Entering the 2013 NFL season, dynasty owners had been spoiled by the Big Five wide receivers, which included Calvin Johnson, AJ Green, Julio Jones, Demaryius Thomas and Dez Bryant. The combination of elite play and relatively youthful age created a rather large gap between this quintet and the next tier of pass catchers. Of course, suspended Browns receiver Josh Gordon crashed that exclusive group and the Big Five suddenly became the Big Six. It just took a dominant fourteen game stretch following Gordon’s two game suspension to vault him into the elite tier. Of course, we know now that Gordon’s violation of the NFL’s substance abuse policy got him booted from that group just as quickly. While we know his talent earned him a spot as a first round startup pick, his decisions off the field have temporarily destroyed his dynasty value.
With that said, maybe there’s a chance the Big Five can again become a Big Six as we near the kickoff of the 2014 season. It is almost impossible to predict when a player will break out and become an elite player, but each of today’s six could fit the mold. While there are many receivers who currently rank ahead of some of these players, they don’t fit all the categories necessary to make the leap in dynasty value. While players like http://www.nbcsports.com/edge/player/NFL/3653/Brandon-MarshallBrandon Marshall, Jordy Nelson and Pierre Garcon are certainly in for big years, they are simply too old to be considered for this elite tier in a long term dynasty league.
1. Alshon Jeffery, CHI
Many would already consider Bears wide receiver Alshon Jeffery as a de facto member of the previously mention elite tier. Although he is already being drafted in the first round of most startups and is nearly universally viewed as the WR6 in dynasty leagues, I still have trouble including him in the top tier for a couple of reasons. First, few dynasty owners seemed to view Jeffery in that group prior to the Gordon suspension new surfaced. It’s as if dynasty players felt the need to fill the void in the Big Six and simply promoted the next guy in line. While Jeffery’s 2013 season was impressive, it wasn’t quite at the Gordon level.
While I don’t think Jeffery is locked in as a member of that group yet, he is certainly on his way. As I mentioned, he’s already a first round startup pick and according to most dynasty rankings and ADP lists, he’s the highest valued wide receiver other than the top five. Jeffery vaulted himself into the conversation in 2013 when he more than tripled his reception and yardage totals, while finding the end zone seven times. Expect Jeffery to continue to explode as part of Marc Trestman’s dynamic offense and if he can replicate his numbers from 2013, perhaps in a more consistent way, his value will continue to rise.
2. Michael Floyd, ARZ
Another receiver already being highly valued, at least in part due to some very high expectations, is the Cardinals’ Michael Floyd. Like Gordon and Jeffery, Floyd too had a big 2013 season, though it was overshadowed by the other young receivers, not to mention the future Hall of Famer lining up on the other side of the field, Larry Fitzgerald. Floyd went over 1,000 yards for the first time and led the team in that category, though Fitzgerald easily outpaced him in catches and touchdowns. The expectation is the offense will step up and continue the improvement it showed in the latter portion of the 2013 season. If that happens, look for even more opportunities for Floyd, who should continue the subtle transformation into Arizona’s top receiver.
3. Keenan Allen, SD
This time last year, dynasty owners were bashing incoming rookie receiver Keenan Allen, worried about his foot injury and his lack of production during his final season at Cal. Now, after one year with the San Diego Chargers, those same dynasty owners are spending their time looking for “the next Keenan Allen.” I don’t blame them. After falling from the likely 1.01 rookie pick all the way to the end, or even out of the first round in many drafts, Allen quickly became the Chargers’ top receiver. It’s easy to speculate how he could join the game’s elite tier after breaking 1,000 yards and scoring eight times.
Allen, at just 22 years old, will remain the top receiving option in San Diego as the team made few changes to their passing offense during the offseason. After journeyman receiver Eddie Royal surprised everyone with six touchdowns, there is an opportunity for Allen to increase his fantasy scoring and dynasty value by stealing some of those scores for himself.
4. Mike Evans, TB
While Buffalo’s Sammy Watkins is the more ballyhooed rookie receiver, it’s Tampa Bay’s Mike Evans who fits the recent mold of an elite receiver, standing at a beastly 6’5” and weighing over 230 pounds. Although he is certain to remain behind veteran Vincent Jackson in the pass catcher pecking order, he could show enough to ascend to the elite tier, much like we’ve seen others rise after giving us just a peek at their potential.
Evans dominated SEC competition during his two years in College Station, totaling over 150 receptions and just shy of 2,500 receiving yards to go along with 17 scores. A rookie year stat line similar to that of DeAndre Hopkins last year - 52 receptions for 802 yards - would likely be enough to increase Evans’ dynasty value, especially if he can add six to eight touchdowns to those numbers.
5. Cordarrelle Patterson, MIN
A quick look at the receiving stats of Vikings’ receiver Cordarrelle Patterson is uninspiring, but there is more to the story. As a rookie, he caught 45 passes for nearly 500 yards and four scores. Don’t forget though, he added another 158 rushing yards and three more touchdowns. Oh yeah, he also gained nearly 1,400 yards on kickoff returns, including two that he ran all the way back for a touchdown. That’s a total of 2,020 yards and nine touchdowns for the explosive second year man.
As dynasty owners have been searching for the next Gordon-like breakout player, Patterson has been a popular choice and his dynasty ADP has blown up as a result. Patterson is already being drafted among the top 20 players in all of dynasty and is being valued as a high end WR2.
With the Vikings’ off-season additions of rookie quarterback Teddy Bridgewater and even more importantly, offensive coordinator Norv Turner, expect Patterson to be even more involved as a pass catcher, which might just be enough to make the Big Five a Big Six again.
6. Justin Hunter, TEN
Although he’s currently the lowest ranked and lowest valued of the receivers on this list, the situation of Titans wide receiver Justin Hunter is the one that reminds me most of Gordon a year ago. Both have a good combination of size and speed and just as Gordon quickly made a move atop the Browns depth chart, Hunter could do the same in Tennessee, even with the presence of PPR machine Kendall Wright.
After a troubling rookie pre-season in which he was dealing with nagging injuries as well as a lackluster effort, things have completely turned around for Hunter as he’s receiving mostly glowing reports during this pre-season. Hunter has the longest rise needed to land among the Big Six, but his current value is similar to that of Gordon and Jeffery a year ago.
