SLEEPERS
1. Charles Johnson, WR, Vikings
Stolen off the Browns’ practice squad early last year, Johnson emerged as a starter by mid-November and posted numbers that extrapolate to 60-949-5 over the final seven games. At the Owners Meetings this past February, Vikings OC Norv Turner described Johnson as “far and away our best receiver.” The Vikings released Greg Jennings one month later and passed on DeVante Parker in the draft. Johnson is a prime breakout candidate at the high-volume “X” position manned by Michael Irvin and Vincent Jackson in Turner’s past offenses. Mike Wallace will be the field-stretching “Z,” a la Alvin Harper and Malcom Floyd.
2. Josh Hill, TE, Saints
While target-monster usage similar to predecessor Jimmy Graham seems unlikely, Hill’s table is set for a breakout year. The Saints’ best passing-game alternatives are Brandin Cooks, Marques Colston and Nick Toon in an offense that wants to run the ball but still may find itself in plenty of shootouts due to a suspect defense. A top-shelf athlete for the position, Hill runs 4.66 with a 10-foot-7 broad jump and 36 1/2-inch vertical at 6-foot-5 and 246 pounds. Through two NFL seasons, Hill has scored six touchdowns on 30 career targets.
3. Ameer Abdullah, RB, Lions
Abdullah was a dynamic every-down workhorse at Nebraska, topping 1,300 all-purpose yards in each of his final three seasons. Also a terrific athlete, Abdullah posted the highest SPARQ score among running backs at the Combine, notably acing the explosion and agility tests. Drafted 54th overall by Detroit, Abdullah’s primary competition for lead-back duties is 29-year-old Joique Bell, who’s failed to reach 4.0 yards per carry in back-to-back years while undergoing three lower leg surgeries over the past two offseasons.
4. Allen Robinson, WR, Jaguars
Despite missing his entire first NFL offseason due to a hamstring injury, Robinson emerged as the Jaguars’ top receiver as a rookie. His pace stats across eight starts were 86-964-4. Standing 6-foot-3, 220, Robinson has an absurd 42-inch vertical and explosive 10-foot-11 broad jump with 4.47 speed as timed at his Pro Day. If the Jaguars are bad again - and their Vegas win projection is a league-worst 5.5 - Robinson could be a target monster who benefits from comeback-mode passing. He offers low-end WR1 upside at a WR2/3 cost.
5. Breshad Perriman, WR, Ravens
At 6-foot-2 and 212 pounds with 4.26 speed, Perriman was certified by future Hall of Fame GM Ozzie Newsome who selected him in the first round of May’s draft. Perriman’s penchant for drops at Central Florida was severely overblown based on our college tape study, and his opportunity is unrivaled in this year’s receiver class. Baltimore is missing 216 targets from its 2014 pass-catcher corps. Perriman has the potential to become Joe Flacco‘s No. 1 option as a rookie. Perriman is a player to pursue aggressively in Dynasty and re-draft leagues alike.
6. Brian Quick, WR, Rams
Although it’s lost upon many because he missed the final nine games of the season due to a severe shoulder injury, Quick opened 2014 seeing legitimate No. 1-receiver caliber usage. Drawing nine targets in three of St. Louis’ first four games, Quick was on an 84-1,288-12 pace in the initial month before quarterback woes and injury derailed his season. This offseason, St. Louis upgraded under center and did very little to bolster its wideout corps. Quick’s fantasy draft cost is minimal, and he will offer WR2 upside entering his contract year.
7. John Brown, WR, Cardinals
A 4.34 burner out of little-known Pittsburg State, Brown drew Marvin Harrison comparisons from head coach Bruce Arians with a 60-800-9 statistical pace over his first seven NFL games. As Arizona experienced multiple injuries at quarterback and a Rookie Wall was hit, Brown slumped in the second half. Carson Palmer (ACL) should be ready for Week 1, while the Cardinals tried to trade disappointing deep threat Michael Floyd in the offseason. Larry Fitzgerald is 32 years old. Brown is a sneaky bet to lead the 2015 Cardinals in receiving.
8. Danny Woodhead, RB, Chargers
Woodhead finished as a top-25 fantasy running back in both 2012 and 2013 before missing all but three 2014 games with a fractured fibula and ankle. The Chargers traded up to draft Melvin Gordon, who will have early-down carries locked down. Gordon’s weaknesses coming out of Wisconsin include pass blocking and receiving, which happen to be Woodhead’s strengths. Woodhead probably won’t win you your league, but he could certainly be a quality flex play in PPR leagues. And he typically lasts until the final rounds of drafts.
