Staying on course with a look at noteworthy nuggets at each position, we’re moving onto the quarterbacks. A few caveats here as I’ve already penned a passing touchdown regression article and highlighted important touchdown kickback notes for a few quarterbacks in the Red Zone Notebook. To avoid overlap, be sure to check those out for any missing notes on specific signal callers.
Incredible Season Rollover and Maximizing QB Roster Value
Cam Newton has always held an extremely high ceiling. His 10 games with 30 or more fantasy points even prior to last season were tied for most in the league with Drew Brees since Cam was drafted in 2011. What had prevented Newton from jumping into the top-tier pantheon was stringing along that ceiling with consistency, and 2015 started out just the same. Through seven weeks, Newton had thrown 11 touchdowns to eight interceptions with just two top-10 scoring weeks before going nuclear over his final nine with 24 touchdowns and just two picks while finishing as the No. 1 quarterback scorer in five of those weeks.
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Including 10 rushing scores, Newton ended up with 45 total touchdowns on the season and trumped his previous high of 24 passing touchdowns with 35 in the air. Newton threw a touchdown pass once every 14.2 pass attempts after averaging one every 23.5 for his career prior. Historically, quarterbacks that have thrown a touchdown once every 15 passes or fewer in an NFL season have thrown on average seven fewer touchdowns the following season. The 2015 Panthers had nearly perfect game script and scoring efficiency, so it’s not hard to see touchdowns naturally descending, which directly relates to Newton’s bottom line.
While it may prove to be true, there’s a lot of assumption that the back half version of 2015 Newton is the real fantasy player going forward. While I also don’t even think it’s a question of will Newton regress in 2016 -- even in the rushing touchdown department -- the good news is that Newton can mitigate normalization in that regard with his rushing output as he’s the only quarterback in NFL history to have five or more rushing touchdowns in five consecutive seasons, and he’s averaged at least five fantasy points per game from rushing alone in every year of his career.
Newton already had three top-5 quarterback seasons prior to last year, so there’s no need to be overly dramatic about any expected recoil making him an ineffective fantasy option. The bigger concern I have with Newton is that he no longer represents the draft value that he did last year.
Newton was the 15th quarterback on average in drafts last season per Fantasy Football Calculator, going in the 10th round. He is the first quarterback selected on average in the third round this season. I don’t need to go into the full ramifications and opportunity cost of selecting a quarterback early in drafts, but you can find a brilliant read on the ins and outs of the topic by JJ Zachariason here which should be applied yearly to your fantasy approach at the position.
Recent history has shown that inflating the previous season’s top quarterback scorer yields disappointing results, and I don’t believe Newton will be an exception. Since 2000, the only quarterbacks to post back to back overall QB1 seasons were Daunte Culpepper in 2003-2004 and Drew Brees in 2011-2012. That says more about the natural regression of the lofty output that it takes to be the highest quarterback scorer than it does about the player himself. You’ll still likely be drafting a great player in Newton, but you’re also giving up a lot more in terms of early-round team building that can be detrimental even if he’s good, let alone if he turns in a worse than expected performance.
Rushing Dependency
Newton and the extra layer of rushing juice that he provides are a good jumping off point for looking at rushing output from quarterbacks. If you’ve followed me for a length of a time, you are aware of the Konami Code and how it can affect weekly output. Over 30 percent of Newton’s fantasy points have come from rushing production in every season of his NFL career. He’s been a constant in that regard, but for most quarterbacks, those numbers move around quite a bit year to year. Even a hyper-mobile quarterback like Russell Wilson has seen his fantasy rushing dependency go from 26.3 percent to 22.2, 36.7 and 18.2 percent to start his career, largely because rushing touchdowns for quarterbacks heavily fluctuate.
Only 18 quarterbacks ever have had five or more touchdowns in back to back seasons and the only ones to do it since 1980 are Newton, Tim Tebow, Daunte Culpepper and Kordell Stewart. Outside of Newton’s 10 rushing scores last season, the only other quarterbacks to rush for five or more scores were Jameis Winston (6) and Kirk Cousins (5).
For Cousins, a loss of rushing scores isn’t severely damaging as rushing production only accounted for 12 percent of his fantasy totals, which was 18th at the position. The same can’t be said for Winston. 20.9 percent of Jameis’ fantasy points came from the ground, which was the 6th highest dependency at the position. Winston is a fine athlete, but I can’t stock that rushing output greatly as he’s not really a running quarterback, ranking 14th in rushing yards per game (13.1) and 13th in rushing attempts per game (3.3). Winston definitely still has room to progress through the air, but counting on him to rank top 5 in quarterback rushing points again isn’t something I would invest in if you’re factoring that output into his perceived floor.
