For those unfamiliar with this summer series, we’re taking a look back at the 2017 season, adding data points and notes with an application in the form of regression analysis that can serve as bullet points to diagnose 2018 player and team expectations. To start our downhill journey into August drafts, let’s look at scoring, drives and plays largely on a team level while peppering in some individual player notes.
In 2017, we were left to play in the kiddie pool because scoring was one thing the NFL severely lacked. Teams averaged 21.7 points per game a year ago, their lowest scoring rate since 2009. We had 108 fewer rushing and receiving TDs than there were in the 2016 season, and the overall total of those scores (1,121) was the lowest since 2007.
Touchdowns are the lifeblood for creating a high-scoring fantasy football environment, so 2017’s ineptitude caused us to have our lowest-scoring offensive fantasy season in eight years. 42.8 percent of drives ended in punts, the league’s highest rate since 1999. We can pick out our favorite ingredients that are baked into that scoring decline. From the litany of quarterback injuries to universal offensive line incompetence, defensive play rising, and impact of rule changes, but betting on offensive scoring rebounding is a probable wager. This was just a quick scratch of the surface. As we delve deeper into position levels, let’s highlight a few spots we can exploit with an anticipated touchdown-scoring rise.
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Ram It with Efficiency
A few teams still delivered stat-stuffing seasons, and no team out-kicked expectations more than the Rams in their first year under Sean McVay. The Rams led the league in offensive scoring at 29.9 points per game and did so in a manner of increased efficiency that had not been seen in a decade.
The 2017 Rams scored on 22.7 percent more of their drives than they did to end the Jeff Fisher Age of 2016. No team made as significant a jump in scoring rate over the past decade than the 2017 Rams compared to a previous season. Of the other top-10 teams in the last decade to make similar spikes in scoring rate and overall output, nearly all regressed the following season.
NFL Teams with the highest scoring increase per drive since 2007
| Team | Year | Scoring % | Prev Yr. | +/- | N+ Scoring% | N+ oTD | N+ PPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAR | 2017 | 45.3% | 22.6% | 22.7% | TBD | TBD | TBD |
| CAR | 2011 | 40.5% | 20.8% | 19.7% | -7.8% | -11 | -3.1 |
| ATL | 2016 | 55.8% | 36.4% | 19.4% | -14.6% | -24 | -11.7 |
| DEN | 2012 | 42.5% | 25.3% | 17.2% | 8.6% | 22 | 7.8 |
| GB | 2011 | 51.8% | 36.4% | 15.4% | -12.5% | -15 | -7.9 |
| ATL | 2008 | 42.1% | 27.1% | 14.9% | -5.7% | 1 | -1.7 |
| TB | 2010 | 35.8% | 20.9% | 14.8% | -6.3% | -10 | -3.4 |
| SF | 2011 | 42.1% | 27.3% | 14.8% | -1.4% | 8 | 1.0 |
| SD | 2013 | 46.0% | 31.5% | 14.6% | -12.1% | -4 | -3.0 |
| ARI | 2015 | 46.5% | 32.4% | 14.1% | -10.4% | -4 | -4.5 |
| DAL | 2016 | 46.3% | 32.5% | 13.8% | -10.0% | -9 | -4.2 |
Of the teams listed, not one scored more efficiently in their post-breakout year. All but two teams scored fewer points the following season with the one clear exception being the 2013 Broncos, the best offense in NFL history.
The obvious card yet to be played is that the Rams’ defense has loaded up on talent. While that defensive upgrade can theoretically create more scoring opportunities with shorter fields, it will be hard for the Rams to still run into all of the short-scoring opportunities last year’s team experienced. Los Angeles ranked first in the league in amount of drives (27) and subsequent touchdowns scored (15) while starting on the opposition’s side of the field. Those scores accounted for 33.3 percent of Los Angeles’ total touchdowns. Over the past decade, only two teams (the 2009 and 2010 Bears) have led the league in drives started on the opposition’s side of the field. And of those two Bears teams, neither scored more touchdowns on drives started across the 50 than the year prior.
Philly, Philly
Although the Eagles’ offensive spike wasn’t quite as pronounced as the Rams’ worst-to-first run, it seems that you don’t go on a Super Bowl run out of the NFC lately without a major offensive leap.
