline expectations

Bust = Player to underperform baseline expectations

Reasonable Return = Baseline Play that won’t hurt you

**All Vegas Lines are taken from Yahoo listings on Tuesday Evenings