We only have one 14-game season to go off of, but I would invest into the rushing output that we received from Tyrod Taylor rolling over to a large degree. Taylor led the NFL in scramble rate per drop back (10.9 percent) and only Cam Newton had a higher percentage of his fantasy output come from rushing production than Taylor’s 29.9 percent dependency. Only Newton’s 7.7 rushing points per game were higher than Taylor’s 5.8.
The kicker for stocking Taylor’s rushing output is the exact opposite reason for not buying Winston’s. Whereas 63.2 percent of Winston’s rushing output came from touchdowns alone (second highest of all quarterbacks with double digit rushing points on the season), under a third (29.7 percent) of Taylor’s rushing production was anchored by TDs, which was 12th. Taylor led all quarterbacks in rushing yards per game (40.6), running for 40 or more yards in 9-of-14 games, the scoring equivalent of an extra weekly touchdown pass. Taylor also proved his rushing output is capable of trumping low volume as he averaged just 2.5 pass attempts per possession and that passing volume has nowhere to go but up as it already ranked last for all quarterbacks and the Bills remain a candidate to score more touchdowns than they did in 2015.
Hot Halves
Newton’s second half of the season is also a good branching point in highlighting how individual player runs can disguise their overall seasonal numbers. The best example after Newton was of course Russell Wilson, who went bananas over his final seven games after starting out dreadfully poor in the opening two thirds of the fantasy season.
| Weeks | Cmp/Gm | Rank | Att/Gm | Rank | Yd/Gm | Rank | TD/Gm | Rank | FPT/Gm | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-10 | 19.4 | 24 | 29.6 | 27 | 235.3 | 25 | 1.1 | 25 | 15.8 | 24 |
| 11-17 | 22.0 | 12 | 31.0 | 20 | 272.3 | 9 | 3.4 | 1 | 27.7 | 2 |
Through nine games played, Wilson ranked inside the top 10 in quarterback scoring just once with five weeks in the bottom half of scoring and was in the bottom third of almost every major category. Through 10 weeks, the majority of owners that spent their 6th round pick on Wilson were likely in two camps. They were either already near the cellar for riding him that deep into the season, or they had already cut bait before soaking in his best output of the year. To close the season after that disappointing open, Wilson never finished lower than QB7 in a given week with six games of three or more passing touchdowns after totaling six such games through his first 57 career games, and threw a touchdown pass on 11.1 percent of his attempts.
Wilson only made modest jumps in attempts per game in the bottom splits, but there was a significant spike in volume when you consider that Seattle led by two or more possessions for 70.2 percent of their second half snaps over that span, and ran on 59.4 percent of them. Those game situations accounted for 34 percent of Seattle’s total offensive plays during his hot stretch, but just 25 percent of Wilson’s pass attempts.
It’s highly likely that Wilson’s fantastic efficiency ultimately caps how high his volume can go even though he should finally push past 500 pass attempts this season, and there’s absolutely no way you can expect a touchdown rate in the double digits to sustain itself. (The best season for TD rate ever was Peyton Manning‘s 2004 at 9.9 percent.) But Wilson’s glowing passing efficiency in bulk throughout his career is a backbone underneath the rushing ability he also provides, which puts him in strong contention to be the top fantasy quarterback scorer in 2016.
Moving in the opposite direction, Derek Carr began the season on fire before wilting over the back of 2015. Through nine weeks, Carr was 10th in quarterback scoring and 6th in points per game when accounting for his Week 1 performance, in which he only played in the first quarter. Over those seven full games, Carr was a top-8 scorer five times and a top-5 finisher four times as he threw 19 touchdowns to just four interceptions. By all accounts, the Raiders had stolen their future franchise quarterback until the second half of the season came around.
| Weeks | Cmp/Gm | Rank | Att/Gm | Rank | Yd/Gm | Rank | Yd/Att | Rank | TD/Gm | Rank | FPT/Gm | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-9 | 24 | 10 | 37.7 | 12 | 288.8 | 7 | 7.7 | 12 | 2.6 | 2 | 20.8 | 6 |
| 10-17 | 22 | 13 | 37.5 | 7 | 236.6 | 19 | 6.3 | 30 | 1.6 | 12 | 15.0 | 20 |
Despite holding the same volume per game, Carr’s efficiency plummeted in the back half. His yards per attempt fell back toward his rookie season performance and he threw 13 touchdowns to nine interceptions. For fantasy purposes, he had just one week inside of the top 10 over that stretch with four weeks as the QB20 or lower. It’s worth mentioning that Amari Cooper got nicked up over the latter third of the season, but Cooper also had his best game of the season during that time and accounted for 26.8 percent of Carr’s passing points over the final eight weeks compared to 27.9 percent in the front half. A hobbled Cooper is not a complete out for Carr’s stuggles being more on his own play and the fact that Oakland had a big shift in strength of schedule.
