After two straight really strong weeks, we were bound to have a bit of a step back, so hitting on five of the top 10 defenses in Week 7 isn’t such a bad week. Denver, Buffalo, and Minnesota were all inside the top five, so having them each finish in double digits was nice, and we hit on both the Rams and Colts as back-half of the top 10 plays, which covered for our misses on the Chargers and Packers.
Yet, the Packers still scored five points, and the success of the Vikings furthers this truth for me that I’d rather trust an elite defense in a bad matchup than roll the dice on a streamer in a plus matchup. All of Minnesota, Detroit, and Green Bay were dinged this week for matchups, but Minnesota had 11 points, Detroit had six points, and the Packers five points, so those are all usable performances that didn’t hurt you. Five or six points won’t win you a week, but you save waiver money or the spot on the bench you’d need to stash a streamer and still get a usable performance. All of the top five last week scored defensive touchdowns, but it’s so hard to count on week after week, so I’d rather keep the safe floor of an elite defense than play a defense and cross my fingers for one big play to carry me.
That dilemma won’t be as impactful this week with so many good defenses having good matchups, but you’ll have some people thinking about playing mediocre or bad defenses because of all the injuries we had on offense to players like Brandon Aiyuk, Deebo Samuel, Mike Evans, Jayden Daniels, Chris Godwin, and more.
Don’t miss episodes of Fantasy Football Happy Hour with Matthew Berry and Rotoworld Football Show all season long for the latest player news, waiver wire help, start/sit advice, and much more.
As a final reminder, what you’ll get each week in this article is not just my rankings but also my thoughts on why teams are ranked how they are. Tier One will the my “elite” plays of the week. Tier Two will be plays that I consider strong, while Tier Three will almost always be borderline top-10 plays. Those are either good defenses in bad matchups or mediocre defenses in good matchups. Tier Four will be deep-league targets, and Tier Five will be defenses that nobody should be playing that particular week.
Each week, I’ll keep track of how many Top-10 defenses I correctly called, so we can all see how accurate the BOD (Best Overall Defense) rankings are.
2024 SEASON SUCCESS RATE (Percentage of top 10 defenses correctly predicted)
WEEK 7: 5-5
SEASON-LONG: 38-32 (54.3%)
BOD Formula and Philosophy
If you’ve read my earlier articles then you know that I value defenses that get pressure on the quarterback and create turnover opportunities, which is likely what most people value. However, that means I look at underlying metrics and try to value the quality of the defense over simply saying, “Who is playing a bad offense?” While opponents factor into my rankings, I don’t want to elevate a bad or mediocre defense simply because of a matchup.
To do that, I’ve utilized the following formula:
((PFF PASS RUSH PRODUCTION x 2) + FORCED INCOMPLETE RATE + TACKLES FOR LOSS/GAME + (TURNOVER RATE x 2))
DIVIDED BY
(EPA RATE ALLOWED + OPPONENT SCORING RATE X 1.5)
With all of that out of the way, how do these defenses rank for Week 8?
We’re going back to the Broncos as my top defense of the week after they delivered against the Saints in Week 7. Next up is the Panthers, who give up the eighth-most fantasy points to opposing defenses. There’s also a chance that the Panthers will choose to rest a banged-up Diontae Johnson, who they are rumored to be looking to trade at some point this season. The Broncos should get Patrick Surtain back after he missed a week with a concussion, and this is a defense that ranks first in PFF’s Pass Rush production grade, second in tackles for a loss or no gain per game, fourth in opponent’s scoring rate, and fifth in explosive play rate allowed. They seem like the safest bet of the week to me.
I know we expected the Lions to struggle after the tough injuries to Aidan Hutchinson and Kyle Peko, but they did record four sacks and a turnover against the Vikings last week, so there are still playmakers here. They now get a matchup against a Titans offense that gives up the most fantasy points to opposing defenses. Even with Mason Rudolph at quarterback last week, the Titans scored 10 points, allowed three sacks, turned the ball over twice, and gained 290 total yards. This is just not a good offense, and even a short-handed Lions defense is going to take advantage of that.
| 3 | Pittsburgh Steelers | vs NYG | 7 |
| 4 | Kansas City Chiefs | at LV | 10 |
| 5 | Los Angeles Chargers | vs NO | 6 |
| 6 | Baltimore Ravens | at CLE | 24 |
| 7 | San Francisco 49ers | vs DAL | 8 |
| 8 | Chicago Bears | at WAS | 3 |
| 9 | Minnesota Vikings | at LAR | 1 |
| 10 | Buffalo Bills | at SEA | 11 |
The Steelers just beat one New York/New Jersey team and now get to play the one with the worse offense. On the season, the Giants give up the sixth-most fantasy points to opposing defenses. Their offensive line is really struggling, and the loss of left tackle Andrew Thomas was a big one. The Steelers’ pass rush hasn’t been as impactful as we’ve seen in the past, but they do still have T.J. Watt and a defense that ranks third in opponent’s scoring rate, fourth in turnover rate, and 12th in tackles for a loss or no gain per game. I expect another strong outing this week.
The Chiefs have been a great real-life defense this season, but have averaged just seven fantasy points per game over the last month. They rank ninth in forced incompletion rate, 13th in opponent’s scoring rate, 14th in turnover rate, and 15th in pass rush production grade, but they get the benefit of a tremendous matchup against a Raiders team that allows the second-most fantasy points to opposing defenses on the year. I don’t think this game will be close at all, so I’m happy to roll the Chiefs out in Week 8.
