Quarterback
Start: Russell Wilson, Broncos
The 0-3 Broncos have been a disaster this year, but quarterback play hasn’t been the issue. Wilson is ninth in the NFL in EPA per play and third in CPOE. He is also fifth in touchdown rate and sixth in passing yards per attempt. This week, Russ gets a Chicago defense that ranks 31st in EPA per dropback allowed. The Bears’ defense also ranks bottom-five in yards per attempt and touchdown rate allowed.
Start: Justin Fields, Bears
If you thought Denver’s matchup with the Chicago defense was exciting, you’re going to love Chicago’s matchup with the Denver defense. Here are just a few of the passing stats Denver ranks last in the NFL in:
- EPA per dropback (.53)
- Touchdown rate (9.7 percent)
- Yards per attempt (9.4)
- Adjusted yards per attempt (10.9)
A phenomenal matchup through the air should help bolster his passing numbers for a week, and Fields still has his legs to fall back on. He ranks third among quarterbacks in rush attempts and second in yards. Week 4 could be the best version of Fields we see all year.
Sit: Deshaun Watson, Browns
Watson finally looked like the player Cleveland mortgaged their future for in Week 3, but his Week 4 date with Baltimore could be a rude awakening. Vegas gave the Browns a 23.5 team total when the line opened. That has since been bet down by 1.75 points. The total of the game has tumbled to 40.5 since opening at 44. Baltimore’s defense ranks sixth in EPA per dropback allowed and has faced a negative pass rate over expected through three games.
Sit: Matthew Stafford, Rams
Vegas is similarly uninterested in the Rams’ offense heading into Week 4. Their 22.5 implied team total is lower than the Steelers and Giants, among others. By most metrics, Stafford has been average or worse to start the year. He ranks 16th in EPA per dropback, 27th in CPOE, and 21st in adjusted yards per attempt. Stafford’s Week 4 opponent, Indianapolis, has been surprisingly difficult to throw against. They are a top-10 unit in EPA per dropback and adjusted yards per attempt. Stafford remains a low-end QB2 for his date with the Colts.
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Running Back
Start: D’Andre Swift, Eagles
The debate is settled. Swift is him. The Eagles were expected to ride the hot hand in Week 3, and it quickly became apparent that Swift’s gloves were on fire. He racked up 130 yards on 16 attempts and out-carried Kenneth Gainwell 16-8 until the final drive.
D’Andre Swift behind this OL is a cheat code! #FlyEaglesFly pic.twitter.com/8QVQVlmmHv
— All About The Birds (@AATBirds) September 27, 2023
Gainwell took over the grinder duties and tallied six low-value carries once the game was out of reach for the Bucs. Swift should pair solid usage with elite efficiency en route to RB2 numbers versus the Commanders in Week 4.
Start: Zack Moss, Eagles
Since returning to action in Week 2, the Colts have given Moss 91 percent of their running back attempts. That resulted in 30 carries in Week 3, the most attempts a running back has seen in a game this year. He’s also active as a receiver, catching six balls through two games including this dime of a pitch and catch.
Zack Moss leads the NFL in opportunities per game (27.5)
— Ben Cummins (@BenCumminsFF) September 27, 2023
At home against a Rams defense that ranks 25th in EPA/Play and dead last in Rush EPA Allowed
Your Week 4 cash game lock and tournament chalk of the weekpic.twitter.com/sjCvneeHZq
Sit: Brian Robinson, Commanders
Robinson ranks top-10 in the NFL in rushing expected fantasy points but 36th in receiving expected fantasy points (among running backs). He has run a route on less than a third of his team’s dropbacks. All of this is to say that Robinson is a two-down back who will struggle in negative game-script. Unfortunately for him, the Commanders are 8.5-point dogs against a top-five defense in rush EPA per play.
Sit: Dameon Pierce, Texans
Much like Robinson, Pierce doesn’t offer much through the air, so he needs his team to get the ground game going to post usable fantasy numbers. The Texans are three-point dogs to the Steelers this week. Unlike Robinson, Pierce’s matchup isn’t particularly difficult. On the other hand, Pierce has been underwhelming as a runner to start the year. He ranks 28th in Next Gen’s rush yards over expected per attempt and 26th in success rate. As an underdog with a sub-20 team total, Pierce is an easy fade this week.
