The Hot Sheet looks at which top prospects are excelling and which ones are struggling on a week-to-week basis. The consensus top-flight players may not always appear on this list because we are trying to help you find the next group of breakout players before your leaguemates do.
The value of the players mentioned on the Hot List is rising, thanks to their performance on the field. On the other hand, Cold List players are struggling, and losing dynasty value as a result.
Hot List:
1) Spencer Ware, RB KC
Third year back Spencer Ware got another opportunity to carry the load for the Chiefs in Week One thanks to the slower than expected ACL recovery of veteran Jamaal Charles and he made the most of it. Ware racked up nearly 200 total yards and a score in the Kansas City comeback win. He was so impressive in fact that the Chiefs are now reportedly being very cautious with Charles as he presumably nears a return to the field. Identifying Ware’s current value in dynasty leagues could be difficult. After all, many are hesitant about investing in running backs at all, let alone those who could be returning to the bench in the coming weeks. Regardless, we know his value is climbing and the longer this lasts, the larger role we can expect for the former LSU Tiger, even when Charles is back.
2) Jameis Winston, QB TB
After a solid rookie season in 2015, many expected to see even more growth for Buccaneers quarterback Jameis Winston. After all, many of the off-field issues Winston brought upon himself in college now seem to be completely in his past, meaning we can now strictly focus on Winston’s play on the field. That is a positive considering his play was so, so good in Week One. Winston led the Bucs to a divisional win over Atlanta, throwing four touchdowns to four difference receivers. Winston made us of his tight ends and running backs early on and then had the dagger, a 45-yard score to star Mike Evans. Winston was already being valued as the QB5 in dynasty leagues and he’s rewarding those who took a chance on him over more established options.
3) Tajae Sharpe, WR TEN
Almost no one noticed when the Tennessee Titans spent a day three pick on Tajae Sharpe, a former UMass wideout, but through pre-season and one official NFL game, Sharpe is making sure everyone knows his name. I’m not sure I can ever recall a rookie receiver being named as a starter before training camp even begins, but that is what happened in Sharpe’s case after an impressive mini-camp. Most scoffed at this idea and continued drafting Dorial Green-Beckham early in their dynasty drafts, myself included. Sharpe continued to gain some hype through training camp and pre-season and got off to a hot start in last week’s matchup against Minnesota, hauling in seven balls for 76 yards. While the statline alone is not eye-popping, his market share and snap count in comparison to the other wide receivers on the roster shows he’s easily the WR1 for the Titans moving forward. Of course, the decision makers in Tennessee were so sure of this, they sent Green-Beckham packing.
4) Willie Snead, WR NO
We expected that Week One tilt between New Orleans and Oakland to be a shootout and it didn’t disappoint, as the Raiders squeaked out a one-point win after going for a two-point conversion to take the lead, bypassing the extra point for the potential tie. It was a fitting ending for overall amazing game that was especially rewarding for fantasy players. Saints quarterback Drew Brees threw for over 400 yards and star receiver Brandin Cooks scored the longest touchdown in Saints history, but what really caught my attention was the play of Willie Snead. After last season’s breakout, there were some concerns if Snead could put up big numbers, following the addition of Coby Fleener and Michael Thomas, but Snead showed that he will get his chances too, catching a team-high nine passes for 172 yards, along with one touchdown. I still think we’ll see some flip flopping with variety of weapons Brees has at his disposal, but Snead is at the very least in the conversation with the other stars on the team.
5) Carson Wentz, QB PHI
On the first Sunday of NFL football this season, we were blessed with countless close games, but the one game that could be viewed as a blowout from Sunday’s slate was the Eagles taking out the hapless Cleveland Browns. This might be notable for dynasty players as Philadelphia was of course led by rookie quarterback Carson Wentz. While his fellow first round signal callers were riding the pine, Wentz was called into action at the last minute and you never would’ve known the difference. As you know, Wentz was quickly elevated to the starter’s role following the trade of Sam Bradford to the Vikings. Wentz had played little in pre-season due to a minor injury, but he’s shown enough. Wentz threw for 278 yards and a pair of scores. Perhaps most importantly, he did not throw any interceptions as he focused on Jordan Matthews and Zach Ertz. With a team full of relatively young skill players, this could be the beginning of a very successful run for the Eagles, though that could be a year away.