The Chargers did not deliver against Arizona on Monday night as they continued to play without Joey Bosa and Asante Samuel Jr. I have some optimism that Bosa could return this week, but this is more about a strong matchup against a Saints offense that allows the seventh-most fantasy points to opposing defenses. We know Rashid Shaheed is out for the season, and there is some talk that Derek Carr could miss another week as well. Considering the Chargers lead the NFL in opponent’s scoring rate and are ninth in turnover rate, I like them as a safe option against a banged-up Saints team. If it seems like Carr is trending toward playing, I may move the Chargers down a few spots.
The Vikings continue to be discounted, and I just don’t truly understand it. They have been elite all season, and we’re not ranking them as such. This week they get a Rams team that allows the ninth-most fantasy points to opposing defenses, and I know they could get Cooper Kupp back, but it just doesn’t matter much to me. On the season, the Vikings rank second in opponent’s scoring rate, second in turnover rate, and third in sacks. Maybe I’d move them down into Tier 2 if Kupp were for sure back, but I doubt it. THURSDAY UPDATE: With the news that BOTH Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua are going to play on Thursday, I’ve moved the Vikings down a bit. I don’t think Nacua will play tons of snaps, but the Vikings have been vulnerable to wide receivers, so even a few plays could be an issue. I still like the Vikings as a floor play because of how good they’ve been this year, but the ceiling is a bit lower now.
Did you know the Cowboys give up the 11th-most fantasy points to opposing defenses? This is not the dynamic offense we’re used to seeing, which is good news for a reeling 49ers team that still has a solid defense. The 49ers have allowed more points than we’re used to this year, but they rank second in forced incompletion rate, seventh in turnover rate, and 10th in pass rush production grade. I still expect a solid game against this Cowboys offense, but if we get word that Deebo Samuel is also out, I may move them down a couple of spots because the offense could put the defense in some bad spots.
Much of this ranking is due to the Ravens playing a Browns team that gives up the third-most fantasy points to opposing defenses. We likely get Jamies Winston at quarterback with Deshaun Watson out, and while that may lead to more yardage and points for the Browns offense since Watson has been one of the worst quarterbacks in football this year, we also know that Jameis is prone to some bad throws and turnovers. This is also a Browns offense without Amari Cooper after trading him to the Bills last week. That being said, the Ravens defense has struggled this year. They rank 22nd in pass rush production grade, 24th in opponent’s scoring rate, and 24th in turnover rate. Their secondary has been a bit of a concern this season, but I’m just not sure this is the week it really matters.
The Bills are getting healthier on defense and will now face a Seahawks offense that figures to be without DK Metcalf. The Bills are super vulnerable on the ground, which is still a concern against Kenneth Walker, but they’re also third in tackles for a loss or no gain per game, seventh in opponent’s scoring rate, and eighth in turnover rate. Terrel Bernard did suffer an ankle injury on Sunday, so that’s a situation to monitor because he is crucial for this run defense.
The Packers and Bears are both strong defenses that we need to consider playing even in bad matchups. The Packers matchup is better on the surface, but the Jaguars give up the 21st-most fantasy points to opposing defenses, so they have been bad in real life but not an offense we need to target with our fantasy defenses. Meanwhile, Washington gives up the second-fewest fantasy points to opposing defenses, so they are outright a bad matchup. If Jayden Daniels were to miss then I would likely leapfrog the Bears into the back of Tier 2. SUNDAY UPDATE: Jayden Daniels is apparently going to play but he’s not at 100% and I think this passing will be impacted. That being said, he should avoid sacks in the pocket which will limit some of the Bears’ upside.
So much is wrong with the Jets that it feels hard to recommend playing them, but they also face a Patriots team that could be the worst in the NFL. New England gives up the fifth-most fantasy points to opposing defenses, and even though Drake Maye is better than Jacoby Brissett, the Patriots gained just 295 total yards and allowed two sacks to a Jaguars defense that had looked atrocious before this weekend. The Jets absolutely must win this game to keep any playoff hopes alive, so I expect a strong performance this weekend.
Obviously, this Rams ranking means they’re more of a deeper-league option, but there seems to be a lot of consensus amongst the top 10 defenses this week. Right now, the Rams are sixth in PFF’s Pass Rush Production grade, 12th in turnover rate, and are averaging 10 fantasy points per game over the last four weeks. The Vikings are a good offense, but they also give up the 13th-most fantasy points to opposing defenses, so they’re not an offense we need to avoid. The Vikings offense ranks 23rd in turnover rate and 30th in sack rate allowed, so the Rams have some avenues to put up solid fantasy points to make them deep league relevant.
Meanwhile, the Commanders have a decent matchup against this Bears offense that gives up the 15th-most fantasy points to opposing defenses. The Bears’ offense has been improving, but they rank 27th in sack rate allowed, which could be an issue since the Commanders rank eighth in pass rush production grade. I don’t love the Commanders as a play, but I can see it in deeper formats, as long as Jayden Daniels plays which will force the Bears to pass to keep up.
I’m not sure I want to play the Texans in any format. The Colts give up the sixth-fewest fantasy points to opposing defenses this season. They have the fourth-best sack rate allowed on offense and are middle of the pack in both turnover rate and points scored. That means the Texans will need turnovers to really post a big score here, but they rank 12th in opponents scoring rate and 15th in turnover rate this season. I think they can give you a small handful of points and you can certainly play them in a deeper format if they’re already on your roster, but I just don’t see much upside here.
I do expect Tua Tagovailoa to return this week so that factors into my rankings of the Cardinals. These Falcons and Cowboys rankings are also assuming both Mike Evans and Deebo Samuel don’t play. Their defenses have just been that bad this season for fantasy purposes, averaging five fantasy points per game or less over the last five weeks.
Tier 5 each week will be defenses that I don’t think anybody should play outside of the deepest formats.