Wide Receiver
Start: Tutu Atwell, Rams
Stafford may be a long-shot to return a good fantasy outing this week, but that is because volume can only get a quarterback so far up the leaderboard. For most scoring settings, Stafford’s high attempt total isn’t worth any additional fantasy points. For his pass-catchers, that isn’t the case. Atwell ranks 16th in the NFL in targets and is currently the PPR WR15. The Rams have a six percent pass rate over expected this season.
As a slight dog on the road, Atwell should have no problem racking up receptions in LA’s pass-centric offense.
Start: DeVante Parker, Patriots
Parker first took the field in Week 2. Over the past two weeks, he has run a route on 97 percent of the Patriots’ dropbacks. With New England playing at a breakneck pace, that leaves a lot of volume up for grabs in their Week 4 matchup with the Cowboys.
The Patriots averaged 29 seconds per play and ran 59.2 plays per game in 2022. They are averaging 23.3 seconds per play with 72.3 plays per game in 2023.
— Kyle Dvorchak (@kyletweetshere) September 27, 2023
As nearly touchdown underdogs, Mac Jones, who is third in the NFL in attempts and completions, should be forced to drop back north of 50 times. Both Parker and Kendrick Bourne are FLEX-worthy options in PPR leagues.
Sit: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Seahawks
I remain optimistic about JSN’s long-term outlook, but his current usage has him miles from being a viable fantasy option. He has run a route on just under two-thirds of Geno Smith’s dropbacks. He is averaging 4.3 targets per game at a laughably low aDOT of 2.4 yards. Until he starts earning more downfield looks, JSN is unplayable.
Sit: Garrett Wilson, Jets
As expected, the Garrett Wilson with and without Zach Wilson splits remain undefeated after three weeks.
Wilson is dominating the Jets’ receiver opportunities and that has resulted in one game over 50 yards. He needed a 68-yard catch-and-run to get there.
68-YARD GARRETT WILSON TOUCHDOWN!
— Rotoworld by NBC Sports (@rotoworld) September 17, 2023
(via @NFL, CBS) | #TakeFlight
pic.twitter.com/3Jw25TSc3B
Tight End
Start: Evan Engram, Jaguars
The Jaguars are off to a poor start to the year, but Trevor Lawrence is not the issue. He is on pace to set career-highs in Pro Football Focus’s Big Time Throw rate and Turnover Worthy Play rate. Engram has run a route on over 80 percent of Lawrence’s dropbacks and is earning a 19 percent target share. When the Jacksonville offense inevitably rebounds, Engram will come along for the ride as a TE1.
Start: Cole Kmet, Bears
Through three games, Kmet is tied with D.J. Moore for team-highs in receptions (11) and targets (15) on the Bears. The Denver/Chicago game has the fourth-highest total of the week and it has risen 1.5 points since opening. Denver has also faced the seventh-highest pass rate over expected. Play your Bears while you can, because we might not be able to again for a while.
Sit: Dalton Schultz, Texans
Schultz’s route rate of 76 percent is solid but it has dropped in each of the past two weeks. He has only been targeted on 12 percent of his routes and has earned a measly 11 percent target share. With Houston’s receivers showing out early in the season, there isn’t much left on the bone for Schultz.
Sit: Gerald Everett, Chargers
Everett has run a route on over half of Justin Herbert’s dropbacks just once this year. His route rate of 46 percent ranks 32nd among tight ends. On top of the lack of routes, the Chargers are also using Donald Parham as their red zone weapon at tight end.
I think this was Justin Herbert's most underrated throw from Sunday. Pressure in his face, off platform, sidearm, through contact, velocity and ball placement to lead Donald Parham into the end zone. pic.twitter.com/by5ASG68Bs
— Daniel Popper (@danielrpopper) September 27, 2023
Parham has four targets inside the 10-yard line. Everett has one such look and no targets in the end zone.