6) Theo Riddick, RB DET
Lions pass-catching back Theo Riddick surprised us a season ago as a PPR dynamo and he’s picking up right where he left off. Riddick had 108 total yards on 12 touches and found the end zone twice in the Lions huge road win in Indianapolis. Riddick and all other pass-catchers on the Lions had to fight and scrape for any looks they could get that didn’t belong to Calvin Johnson. With the superstar now retired, the targets should be more evenly distributed between Riddick, Golden Tate, Marvin Jones and Eric Ebron, which means the former Notre Dame back should be able to maintain this level of yardage production, though the pair of scores will clearly be a rare event.
7) Quincy Enunwa, WR NYJ
If you somehow missed Week One of the NFL action, you would feel safe in assuming either Eric Decker or Brandon Marshall led the Jets in receiving, but you would be wrong. Second-year receiver Quincy Enunwa, who was rarely used a year ago, led the Jets with seven receptions, more than his teammates Decker and Marshall had combined. While the veterans got back on track in Thursday’s win over the Bills, Enunwa proved that his opening week performance was no fluke as he was targeted early and often. I was disappointed that I was late to adding Enunwa to my own dynasty rosters, especially since I was fond of him coming out of Nebraska a couple of years ago. Hopefully you have better luck and he is still available for you to add to your team.
8) Phillip Dorsett, WR IND
I’ve said it before, but after last Sunday, I would be very worried if I was a Colts fan. We knew entering the season that the Colts defense, especially their secondary, would be a weakness and they seemingly dealt with injuries throughout the game against the Lions. Ultimately, they could stop the Lions and fell just short of matching them. Quarterback Andrew Luck threw for 385 yards and four scores. Although second-year wideout Philip Dorsett wasn’t the beneficiary of any of those scoring passes, he did lead the team with 94 yards, more than doubling his previous career best. With T.Y. Hilton and Donte Moncrief keeping the attention of the defense, Dorsett should continue to see a huge opportunity.
9) Tevin Coleman, RB ATL
There were multiple reports over the weeks leading up to the regular season that the Falcons would employ more of a committee attack, featuring both Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman. This makes a lot of sense, considering it was Coleman who won the job a year ago as a rookie before suffering an injury and losing the gig to Freeman. While Coleman played sparingly going forward, Freeman looked like a beast and quickly rose up dynasty ranks. On Sunday, those reports proved to be true as Freeman touched the ball 15 times for 40 yards and Coleman had 13 touches for 117 yards, leading the team in receiving. While this does not necessarily mean Coleman should worth more than Freeman going forward, the dynasty market will take the next few weeks to narrow the gap in their value.
10) Carlos Hyde, RB SF
San Francisco running back Carlos Hyde comes ready to play in Week One. In 2015, Hyde played his best game of the year by far in the season opener, totaling 182 yards and a pair of touchdowns. Hyde didn’t reach the century yardage mark again that season as he dealt with an injury the eventually ended his season prematurely. He didn’t get to the 100-yard mark last week either, but he did rush for a pair of scores as the 49ers dominated the Rams. I had low expectations for the San Fran offense entering the season and things get tougher from here, but this was clearly a nice start for the Chip Kelly era.