I’ve already highlighted how I expect Carr’s volume to continue to decrease heading into his third season and Oakland averaged 4.9 passing touchdowns per rushing score last year (29th in the league while the league average was 2.9), which could compromise Carr’s touchdown totals from regaining the front of 2015 if the offense balances out. In the end, I want to keep Carr on my radar because in that front half he displayed a high ceiling and because he draws a fairly comfortable opening slate over his first eight weeks, but with his ADP currently in the top-12 quarterbacks, I’d like to see more of the negatives priced into his cost.
Before Keenan Allen was lost for the season, Philip Rivers was the second highest scoring quarterback behind Tom Brady last season. Losing Allen was definitely huge as Rivers threw just eight touchdowns the rest of the way, while Antonio Gates was limited, Stevie Johnson got banged up and the offensive line was a mess. While I believe all those things contributed to Rivers’ disastrous second half, I also believe that Rivers was due for an in-season step back regardless, as he had an ultra-light opening half schedule and unbalanced play splits. San Diego had yet to play any of their four games versus Denver or Kansas City, while Rivers’ two weakest fantasy games of the opening half were also against good defenses (Minnesota, Cincinnati). That hot start could be more of the same as we’ve frequently seen Rivers come out of the blocks on fire before. Since Mike McCoy took over in San Diego, Rivers opening up hot before disappearing down the stretch has become a recurring trend.
| Year | Cmp/Gm | Att/Gm | Yd/Gm | TD/Gm | INT/Gm | FPT/Gm |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013 Front | 26.6 | 36.9 | 309.1 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 19.6 |
| 2013 Back | 20.6 | 31.1 | 250.6 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 16.4 |
| 2014 Front | 23.1 | 33.9 | 276.6 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 20.7 |
| 2014 Back | 24.3 | 37.4 | 259.1 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 12.5 |
| 2015 Front | 30.4 | 43.5 | 344.1 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 21 |
| 2015 Back | 24.3 | 39.1 | 254.9 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 14.5 |
While I do believe a large portion of 2015’s decline is more personnel related to injuries at wide receiver and offensive line than previous seasons, I also find it hard to believe that Rivers rolls over those 43 plus pass attempts per game (a mark that would’ve equaled the second most pass attempts by a quarterback ever over a full season) that he was carrying over the front half of 2015. Rivers hasn’t thrown fewer than 26 passing touchdowns since 2007, so I’m still all for grabbing him, and his front half schedule is relatively desirable once again. But if the second half decline happens again, I’ll be ready to make a quick pull of the trigger as San Diego does have road games at Houston and Carolina in two of their three games post their Week 11 bye, when owners look toward locking up playoff chances and victories.
There’s No Place Like Home
Drew Brees has thrown for at least 4,000 yards with 30 passing touchdowns in eight consecutive seasons -- the longest streak in NFL history -- but once again his fantasy output sagged on the road last season. Brees was a top-10 weekly scorer in just 1-of-7 road games with four of those finishing as the QB16 or lower. This is hardly a new development for Brees. Interestingly enough, while his outdoor stats may make some sense given any arm strength issues or offensive system profiting from comfortable climates, he’s actually been worse indoors on the road than outside over the past five seasons.
| Location | Games | Cmp/Gm | Att/Gm | Yd/Gm | TD/Gm | INT/Gm | FPt/Gm |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 40 | 28.1 | 40.4 | 331.5 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 24.7 |
| at Outdoors | 28 | 27.6 | 41.4 | 313.7 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 18.8 |
| at Indoors | 11 | 29.6 | 44.3 | 326.9 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 17.0 |
First, we can dispell the narrative that Brees is “bad” on the road as the discrepancy in his play is more about him being godly at home. Still, don’t mistake the face value in scoring output of 17-19 points per game as holding the weight it once did. Over the same span, scoring 17-19 points has resulted in an average weekly finish of QB11.7, whereas 24 plus points is a QB3 scoring week. The gap in fantasy output is still relevant and should be acknowledged.
Everything lines up in sync for Brees in regards to completion rate and yardage no matter where he is, but his touchdown output takes a major plunge on the road. That held true last season, as just nine of his 32 passing touchdowns came in away games. It’s worth noting that three of Brees’ final four games are on the road this season, even if two of those are indoors. I definitely wouldn’t let these splits detour me from making him my quarterback, though. Brees may just be a mortal quarterback for fantasy on the road, but that’s a fine trade overall for the week winning power he’s held at home.
