The Hot Sheet looks at which top players are excelling, and which ones are struggling on a week-to-week basis. Following the latest on-field trends can make our weekly lineup decisions easier while allowing dynasty players to always understand the current value of players around the league.
The value of the players mentioned on the Hot List is rising, thanks to their performance on the field. On the other hand, Cold List players are struggling and losing dynasty value as a result.
Hot List:
1) Keke Coutee, WR HOU
Recent Weekly Fantasy Finishes:
Week Four: WR14
Week Five: WR19
After missing the first three weeks of the season, Texans rookie WR Keke Coutee burst onto the scene with 11 receptions for 109 yards, good for a WR14 finish in Week Four. He didn’t let up last week, catching six balls for 51 yards and his first career touchdown. While only two games into his career, Coutee seems to be the missing piece of the Texans offense, playing over 80% of the team’s snaps to begin his career. Coutee is already being drafted as the WR60 and that number will quickly climb in coming weeks and months.
2) Chris Carson, RB SEA
Recent Weekly Fantasy Finishes:
Week One: RB33
Week Two: RB65
Week Three: RB7
Week Five: RB22
Second-year RB Chris Carson has already overcome a lot of adversity in his short career. First, as a late round pick a year ago, he ascended to the starting role, though his time was quickly cut short with a season-ending injury. The Seahawks surprisingly spent their first-rounder on rookie RB Rashaad Penny, yet Carson still easily won the starting job in training camp. In Week Three, Carson posted his first 100-yard rushing game and after missing Week Four with an injury, he returned to the field last week with another 100+ yards. Carson is becoming a safe weekly option despite the struggles of the Seattle offense but surprisingly, the rookie Penny still carries more dynasty value. That might not last much longer.
3) Adam Thielen, WR MIN
Recent Weekly Fantasy Finishes:
Week Two: WR2
Week Three: WR6
Week Four: WR6
Week Five: WR6
The season Vikings WR Adam Thielen is putting together is pretty ridiculous, in a good way. Thielen currently leads the league in targets (66, tied with WR Antonio Brown), receptions (47) and of course, fantasy points (124). After his respectable Week One WR24 rank, Thielen has cranked out four consecutive top six or better fantasy finishes. He’s also the first player in NFL history to begin the season with five consecutive games of 100+ yards. Still though, dynasty players seem reluctant to aggressively move Thielen up their ranks. Maybe it is his status as a former undrafted free agent or maybe it is the multiple years Thielen bounced around practice squads before actually making an impact. Thielen showed up as the WR12 on recent dynasty ADP and his overall rank of 24 is a new high mark for the Vikings receiver.
4) James Conner, RB PIT
Recent Weekly Fantasy Finishes:
Week Two: RB8
Week Three: RB22
Week Four: RB31
Week Five: RB1
It has been a bit of an up and down ride early this season for Steelers RB James Conner. He didn’t let a pair of average performances or rumors of the return of RB Le’Veon Bell slow him down. For the second time this season, Conner totaled at least 185 yards and scored twice in Week Five, cementing his value as a top 15 dynasty option at his position. In fact, recent dynasty ADP places Conner at the RB14 spot, ahead of players like RB Devonta Freeman, among others. Of course, Conner and the Steelers will eventually have to deal with Bell and that situation will continue to impact each players’ dynasty value. Conner fantasy owners can be comforted by the continued trade rumors surrounding Bell, even after his Week Seven plan was reported.
5) Sony Michel, RB NE
Recent Weekly Fantasy Finishes:
Week Two: RB50
Week Three: RB47
Week Four: RB16
Week Five: RB15
After a rough beginning to his career that saw dynasty players already jumping off the bandwagon, rookie RB Sony Michel of the Patriots has started to play well and his dynasty value is growing as a result. Michel’s current ADP of 41 is a new season best thanks to a pair of strong performances since taking over as the primary ball carrier following the injury to veteran RB Rex Burkhead. Over the past three weeks, Michel trails only Ezekiel Elliott and Todd Gurley in rushing yards. Already being valued as the RB17, I expect Michel to push for top 12 status by the end of the season.