Busts
1. Joique Bell, RB, Lions
Before the draft, Bell was poised to enter 2015 with ineffectiveness, age and injury concerns. He’s managed a 3.88 yards-per-carry average the past two seasons, and turns 29 in August. After having a knee scoped last offseason, Bell underwent knee and Achilles procedures this spring. The draft brought second-round pick Ameer Abdullah, an explosive playmaker with some Ray Rice to his game. Bell is tentatively expected to open 2015 as the Lions’ starter. Even if he gets that far, it’s hard to imagine Bell’s lead-back grip lasting long.
2. Drew Brees, QB, Saints
Although Brees finished as last year’s No. 6 fantasy passer, he required league highs in pass attempts and completions to do it while repeatedly flopping in prime matchups versus soft defenses. At age 36, Brees is no longer capable of shouldering the offensive load. The Saints identified Brees as a declining player, evidenced by pouring offseason resources into their offensive line, running game and defense. Brees also lost three of his top passing-game weapons (Jimmy Graham, Kenny Stills and Pierre Thomas). Slowing down, stripped of playmakers and certain to lose volume, Brees is a candidate to be overdrafted on big-name appeal.
3. Sammy Watkins, WR, Bills
Watkins’ ho-hum rookie season has been attributed to poor quarterback play, but last year’s No. 4 overall pick deserves blame, too. Watkins disappointed with his ability to win 50:50 balls, while his post-catch production was only average. Watkins’ QB play won’t improve much in year two, and the Bills will be even more run committed under ground-and-pounders Greg Roman and Rex Ryan. Watkins is coming off hip surgery and has more target competition following the additions of Charles Clay, Percy Harvin and LeSean McCoy. While Watkins is still a promising talent, he’s destined to take a step back before taking two forward.
4. Andre Ellington, RB, Cardinals
Ellington was an effective change-of-pace back as a rookie. He flopped spectacularly in a 2014 feature back role, averaging 3.28 yards per carry, frequently getting benched in short-yardage situations and breaking down physically with sports hernia, foot and hip injuries. Seemingly aware of Ellington’s limitations, the Cards used a third-round pick on David Johnson and immediately referred to Johnson as a “three-down back.” Ellington returns as the starter, but he’s going to lose a ton of touches and perhaps eventually his job altogether.
5. Darren McFadden, RB, Cowboys
The problem with McFadden is no longer that he’s “injury prone.” The problem is that he isn’t good. Whereas McFadden managed a 3.34 yards-per-carry average in Oakland the past three seasons, teammates Mike Goodson (6.31), Latavius Murray (5.17), Marcel Reece (4.56) and Rashad Jennings (4.50) all severely outperformed him behind the same offensive line. While landing in Dallas sparked intrigue among fantasy leaguers, McFadden, in all likelihood, will get beaten out by Joseph Randle, Ryan Williams and/or Lance Dunbar.
6. Julius Thomas, TE, Jaguars
“Orange Julius” has gone from one of the NFL’s highest-volume offenses with a Hall of Fame quarterback to a team that wants to pound the rock and is quarterbacked by arguably the league’s worst passer. Thomas’ presence might make Blake Bortles’ job easier at times, but Julius won’t come anywhere near his Denver production. Let someone else draft him.
7. Victor Cruz, WR, Giants
Cruz was already showing signs of annual decline prior to tearing his right patellar tendon last October. Patellar tendon tears are among the worst injuries in pro sports, far more severe than torn ACLs and debilitating to patients, frequently costing them explosion and change-of-direction skills. The Giants should be happy if Cruz returns as a useful possession receiver. It’s highly unlikely that Cruz recaptures difference-making form in real life or fantasy.
8. Bishop Sankey, RB, Titans
An ordinary talent who lacked tangible strengths on college film, Sankey endured a predictably pedestrian rookie season, averaging an anemic 3.74 yards per carry, struggling to learn an NFL passing game and failing to convincingly hold off the likes of Shonn Greene and Dexter McCluster for usage. The Titans drafted David Cobb, a superior between-the-tackles runner. Sankey would be best utilized as a complementary lesser half of a RB committee.