Philadelphia Per Drive Output 2016-2017
| Year | Points/Drive | Rank | Scoring% | Rank | TD% | Rank | TD | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 2.08 | 5 | 42.8% | 7 | 26.7% | 3 | 48 | 2 |
| 2016 | 1.79 | 16 | 39.9% | 11 | 19.7% | 20 | 34 | 21 |
With a mostly-healthy roster, added pieces, and Carson Wentz making a significant sophomore stride, the Eagles became one the premier scoring offenses in the league, and that spike could’ve been higher as Wentz missed the final three games of the season, the final two of which saw the Eagles total just 19 points.
While their efficiency rose across the board, the Eagles were already above league average in per-drive scoring in 2016. The main area where they elevated into the league’s elite was converting a much higher rate of drives into touchdowns over field goals. That’s also the area of scoring efficiency that is hardest to maintain elite efficiency.
Since 2000, 98 teams have scored a touchdown on 25 percent or more of drives. 78 of those 98 teams notched a lower touchdown rate the following season with an average loss of -4.5 percent. 79 of those 98 teams scored fewer offensive touchdowns the next season with an average loss of -7 rushing/receiving TDs. Of those 98, just 11 of the teams to do so in back-to-back seasons weren’t led by Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers or Drew Brees.
As we discussed with the 2015 Panthers and the Falcons entering last season, a lot goes into creating a league-leading efficient offense. Rolling all of those factors into the following season is a lot easier said than done. Natural regression should be accounted for when projecting both teams. But don’t mistake this as something to completely turn you off to either team in 2018. Not all regression is something to run away from. Both the Eagles and the Rams can still have strong seasons offensively that are more than usable for fantasy purposes, but projecting their league-leading efficiency marks over a small sample to be their year-over-year norm isn’t a stable bet.
More Scores in the ATL
Speaking of that expected regression for the 2017 Falcons, their scoring deterioration from 2016 hit harder than expected, another example to show how fragile sustaining high-scoring efficiency truly is. New OC Steve Sarkisian has shouldered the blame, but Atlanta’s offense was still good. The Falcons were eighth in the league in offensive yardage (364.8 yards per game), third in yardage gained per possession (35.3 yards), and fifth in yards per play (5.9). Yet they ranked 20th in offensive touchdowns (33).
Over the past decade, offensive yardage has a R-Squared of .7025 in relation to offensive touchdowns, meaning 70.25 percent of all those scores can be explained by yardage gained. Under that umbrella, the 2017 Falcons finished with six fewer offensive TDs than expected by yardage gained. That -6 mark ranked tied for 26th in the league, ahead of only Cleveland, San Francisco, Denver, and the Giants, four teams that combined to win just four more games than the Falcons did all of last year. In fact, the Falcons were the only team in the bottom-10 of the league in expected touchdown differential to post a winning record.
Caution on the KC?
Led by a career season from Alex Smith, another team that was hyper-efficient a year ago was the Chiefs. In fact, they were better per drive than any team that Andy Reid has coached in his 19-year career.
| Team | Yds/Drive | Points/Drive | Scoring Rate% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 KC | 34.9 | 2.05 | 46.2% |
| Prev. Reid High | 33.8 | 1.99 | 41.7% |
| Prior Reid Averages | 29.0 | 1.67 | 35.1% |
The 2017 Chiefs ranked fourth in scoring rate per drive, and sixth in both yards and points per possession. The 2018 version is arguably one of the most talented offensive groups Reid has ever had on paper. But regardless of how much excitement we feel for the potential of this offense and how good of an aesthetic fit all the surrounding pieces are for Pat Mahomes, he’s going to have a high bar to hit in his first season as a starter. Warren Sharp also tagged the Chiefs’ offense with the second toughest schedule in the league.
But even if you’re expecting the Chiefs to take a step back, Mahomes is the safest buy here. Mahomes isn’t being drafted as a QB1 at current ADP, while so many of his playmakers -- Kareem Hunt, Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill -- are occupying costs in the opening three rounds. This leaves you room to squeeze on the potential ceiling of those players while pricing in some of the potentially unstable floor of this offense.
Kelce is the safest of the skill players by default of playing the softest fantasy position. It’s hard to fathom him being a true disappointment in the context of the weak tight end landscape, even if Kelce’s output falls short of his ADP.