Other Players Considered: DeAndre Hopkins, George Kittle, Todd Gurley, Carson Wentz, Zach Ertz, Philip Rivers, Melvin Gordon, David Njoku, Javorius Allen, Andy Dalton, Cam Newton, Odell Beckham, Saquon Barkley, Sterling Shepard, Isaiah Crowell, Kenny Golladay, Davante Adams, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Antonio Brown, Mohamed Sanu, Ben Roethlisberger, T.J. Yeldon, Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, Andrew Luck, Nyheim Hines, Eric Ebron, James White, Drew Brees
Cold List:
1) Jay Ajayi, RB PHI
Recent Weekly Fantasy Finishes:
Week One: RB12
Week Two: RB31
Week Four: RB27
Week Five: RB56
Don’t get me wrong. Eagles RB Jay Ajayi shows up on this list mostly due to his recent season-ending ACL injury and the impact that will have on his long-term value. That being said, Ajayi was already massively struggling and quickly losing dynasty value prior to the injury. Since he tumbled down the 2015 draft due to a reported serious knee condition, Ajayi has been viewed as an injury risk by many fantasy players. Because of this, he’s often offered excellent value in drafts and trades. Now that his season is over, his future is in doubt as he prepares to enter free agency following the season. Ajayi’s current dynasty ADP of 79 is his lowest mark in two years and we should expect that downward trend to continue.
2) Mike Williams, WR LAC
Recent Weekly Fantasy Finishes:
Week Two: WR49
Week Three: WR7
Week Four: WR100
Week Five: WR64
Things have not gone as expected for the Chargers 2017 first-round pick WR Mike Williams. Saddled with nagging injuries during his rookie year, Williams played just nine games and only caught more than two passes one time. Expectations varied wildly as the 2018 season neared with some fantasy players ready to tab Williams as a bust and other holding tight to that draft capital. Williams has been more involved this season, as was expected after TE Hunter Henry was lost for the season. Other than the Week Three outburst, Williams has been a third or fourth option on the Chargers high-powered offense, which just isn’t good enough for fantasy players.
3) Antonio Callaway, WR CLE
Recent Weekly Fantasy Finishes:
Week Two: WR24
Week Three: WR67
Week Four: WR63
Week Five: WR82
Things looked great for Browns rookie WR Antonio Callaway early on. Despite a preseason brush with the law, the Browns not only stuck with Callaway, who has a lengthy history of off-field issues, they even named him as a Week One starter. After a quiet season-opener, Callaway flashed in Week Two and soon the Browns dealt veteran WR Josh Gordon. That was seen as a vote of confidence for Callaway and the Week Three move to rookie QB Baker Mayfield was also viewed as a plus for the speedy rookie wideout. None of these things have been enough for Callaway to make a continued impact. Callaway is now back to what we thought he was in the offseason, a talented player that could be a year away from contributing to our fantasy teams.
4) Mike Gesicki, TE MIA
Recent Weekly Fantasy Finishes:
Week Two: TE59
Week Three: TE30
Week Four: TE45
Week Five: TE24
I have to admit something. This preseason, I projected in multiple mediums that Dolphins rookie TE Mike Gesicki would finish the season as a TE1, a top 12 fantasy scorer at his position. As you can see with his weekly ranks above, he’s far from that pace currently. In fact, even in a year in which tight ends have struggled to stay on the field, Gesicki still ranks as the TE47. This is not to say dynasty players should give up on the talented Gesicki but we should probably give up on any expectations for this season. The Dolphins simply aren’t throwing the ball enough for any of their pass-catchers to make a consistent impact. QB Ryan Tannehill has through just 129 passes through five games, ranking 25thin the league and behind several quarterbacks who’ve played only four games.
5) Alex Smith, QB WAS
Recent Weekly Fantasy Finishes:
Week One: QB11
Week Two: QB28
Week Three: QB16
Week Five: QB22
When veteran QB Alex Smith was dealt to the Redskins before the 2017 season even ended, there were immediate high expectations placed on last year’s QB4. Although his offensive weapons in Washington were a downgrade, the Redskins were fully committed to Smith, something we obviously couldn’t say about the Chiefs. Also, Washington HC Jay Gruden had a history of getting the best out of his quarterbacks, as evidenced by multiple QB1 seasons from Bengals QB Andy Dalton and former Redskins QB Kirk Cousins. Through four games, the Redskins are 2-2 and Smith has failed to throw for 300 yards in a single game, something he did five times during his career-year in 2017. When you’re disappointing early in the season, your dynasty value takes a slight hit. When you’re a 34-year-old quarterback with one QB1 season in your career, your dynasty value plummets.
Other Players Considered: Dak Prescott, Larry Fitzgerald, Pierre Garcon, Ricky Seals-Jones, Latavius Murray, Amari Cooper, Alex Collins, Kenny Stills, D.J. Moore, Marcus Mariota, Derrick Henry, Dion Lewis, Kelvin Benjamin, Josh Allen, Jamaal Williams, Tevin Coleman, Leonard Fournette, Rashaad Penny, Ronald Jones
