Quarterback
Start: Matthew Stafford, Rams
Stafford has been dealing lately and his upswing has been against the league’s best defenses. He has 802 yards and 10 touchdowns over the past three weeks. His past two games have come against the No. 1 and No. 2 defenses in EPA per dropback allowed, Cleveland and Baltimore. He has the best performance of the season by EPA per play against both teams. This is the best Stafford has looked in the advanced metrics since the Rams’ Super Bowl run and the Commanders don’t have the defense to slow him.
Start: Joe Flacco, Browns
Flacco isn’t a borderline QB1 like Stafford, but he may be the best streaming option available in your fantasy league. Flacco has 565 yards and five touchdowns in two starts. The Browns have also made a philosophical shift with a functional quarterback under center, elevating their pass rate over expected to five percent in his pair of appearances.
Sit: Trevor Lawrence, Jaguars
The Ravens are a nightmare matchup for opposing quarterbacks, giving up just two 20-point games this year. They have allowed the second-fewest fantasy points and EPA per dropback to opposing passers. Lawrence’s top two receivers both have aDOTs over 14 this year, meaning the team is relying solely on explosive plays outside of dump-offs to Evan Engram. That’s a recipe for disaster against a Baltimore defense that has allowed the fewest long gains through the air this year.
Sit: Jake Browning, Bengals
Browning has been impressive since taking over, but an absurd amount of his production has come after the catch. His teammates have generated 559 yards and three touchdowns after the catch in his three starts. That’s over 60 percent of his yards and all but one of his touchdowns coming after the catch point. This week, Browning gets a Minnesota defense that ranks sixth in EPA per dropback allowed and has been doing its best work as of late.
Running Back
Start: Ezekiel Elliott, Patriots
Zeke saw a season-high in every usage metric with Rhamondre Stevenson out for Week 15. He logged 22 carries plus seven catches for a total of 140 yards and a touchdown. He scored more fantasy points in a single game (27) than Tony Pollard has all year. Zeke also earned a 31 percent target share, insulating against the impending negative game script versus Kansas City.
Start: Zack Moss, Colts
Hold the faith folks. You may have been able to guess this, but Moss has crushed every opportunity metric since Jonathan Taylor went down with the thumb injury. He just hasn’t found the end zone. Over the past two weeks, Moss ranks third in expected fantasy points at 41.5. He has only capitalized on 17.3 of them, giving him the worst points over expectation in the league during that short span. We’re going back to the well as many times as it takes, or until Taylor returns.
Sit: Jerome Ford, Browns
There are worse options at running back than Ford, but his lack of goal line carries is punishing for fantasy purposes. Since Kareem Hunt joined the team, he has out-carried Ford 9-3 inside the five. Ford’s last goal line carry came in Week 11. With the fantasy playoffs underway, we want to focus more than ever on ceiling, and Ford’s is limited.
Sit: Javonte Williams, Broncos
The Broncos are four-point dogs to the Lions this week and Williams has struggled to put up fantasy points when his team loses. In five losses, Williams has averaged 7.5 fantasy points on the back of less than a dozen carries. He has posted 11.6 points on 16 carries in wins.
Williams still gets subbed off the field for passing downs, making him extremely dependent on positive game script. With that looking unlikely this week, Williams is an easy fade.
Wide Receiver
Start: Rashee Rice, Chiefs
It finally happened. Rice ran a route on 82 percent of the Chiefs’ dropbacks in Week 14. He earned a 27 percent target share. That number is up to 29 percent over the past three weeks. Patrick Mahomes finally has a clear WR1 and he is good at football for the first time since Tyreek Hill was on this team.
Start: Odell Beckham, Ravens
Beckham has a 21 percent target share and a 35 percent air yards share over the past three weeks. The Jags have given up the eighth-most fantasy points to opposing receivers this year and the Ravens have been leaning pass-heavy lately. They have a three percent pass rate over expected over their past three games.
Beckham’s elite role on an offense that is becoming a better fantasy environment for its pass-catchers makes him a low-end WR3.
Sit: Elijah Moore, Browns
Moore looked like a fun start last week until Amari Cooper was announced as active. Cooper and David Njoku proceeded to soak up all of the volume in the Cleveland passing attack, leaving nothing left for Moore. Moore earned a 15 percent target share in Week 14. He is a desperation WR4 for Week 15.
Sit: George Pickens, Steelers
Pickens hasn’t scored more than 13 PPR points since Diontae Johnson returned from injured reserve and he has just one game with double-digit points over that stretch. He is averaging 1.3 yards per route run over his past six games. That would rank 61st among wide receivers on the entire season.
Tight End
Start: David Njoku, Browns
Njoku ranks sixth in the NFL in target share and his role has been expanding in recent weeks. He spent most of his season being targeted at or near the line of scrimmage but has an aDOT of 7.1 with an air yards share of 17 percent. That’s on top of seeing 20 percent of the team’s targets and 42 percent of their end zone targets in those games.
Start: Dalton Schultz, Texans
With Nico Collins likely out and Tank Dell on injured reserve, Davis Mills is going to have to throw to someone. Schultz leads the remaining Houston receivers in all stats this year. The Texans also get a solid matchup with the Titans. Tennessee ranks 30th in both EPA per dropback and passing success rate allowed.
Sit: Pat Freiermuth, Steelers
Though Kenny Pickett hasn’t been great this year, there’s still room for things to get worse under Mitchell Trubisky. Trubisky has performed worse than Pickett in completion percent over expected, EPA per play, and yards per pass attempt this season. Freiermuth got up to a full complement of routes in Week 14, but that won’t matter if his team can’t move the ball through the air. He sits in the middle of the TE2 ranks for Week 15.
Sit: Tanner Hudson, Bengals
Hudson has only run a route on 36 percent of the Bengals’ passing plays over his past five games. He has managed a 14 percent target share over that span, though it’s hard to expect that to hold on such a low share of the team’s routes. He also gets a Minnesota defense that ranks sixth in EPA per dropback allowed.