Hunt is a three-down back, which are in short supply, so he still should be highly regarded even if Kansas City comes back to the pack. Hunt’s biggest concern comes from rushing volume. The most carries a Kansas City running back outside of Hunt logged was just 18 from Charcandrick West; Hunt handled 272-of-314 (86.6 percent) running back carries, the highest share in the league. With Spencer Ware returning and Damien Williams and Kerwynn Williams on board to push West, that share of the workload won’t roll over. Hunt may hit a few dead spots along the way, but as the most complete back on the roster in a Reid-coached system that has continuously churned valuable fantasy production from its lead back, Hunt is still a fine RB1 pick.
Hill carries the most concern of that group due to potential volume loss, but he is undoubtedly an electric player. Hill’s 7.0 targets per game ranked just 28th at the position a year ago and that was without Sammy Watkins on the field. Hill’s efficiency was incredible, becoming the first wide receiver with over 100 targets in a season to catch at least 70 percent of them while averaging over 15.0 yards per reception. Hill also caught all seven of his touchdowns from 30-yards out. Those big plays are what you’re drafting him for and still hold value in ongoing Best Ball leagues, but Hill’s weekly volatility could be heightened with the quarterback change and addition of Watkins.
Grounding the Saints
New Orleans finished second in the league in PPR points generated for their skill players in 2017, the 12th time in as many seasons that Drew Brees has been with the Saints that they’ve finished either first or second in the league in that category. Let that sink in for a moment. Despite maintaining their dominance in team output, they did so in a unique fashion versus how they’ve previously generated points; leading the league in fantasy points generated solely from rushing production at 21.6 per game.
The 2017 Saints rushed on 44.3 percent of plays, 10th in the league and their second-highest rate over the 12 years that Brees has been their quarterback. That shift in offensive approach caused New Orleans to suffer a major play-volume loss, losing 105 offensive snaps from their 2016 total and the equivalent of 1.6 games worth of offensive output based the previous 11-year average for this offense.
Being able to run at the rate they did in 2017 is a recipe that New Orleans no doubt wants to replicate with Brees at age 39, but the Saints leading on 52.6 percent of their snaps again will be tough. Of the 26 teams to lead for half of their offensive plays in the last decade, the average loss the following season for rate of snaps led was a drop of -11.3%. That’s a big deal because the Saints also weren’t as run heavy as you’d believe. New Orleans ranked 10th in rushing rate, but they ranked 21st in rushing rate when games were within one score.
Brees was still as good as ever, leading the league in completion rate (72.0), completions per game (24.1) and yards per attempt (8.1) among qualified passers. He just ran into a season in which the Saints had a ton of leads and was bitten by touchdown variance. Brees’ 23 passing scores were his fewest since 2003.
2017 TD Splits
| Tm | PaTD | RuTD | PaTD% | RuTD% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | 34 | 4 | 89.47% | 10.53% |
| MIA | 24 | 4 | 85.71% | 14.29% |
| PHI | 38 | 9 | 80.85% | 19.15% |
| CIN | 25 | 6 | 80.65% | 19.35% |
| HOU | 28 | 8 | 77.78% | 22.22% |
| ARI | 21 | 6 | 77.78% | 22.22% |
| NYG | 20 | 6 | 76.92% | 23.08% |
| TB | 26 | 8 | 76.47% | 23.53% |
| DET | 29 | 10 | 74.36% | 25.64% |
| LAC | 28 | 10 | 73.68% | 26.32% |
| WAS | 27 | 10 | 72.97% | 27.03% |
| PIT | 29 | 12 | 70.73% | 29.27% |
| DEN | 19 | 8 | 70.37% | 29.63% |
| KC | 26 | 12 | 68.42% | 31.58% |
| NE | 32 | 16 | 66.67% | 33.33% |
| GB | 25 | 13 | 65.79% | 34.21% |
| OAK | 23 | 13 | 63.89% | 36.11% |
| ATL | 21 | 12 | 63.64% | 36.36% |
| MIN | 25 | 15 | 62.50% | 37.50% |
| LAR | 28 | 17 | 62.22% | 37.78% |
| CAR | 22 | 15 | 59.46% | 40.54% |
| NYJ | 19 | 13 | 59.38% | 40.63% |
| BAL | 20 | 14 | 58.82% | 41.18% |
| CLE | 15 | 11 | 57.69% | 42.31% |
| BUF | 16 | 12 | 57.14% | 42.86% |
| DAL | 22 | 18 | 55.00% | 45.00% |
| IND | 13 | 11 | 54.17% | 45.83% |
| JAX | 21 | 18 | 53.85% | 46.15% |
| NO | 23 | 23 | 50.00% | 50.00% |
| CHI | 13 | 13 | 50.00% | 50.00% |
| SF | 15 | 15 | 50.00% | 50.00% |
| TEN | 14 | 18 | 43.75% | 56.25% |
The 2017 Saints had a dead-even split in rushing and passing touchdowns at 23 each. Over the past decade, 64.8 percent of their offensive touchdowns scored have been via passing. In 2017, that number was at 66.1 percent. There have 28 other teams over that span to have a 50/50 split or less in passing touchdowns, and those teams saw an average increase of +5.6 passing scores the following season.