In the case of Ben Roethlisberger, his home and away splits are more perplexing considering the playing surface and weather in Pittsburgh late in the season, but it’s been since 2009 since Big Ben has outplayed his home output as he’s thrown 39 more touchdowns at home over the past six seasons in the same number of games.
| Location | Games | Cmp/Gm | Att/Gm | Yd/Gm | TD/Gm | INT/Gm | FPt/Gm |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 42 | 22.6 | 35.0 | 285.5 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 19.7 |
| Away | 42 | 23.8 | 36.7 | 278.6 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 14.7 |
Even when we pull that sample in to just account for the past three seasons when Antonio Brown became the receiver we know him as now, and when this offense infused Le’Veon Bell, Roethlisberger has thrown 53 touchdown passes at home to 28 on the road while averaging seven more fantasy points in Pittsburgh in the exact same sample size. Last season was no different as Roethlisberger threw just five of his 21 scores on the road with one week inside of the top-10 fantasy scorers at his position. Just like with Brees, I wouldn’t let this get in the way of wanting Ben on my teams as a deciding factor, but his first two fantasy playoff games are on the road at Buffalo and at Cincinnati, a place where he has just seven passing touchdowns over his past six games played there (although one mammoth game in 2014, for what it’s worth). Adding Big Ben’s road splits into his splits without Martavis Bryant are enough reason to be passive at his high end price tag.
Outlying Efficiency
One of my favorite quarterback statistics is adjusted yards per attempt (AY/A) because it incorporates every range of outcomes for a pass attempt, giving you an increased truth on efficiency per pass. One of the quarterbacks that made a gigantic step in efficiency per pass last season was Andy Dalton. Prior to last season, Dalton’s AY/A had held rock steady at 6.2, 6.6, 6.9, and 6.3 adjusted yards per attempt before shooting all the way up to a gaudy 8.9 mark in 2015, which trailed only Carson Palmer (9.1 AY/A) and Russell Wilson (9.0) on the season. Dalton’s career highs in completion percentage (66.1), touchdown rate (6.5) and interception rate (1.8) contributed to the breakout, but he also lost a lot of familiarity on offense this season.
Hue Jackson is gone and although new offensive coordinator Ken Zampese has worked with Dalton his entire career and won’t alter the scheme dramatically, we’ve yet to see Zampese’s play calling ever in the NFL. The Bengals also lost Marvin Jones and Mohamed Sanu, both modest contributors that had a rapport with Dalton and were replaced with Brandon LaFell (who ranked 69th in yards per target of all receivers in 2015) and rookie receiver Tyler Boyd. Injured Tyler Eifert may be slow out of the blocks to begin the season.
I find it hard to believe that it’s just coincidence that Dalton’s best season in the NFL came in a season that also featured him spreading the ball around more than ever. If the Bengals are forced to fall back into just overly feeding A.J. Green target after target because of the changes this offense may make, that’s a potential problem for Dalton’s output. 2016 will be a telling season if Dalton’s 2015 will be known as an outlier in terms of efficiency, or if he’s truly taken the next step.
Everyone that spent high draft capital on Aaron Rodgers felt the sting of arguably his worst season as a passer since his first year taking the reins from Brett Favre in 2008.
| Year | Gm | Comp% | Yd/Gm | Y/A | AY/A | PaTD% | Pts/Gm |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2008 | 16 | 63.6% | 252.4 | 7.5 | 7.5 | 5.2% | 17.9 |
| 2009 | 16 | 64.7% | 277.1 | 8.2 | 8.7 | 5.5% | 21.3 |
| 2010 | 15 | 65.7% | 261.5 | 8.3 | 8.4 | 5.9% | 20.2 |
| 2011 | 15 | 68.3% | 309.5 | 9.2 | 10.5 | 9.0% | 26.3 |
| 2012 | 16 | 67.2% | 268.4 | 7.8 | 8.5 | 7.1% | 21.5 |
| 2013 | 9 | 66.6% | 281.8 | 8.7 | 9 | 5.9% | 19.0 |
| 2014 | 16 | 65.6% | 273.8 | 8.4 | 9.5 | 7.3% | 22.3 |
| 2015 | 16 | 60.7% | 238.8 | 6.7 | 7.1 | 5.4% | 18.3 |
Rodgers posted career lows in completion rate, yards per game and yards per attempt while posting his lowest points per game and touchdown rate since his first season as a starter. Despite the depressed efficiency, Rodgers still was the 7th highest scoring quarterback on the season and 10th in points per game with eight top-10 scoring weeks, bested only by Blake Bortles, Tom Brady and Cam Newton.
If that’s a true proxy of Rodgers’ floor, then he’s in a great spot for a bounce back by getting back a healthy Jordy Nelson, a refurbished Eddie Lacy and the same benefit that Newton had a season ago of facing the NFC East and AFC South. Early round hesitation applies to any of the top quarterbacks, but if I were forced to select one with a top pick, Rodgers would still be my choice.