Others considered: Will Fuller, Jalen Richard, Tyrell Williams, A.J. Green, Lamar Miller, C. J. Anderson, Jordan Matthews, Stefon Diggs, Brandin Cooks, Eric Ebron, Danny Woodhead
Cold List:
1) Todd Gurley, RB LA
In 2015, Todd Gurley’s rookie year, the Rams were bad, but Gurley made us forget about that as he put up monster numbers, especially in the late stages of games week in and week out. This clearly spoiled fantasy players who expected a repeat in 2016, both from the Rams and Gurley. While the Rams lived up… or down, to expectations in Week One, their star back did not. Of course, he is not totally to blame for this as the Rams have no passing game despite spending the top overall pick on a quarterback and rewarding their top receiver Tavon Austin with a brand new long-term contract that pays him way more than he deserves. This is very disappointing for Gurley’s sake and while things won’t always be as bad as his 17/47 box score against the Niners, there will be quite a few other games this year that look like this. Gurley’s dynasty value will be affected, though won’t totally fall apart due to his amazing talent. He could easily fall behind Ezekiel Elliott, David Johnson and others in dynasty rankings. Now might be the ideal time to start sending offers for Gurley, if you can afford to keep him on your bench at points through the rest of this season.
2) Tyler Lockett, WR SEA
One of the hottest names of the off-season among dynasty players was Seattle wide receiver Tyler Lockett. Coming off a solid rookie season, Lockett was expected to see a bigger share of the Seahawks pass offense, which was also projected to see more volume, in general. The Week One slugfest against Miami was ugly all-around, with little offense on either side. That might be enough to make me scrap the results and write it off as a down game for Lockett, I saw some things that concern me. First, this is not a team that looks intent on passing much more than they did a year ago. While they lost Marshawn Lynch, they do have a pair of productive backs to lean on in Christine Michael and Thomas Rawls. Also, Lockett seemed to be far down the list of Russell Wilson’s favorite targets. Doug Baldwin saw three times the number of targets as Lockett and Jermaine Kearse nearly doubled him up. Simply put, the volume may not support the projected breakout for Lockett.
3) Dak Prescott, QB DAL and Ezekiel Elliott, RB DAL
The off-season is all about hype for dynasty players and it is important to decide which player’s hype to believe. The Dallas Cowboys have been the center of attention for much of the past few months, as they often are. In this case, it was due to a pair of rookies, first round draft pick Ezekiel Elliott and late round pick and Tony Romo replacement Dak Prescott. The expectations surrounding both reached epic levels as the season approached, with Elliott being ranked as highly as the RB1 in dynasty leagues. While I wouldn’t consider the Cowboys game a huge disappointment for either player, they also didn’t do enough to make their dynasty owners confident. Prescott threw for 227 yards, but no touchdowns. He also found star Dez Bryant just once on the day, something that must change for the team to win. Elliott carried the ball 20 times, but only earned 51 yards on the day. He did score his first career touchdown, hopefully the first of many.
4) DeVante Parker, WR MIA
One player losing some dynasty value without even suiting up in Week One is Dolphins second-year wideout DeVante Parker. Parker missed the team’s game in Seattle with a hamstring injury, just as he missed the beginning of his rookie season last year. Early in the off-season, Parker was a dynasty favorite, begin drafted as a top 20 player overall. It seems each year, one player is greatly overdrafted due to unrealistic expectations. We may have already found the 2016 version in Parker. The Dolphins offense clearly lacked some playmakers, so hopefully Parker can return to the field soon, maybe even this weekend. A quick return and some big plays could be all it takes to give the Dolphins a boost and recoup the dynasty value for the former Louisville Cardinal.
5) Demaryius Thomas, WR DEN
The season kicked off with a Super Bowl rematch, won again by the Denver Broncos. While the Broncos, led by little known quarterback Trevor Siemian, did enough to get the win, it was not exactly the high-powered Denver offense we’ve become accustomed to. Star receiver Demaryius Thomas had just four catches for 48 yards and also suffered a hip injury that looks like it could cause him trouble moving forward. Thomas tentatively appears to be a game-time decision for this week, but this could be something that nags him for several weeks down the road. Our own Rich Hribar suggested this off-season that Thomas’s days as an elite weekly option were already over, and just one week into the season, he could be right.
Others considered: Laquon Treadwell, Devonta Freeman, Keenan Allen, Devin Funchess, Kevin White, Robert Griffin III, Dez Bryant, Matt Jones, Kirk Cousins, Josh Doctson, Coby Fleener