That bodes well for increased touchdown potential for not only Brees, but also for hopeful breakouts of Jimmy Garoppolo and Mitchell Trubisky while expecting a recoil for Marcus Mariota. The Tennessee rushing touchdown split was not only the highest in the league last year, it was the 9th-highest rate over the past decade. The eight teams with a more lopsided rushing-TD split than the Titans over that span came back and had an average passing touchdown rate of 60.1 percent the following season. Mariota threw a touchdown on just 2.9 percent of his pass attempts in 2017 after posting touchdown rates of 5.1 percent and 5.8 percent in his first two seasons. While drafters are fighting over who will be the guy to own in this backfield between Derrick Henry and Dion Lewis, the plays to make within this offense are on the cheaper passing components of Mariota, Corey Davis, Delanie Walker and Rishard Matthews before even accounting for the incoming scheme change that benefits this passing game over the previous “exotic smashmouth” experiment.
Finding More Rushing Scores
No team relied on the pass to reach the end zone last season like Seattle did. In fact, Seattle’s 89.5-percent passing touchdown rate was the highest rate in a decade. Of the 25 teams prior to 2017 to score at least 80 percent of their scores through the air over that span, just four threw more passing touchdowns the following season, while the average loss of passing scores from the other 21 teams was -7.6. Inversely, 22-of-25 teams rushed for more touchdowns the following season with an average increase from teams at +5.2 rushing scores.
Seattle ranked fifth in the league in offensive plays run inside of the opponent’s five-yard line but managed just two rushing touchdowns in that area, both from Russell Wilson. Departed Jimmy Graham caught seven touchdowns from four yards and in. And just two quarterbacks have had back-to-back years as the overall fantasy QB1 over the past 20 years. It’s not hard to find natural touchdown regression for Wilson, but Wilson has finished as a top-10 scorer at his position in all six of his seasons in the league, so don’t run too far from him.
In that same bucket with Seattle are Philadelphia, Miami and Cincinnati. We’ve already discussed how the Eagles could naturally score fewer offensive touchdowns, and here’s an additional marker for how their passing scores could decrease. The 2017 Eagles were second in the league in offensive TDs, but just 24th in rushing scores. Jay Ajayi has found the end zone on the ground just three times over his past 26 games including the postseason and didn’t even garner a single touch inside the five-yard line a year ago on either the Eagles or Dolphins. Ajayi shouldn’t be expected to be a zero in that department in 2018, especially with the departure of LeGarrette Blount.
Miami tied Seattle for the fewest rushing touchdowns in the league a year ago (4), which was the lowest number of rushing touchdowns the Dolphins have had in a season in their entire 52 years as a franchise. The 2017 Dolphins ran just five rushing plays inside of the opponent’s five-yard line, fewest in the league and tied for fourth fewest in a season over the past 20 years.
Bengals Run Game and Play Volume Rebounding
The last of those four teams is the Bengals. Cincinnati managed six rushing scores a year ago after rushing for double-digit touchdowns in each of the previous six seasons with an average of 14.8 scores on the ground over that span. It was their fewest number of rushing touchdowns as a team since 2008.
The Bengals also were victimized by their offensive incompetence overall as they ran the fewest offensive plays in the league (57.9 per game), their third-lowest per-game average in their 50-year history and their fewest in a season since 1969. The Bengals ran -1.5 games worth of offensive snaps than what they averaged over their 14 previous seasons under Marvin Lewis. Given corrections to their offensive line and clearer backfield layout, it’s easy to find rationale for more volume and scoring opportunities for the Cincinnati backfield in 2018.
Motoring in the Midway
Ranking just ahead of the Bengals in play volume was the Bears at a lowly 58.3 offensive plays per game, which was just a shade worse than their 30th ranking in that department in 2016 (60.4 plays), their second consecutive season led by Dowell Loggains. Loggains and the archaic John Fox have since departed in favor of Matt Nagy and Mark Helfrich. Nagy took over play-calling duties in Kansas City last Week 13. Prior to Nagy calling plays, the Chiefs ranked 28th in offensive plays per game (60.5). From that point on, they ranked 17th in plays per game (63.8) and fifth over the final month of the season (68.3 plays). Helfrich comes from the Chip Kelly umbrella of tempo and misdirection. During Helfrich’s eight years at Oregon, they ranked top eight in the country in scoring seven times, top five in total yards six times, and top 10 in rushing yards six times.
Motor-Less City in Detroit
The Lions certainly want to run the ball more and have nowhere to go but up in rushing effectiveness. Detroit ranked 32nd, 30th, 31st and 28th in rushing yardage per game over the past four years and 30th or lower in rushing rate in each of the past three seasons.
Their offensive line was ravaged in 2017, as Matthew Stafford was sacked on a career-high 7.7 percent of drop backs while the Lions generated just 0.79 yards before contact for their running backs, which ranked 31st in the league. LT Taylor Decker missed eight games with a shoulder injury while free agent signees T.J. Lang and Rick Wagner dealt with a plethora of ailments as they missed three games each while being questionable on the team’s injury report for a combined six other games.
This season, Detroit has their best offensive line on paper in some time as they get all three of those players back healthy as well as drafting Frank Ragnow in the first round to start at left guard, while sliding last season’s left guard Graham Glasgow -- their highest graded run blocker in 2017 per Pro Football Focus -- over to center. The team signed LeGarrette Blount in free agency and used the 43rd overall pick on Kerryon Johnson. The Lions also cut ties with Eric Ebron in favor of a group that consists of Michael Roberts, Luke Willson, Sean McGrath and Levine Toilolo. Ebron blocked on just 26.9 percent of his snaps last season, the lowest rate for all 99 tight ends with over 100 plays. Roberts blocked on the 5th-highest rate (81.5 percent), McGrath ranked seventh (80.2 percent), Toilolo 21st (73.6 percent) and Willson 44th (62.3 percent) out of those same 99 tight ends.
The signal to run the ball is strong, but the issue is that if they are able to finally generate a run game, what impact will this have on overall volume and Detroit’s passing attack? The Lions retained OC Jim Bob Cooter, who has helmed one of the slowest offenses in the league despite being one of the pass-heaviest.
| Year | Play/Gm | Rank | Seconds/Play | Rank | Pass% | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015* | 64.1 | 19 | 28.7 | 24 | 62.2% | 12 |
| 2016 | 61.3 | 29 | 28.5 | 27 | 64.4% | 3 |
| 2017 | 61.3 | 28 | 28.2 | 24 | 63.0% | 2 |
*Weeks 8-17 when Cooter took over as OC/ Pace Stats from Football Outsiders
Despite having a pass-first offense, Detroit has been a bottom-dwelling team in offensive pace and play volume. The Lions threw the ball at the second-highest rate of any team a year ago, but Matthew Stafford still threw 29 fewer times (565 total), his lowest total since his second year in the league in 2010 when Stafford played just three games. Thanks to a career-high 7.9 yards per pass attempt and 5.1 percent touchdown rate (fourth highest of his nine-year career), Stafford was able to fight off the volume loss of a year ago. Stafford has now thrown for over 4,000 yards in seven consecutive seasons. Stafford is the player this offense is going to run through and has the makings of a stable commodity, but the Detroit passing game stands to take a hit if Cooter continues to move at a snail’s pace to go along any increased rushing productivity.
